December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Yes talk dirty to me.

 

How does New Years look?

Sorry for the delay. Lol. Driving back from CT. 

Eps is now picking up on 3 chances centered around the 1st, 5th, and 7th and is really cold at the end of the run. Mean high temps are low to mid 30s from the 5th on. By far the coldest run I've seen and considering it's 13 days out, seeing mean high temps that low is an impressive signal.

I'll post temps and meteogram later but it's not a bad run at all considering the lead time. If we get 3 chances in a weeks time we usually score something. 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Sorry for the delay. Lol. Driving back from CT. 

Eps is now picking up on 3 chances centered around the 1st, 5th, and 7th and is really cold at the end of the run. Mean high temps are low to mid 30s from the 5th on. By far the coldest run I've seen and considering it's 13 days out, seeing mean high temps that low is an impressive signal.

I'll post temps and meteogram later but it's not a bad run at all considering the lead time. If we get 3 chances in a weeks time we usually score something. 

Meteograms. 

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The holy trinity!

-nao -epo +pna. 

 

Well, in this forum, it *is* like a religion!  "In the name of the -NAO, the -EPO, and the +PNA, amen!"

[BristowWx]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, in this forum, it *is* like a religion!  "In the name of the -NAO, the -EPO, and the +PNA, amen!"

It’s like a flood of gasoline.  Just need a lit match.  Let’s see if we get it. 

[Ji]

44 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Well, in this forum, it *is* like a religion!  "In the name of the -NAO, the -EPO, and the +PNA, amen!"

we get -NAO, PNA and -EPO but somehow we never get snow

[yoda]

I see that our NYE threat has gone by the board

[midatlanticweather]

Gfs changed pretty significantly! 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I see that our NYE threat has gone by the board

I'm basically 100% sure we'll get more digital snow for this threat. Maybe tomorrow 

[Disco Lemonade]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Day 9 h5 totally different this run . I mean it is 216 hours out and  East ridge went poof

Interesting to say the least gotta check the ensembles later to see if there was any change. If so, it could be an indication the pattern change is not smoke in mirrors. 

[jaydreb]

Always 10 days away!

[yoda]

Not a huge fan of the end of the 00z GFS in the Pacific... but if we can get a good storm first, okay then

[yoda]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Did you see the -20 850s at hour 200 here 

I deleted my post and had to fix it to what I just posted before you above... yes, I saw.  Looks nice.  The end of the run is meh in the Pacific and our -NAO disappeared

[Bob Chill]

Just now, yoda said:

I deleted my post and had to fix it to what I just posted before you above... yes, I saw.  Looks nice.  The end of the run is meh in the Pacific

I saw 3 threats in a 7 day period. Same message as the eps. I'll worry about h384 after I finish shoveling. 

[pasnownut]

5 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I saw 3 threats in a 7 day period. Same message as the eps. I'll worry about h384 after I finish shoveling. 

It does make one wonder when seeing potential in the next week....why one would worry about a 384 panel.  Its like they've never done this before.  SMH.

 

[midatlanticweather]

6z does some great screw us things. Trends look bad

[showmethesnow]

For those that live and die with each run of a model I thought I would give an example of why it probably isn't worth the effort, especially when we are talking somewhat at range.

Below we have the latest run and the setup for New Years where the EPS is/was showing potential. Deep strong trough in the southwest with higher heights extending up in the east from the SE ridging. Not the greatest of looks as it would suggest any organized system running through the region would most likely cut to our west. 

Now here we have the run from 2 days ago. Notice the southwest trough is advancing east and much weaker. We are seeing much weaker height builds centered farther east up off the coast. The southeast ridging is also shifted farther east as well. This different look with the heights in the east are in direct response to the weaker and farther east SW trough so everything has shifted east and is coming in weaker. This look has some good potential.

