December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There is alot of optimism for January but soo much seems to be pending on the NAO which hasnt exactly worked in our favor in recent history....at least not locked in, transient at best for whatever scientific reason. Also the SSW dartboard and the PV is another big chance we are taking. Imo it's great to have a juicy stj and to be optimistic and roll the dice with that ingredient, but like alway we still require much more for things to actually play out and for I95 areas to cash in. Curious to see what transpires over the next 6 weeks specifically.

I still suspect we will see a 'sustained' period with a -NAO, but probably later in the month and especially into Feb. Looks like the pattern may be more influenced by the PNA/EPO over the next 2-3 weeks.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Jandurin said:

Not true. Every day that passes brings us 1 day closer to the epic snowstorm or summer. Whichever comes first.

January thaw is traditionally around the 3rd week of the month right? That's about the time many folks are predicting the 'epic pattern' arrival. I wonder if somehow these cancel each other out and we just continue the general meh pattern? 

[Jandurin]

Can't thaw what was never frozen!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thaw_(weather)

http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/thaw/thaw.html

Funny there's an actual wiki on this "January thaw" and also a debunk of it within the wiki.

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

January thaw is traditionally around the 3rd week of the month right? That's about the time many folks are predicting the 'epic pattern' arrival. I wonder if somehow these cancel each other out and we just continue the general meh pattern? 

Anyone's guess I assume.  I am not sure the January thaw is anything more than just a break in the winter or pattern reshuffle.  That can happen anytime.  No need for a thaw if nothing is frozen. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I don't think the GEFS looks all that great out to 384.  It looks like mostly Pacific air dominated to my untrained eye.  Nothing that says epic unless I am out of my mind.  Always possible.

It's a step process. We have to get the ridging up top then get it to retrograde enough to get troughing to build under it. The end of the gefs looks fine in terms of a step towards that. January 15-20 remember. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still suspect we will see a 'sustained' period with a -NAO, but probably later in the month and especially into Feb. Looks like the pattern may more influenced by the PNA/EPO over the next 2-3 weeks.

If we dont cash in somehow before then things are going to be ugly in here. Fingers crossed.

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I still suspect we will see a 'sustained' period with a -NAO, but probably later in the month and especially into Feb. Looks like the pattern may more influenced by the PNA/EPO over the next 2-3 weeks.

That was one thing I failed to mention. I am a touch concerned seeing the models losing the weakness and troughing in the southern stream in the SW in the longer ranges. Really want to see that feature there so we see some corresponding SE ridging to offset the PNA/EPO ridge. Otherwise we may be looking at suppression in the east.

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we dont cash in somehow before then things are going to be ugly in here. Fingers crossed.

Well we don't need a -NAO to cash in. We may also get a well timed transient ridge in the NA that can help. As for a sustained, legit NA block, not sure that is in the cards over the next couple weeks. 

[Scraff]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

If we dont cash in somehow before then things are going to be ugly in here. Fingers crossed.

Awful lot of “stepping” going on here this morning. It’s like my daughter vortices middle school dance! Just praying we don’t all end up doing the two step shuffle into the panic room for X-Mas. 

[aldie 22]

Manic Monday again 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Manic Monday again 

I wish it were Sunday

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I wish it were Sunday

It will be

[Scraff]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I wish it were Sunday

That’s my fun day....

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

That’s my fun day....

My I dont have to run day?

[nj2va]

Mood swing Monday...

Don’t we need to progressively step up to the pattern advertised by the weeklies/seasonal forecasts?  The unicorn pattern won’t just appear...it’ll be a gradual step until mid month.

[Wonderdog]

We need a mod for this supposed good pattern coming up in a few months.

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Well we don't need a -NAO to cash in. We may also get a well timed transient ridge in the NA that can help. As for a sustained, legit NA block, not sure that is in the cards over the next couple weeks. 

Agreed.  We've had decent periods that were void of any help from the NAO.  Sure helps, but as Chill n others have already stated, get a decent pattern w/ a few variables lined in our favor, and we can find ways to score (fail - depending on how you look at the glass).

As long as MJO continues to go to better phases in the LR, we should be ok.

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Mood swing Monday...

Don’t we need to progressively step up to the pattern advertised by the weeklies/seasonal forecasts?  The unicorn pattern won’t just appear...it’ll be a gradual step until mid month.

There is a crapload of hope on this step up process to mid month....more than I can recall. People still should temper expectations as always. We could theoretically still trip going up the stairs. 