 

I mentioned yesterday that people need to focus on the general large scale pattern and down play what I consider smaller scale features and nuances within the larger scale features. This is a perfect example. Now if you look at the setup 2 1/2 days earlier for both runs below you will notice that they are actually quite similar. We have the trough in the SW and the SE ridging in higher heights. But let's focus in the north west. What we are seeing is energy diving down in the northern stream with heights building behind it. 

Below we have the run 2 days ago which sets us up with a pretty good look a few days later. What we see happening is the NS energy drops down, starts to dampen/weaken and progress east through the northern CONUS. 

 

But on the latest run we are seeing that NS energy dropping straight down into the southwest and strengthening the SW trough. Now you may ask yourself why such a different response from both the runs. Well that is because of the ridging we are seeing behind it extending up into western Alaska. On the latest run this feature is much stronger and it builds overtop of that NS energy driving it southward where it sees a weakness in the southwest and exploits it. The previous run the heights don't build overtop of that NS energy and are much weaker thus the NS energy never gets shoved southward enough to actually see that SW weakness.

Now the broad overall pattern on our side of the globe is actually pretty good and very similar on both runs. But both the higher heights in the NW and the shortwave within the northern stream are both having a major impact on how the pattern evolves within the CONUS. Both of these features are what I consider small scale features. Small scale features that the models will most likely not get right at range. Expecting them to have nailed down the NS energy is in particular folly.

 

Now I didn't throw this up to panic people, 'OMG, we aren't getting snow', (well maybe panic some people ) but more so to show that it is more important to look at the overall picture and not to get hung up on the finer details. Details that the models will not iron out until they are much closer in time.

*** Just wanted to say for those who MAY BE panicking about our chances for shortly after the New Year with the latest EPS run.  Nothing is decided at this point in that period of time. The latest run could be right but it is just as likely be wrong. We are dealing with a NS shortwave which are notoriously hard to pin down at range as well as a weakness of the Euro when it comes to the SW and how it handles energy. Also the GEFS mostly supports the EPS run from 2 days ago. Give it a couple of days and we will probably have a better handle on our chances as that NS energy and its evolution will be inside of 5 days.

[aldie 22]

What did you get for Christmas Timmy....coal grandpa I got coal

[showmethesnow]

Weatherbell is almost useless anymore when it comes to trying to compare different runs of the GEFS. At times we are probably talking close to 33% of dropped frames through a run. Now almost impossible to match up equivalent time frames let along get them to match at what I consider key times. Starting to seriously consider dropping them especially when you factor in they have allowed this degradation of the service continue for so long.

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What did you get for Christmas Timmy....coal grandpa I got coal

Sounds traumatic. Reliving childhood memories? 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

For those that live and die with each run of a model I thought I would give an example of why it probably isn't worth the effort, especially when we are talking somewhat at range.

Below we have the latest run and the setup for New Years where the EPS is/was showing potential. Deep strong trough in the southwest with higher heights extending up in the east from the SE ridging. Not the greatest of looks as it would suggest any organized system running through the region would most likely cut to our west. 

Now here we have the run from 2 days ago. Notice the southwest trough is advancing east and much weaker. We are seeing much weaker height builds centered farther east up off the coast. The southeast ridging is also shifted farther east as well. This different look with the heights in the east are in direct response to the weaker and farther east SW trough so everything has shifted east and is coming in weaker. This look has some good potential.

 

I mentioned yesterday that people need to focus on the general large scale pattern and down play what I consider smaller scale features and nuances within the larger scale features. This is a perfect example. Now if you look at the setup 2 1/2 days earlier for both runs below you will notice that they are actually quite similar. We have the trough in the SW and the SE ridging in higher heights. But let's focus in the north west. What we are seeing is energy diving down in the northern stream with heights building behind it. 

Below we have the run 2 days ago which sets us up with a pretty good look a few days later. What we see happening is the NS energy drops down, starts to dampen/weaken and progress east through the northern CONUS. 