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There is a crapload of hope on this step up process to mid month....more than I can recall. People still should temper expectations as always. We could theoretically still trip going up the stairs. 

Of course we can, its the mid-Atlantic.  Perhaps the “hope” is based on the broad consensus of long range guidance, seasonal forecasts, and respected meteorologist  predictions for the winter.  Could all those prove wrong and we have a BN winter?  Sure.  But that seems unlikely at this point.  

Re: tempering expectations....good luck with that around here.

[nj2va]

Latest Euro MJO forecast and guidance continues progressing towards 7/8.  I’m a noob with MJO though...what does the inner circle represent? If the MJO happens as planned with the green line, does it actually skip phase 7/8 since its in the ‘inner circle’? 

[Wonderdog]

I thought the inner circle was the circle of death. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest Euro MJO forecast and guidance continues progressing towards 7/8.  I’m a noob with MJO though...what does the inner circle represent? If the MJO happens as planned with the green line, does it actually skip phase 7/8 since its in the ‘inner circle’? 

The inner circle means the wave doesn't have enough amplitude to be significant. Circle of death. So no if the mjo goes into the COD it will do us no good. But it also won't hurt so at the least getting it out of the warm side will help. Would be better if it maintains amp into 8

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The inner circle means the wave doesn't have enough amplitude to be significant. Circle of death. So no if the mjo goes into the COD it will do us no good. But it also won't hurt so at the least getting it out of the warm side will help. Would be better if it maintains amp into 8

So generalizing is it safe to assume the one member in the center of phase 8 would mean higher amplification and being 8 is traditionally cold would likely be a cold dry look (suppression ?)? Just trying to get an idea of how this can be dissected more than just cold phase warm phase etc.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The inner circle means the wave doesn't have enough amplitude to be significant. Circle of death. So no if the mjo goes into the COD it will do us no good. But it also won't hurt so at the least getting it out of the warm side will help. Would be better if it maintains amp into 8

Euro (and a lot of the other guidance) has consistently tried to kill this MJO wave too soon.  Been doing it for weeks.  No reason to expect it won't turn the corner and go around the horn with decent amplitude in Phases 6-8.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro (and a lot of the other guidance) has consistently tried to kill this MJO wave too soon.  Been doing it for weeks.  No reason to expect it won't turn the corner and go around the horn with decent amplitude in Phases 6-8.  

Thanks I should have mentioned that...Euro been doing that for months actually. The mjo has been consistently more amplified then long range projections. But worse case just getting it out of the warm phases would help some. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks I should have mentioned that...Euro been doing that for months actually. The mjo has been consistently more amplified then long range projections. But worse case just getting it out of the warm phases would help some. 

Thanks PSU and @WxUSAF. I should mention GEFS is much more amplified than Euro with its MJO forecast and something we’d much rather see. I’m on my phone or else I’d post the current forecast. 

[showmethesnow]

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So generalizing is it safe to assume the one member in the center of phase 8 would mean higher amplification and being 8 is traditionally cold would likely be a cold dry look (suppression ?)? Just trying to get an idea of how this can be dissected more than just cold phase warm phase etc.

Give you an idea what the different phases imply for the east. Some good information on the site I grabbed this from. http://www.weathernationtv.com/news/madden-julian-oscillation-matters-winter/

 

 

[dallen7908]

The 12UT Dec 23 and 00 UT Dec 24 EPS give College Park a 30% chance of >1" of snow during the day 8-11 time period.  However, the chance for >3" of snow during this period has decreased from 18% for the 12UT run to 8% for the most recent run. 

Interestingly, the chance of >1" increases by ~2% (1 ensemble member) per 12-hour period between days 10 and 15 reaching 46% by day 15.  As expected as this range, the models have no clue which shortwave to focus on. 

 

[showmethesnow]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So generalizing is it safe to assume the one member in the center of phase 8 would mean higher amplification and being 8 is traditionally cold would likely be a cold dry look (suppression ?)? Just trying to get an idea of how this can be dissected more than just cold phase warm phase etc.

 

[frd]

 

Wow. crazy amplitude of the MJO , plus a possible west Pac tropical cyclone.

I think the take away here is when the change happens it might be similiar to the dramatic change we had in early November,  when we lost the 70 plus dews and endless summer and went to near freezing and locked in. ( and I couldn't reseed my lawn. ) 

Expect the models to have a hard time.