 

But on the latest run we are seeing that NS energy dropping straight down into the southwest and strengthening the SW trough. Now you may ask yourself why such a different response from both the runs. Well that is because of the ridging we are seeing behind it extending up into western Alaska. On the latest run this feature is much stronger and it builds overtop of that NS energy driving it southward where it sees a weakness in the southwest and exploits it. The previous run the heights don't build overtop of that NS energy and are much weaker thus the NS energy never gets shoved southward enough to actually see that SW weakness.

Now the broad overall pattern on our side of the globe is actually pretty good and very similar on both runs. But both the higher heights in the NW and the shortwave within the northern stream are both having a major impact on how the pattern evolves within the CONUS. Both of these features are what I consider small scale features. Small scale features that the models will most likely not get right at range. Expecting them to have nailed down the NS energy is in particular folly.

 

Now I didn't throw this up to panic people, 'OMG, we aren't getting snow', (well maybe panic some people ) but more so to show that it is more important to look at the overall picture and not to get hung up on the finer details. Details that the models will not iron out until they are much closer in time.

*** Just wanted to say for those who MAY BE panicking about our chances for shortly after the New Year with the latest EPS run.  Nothing is decided at this point in that period of time. The latest run could be right but it is just as likely be wrong. We are dealing with a NS shortwave which are notoriously hard to pin down at range as well as a weakness of the Euro when it comes to the SW and how it handles energy. Also the GEFS mostly supports the EPS run from 2 days ago. Give it a couple of days and we will probably have a better handle on our chances as that NS energy and its evolution will be inside of 5 days.

That was a long way of saying the EPS took a step back. 

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was a long way of saying the EPS took a step back. 

Was bored. Everybody was still sleeping, including my dogs, so I was just trying to keep myself entertained. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Was bored. Everybody was still sleeping, including my dogs, so I was just trying to keep myself entertained. 

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side lessening the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight. 

[Wonderdog]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side lessening the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight. 

How well do the weeklies usually do? Are there verification scores for them?

[BristowWx]

I don't think the GEFS looks all that great out to 384.  It looks like mostly Pacific air dominated to my untrained eye.  Nothing that says epic unless I am out of my mind.  Always possible.

[Jandurin]

Is it snowing yet?

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side lessening the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight. 

EPS really pumps the EPO ridge towards day 15. Which, of course, is why it loses the NA block. 

It backed off on the snowfall mean days 10-15. Too lazy to dig into the members, but with that h5 look I would guess a rainer followed mostly cold/dry with NS energy passing to our north.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Toward the end the EPS gets the Pacific right but it's pushing back the Atlantic side loosing the nao more each run. It's still early. Interesting to see where the weeklies go tonight. 

Besides the dumping of the NS into the southwest I was pretty much fine with the EPS. Think the downplaying of the NAO in the last few runs is more a function of the EPS now moving towards seeing part of the pv down into northern Canada (Which I myself want to see) which is hampering the ability for the ridging to build. As long as I see the higher heights to the south of Greenland in future runs I think we will be fine as we will probably start seeing the EPS emphasizing a -NAO as we near in time.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

How well do the weeklies usually do? Are there verification scores for them?

I think most of the LR guidance is for entertainment purposes only.  Yesterday everyone was enthused and it even looked like a NYE/NYD threat was really taking shape.  I see none of that today in fact I think the GEFS is barely a serviceable pattern out in the latest hours.  I am sure it will flip back and forth but if the ensembles do that like the ops then what is the point.  Philosophical question.  But if you step forward one day and back another you have not moved anywhere. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

There is alot of optimism for January but soo much seems to be pending on the NAO which hasnt exactly worked in our favor in recent history....at least not locked in, transient at best for whatever scientific reason. Also the SSW dartboard and the PV is another big chance we are taking. Imo it's great to have a juicy stj and to be optimistic and roll the dice with that ingredient, but like alway we still require much more for things to actually play out and for I95 areas to cash in. Curious to see what transpires over the next 6 weeks specifically.

[Jandurin]

Not true. Every day that passes brings us 1 day closer to the epic snowstorm or summer. Whichever comes first.