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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Looks good in the temp department but also looks like it would be on the dry side with dominant northern stream. Much better than a shutout pattern of course but not the kind of longwave pattern that would keep the juicy southern stream action going. 

I'm not very picky so anything other than a shutout is fine. It's not a KU look so Ji won't be thrilled with it. 

I know that KU stands for those two guys who literally wrote the book on big snow in the east, but what is a "KU storm"? Is it a specific type like a Miller A/B or does it just mean a big storm?

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7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I know that KU stands for those two guys who literally wrote the book on big snow in the east, but what is a "KU storm"? Is it a specific type like a Miller A/B or does it just mean a big storm?

The easy short answer is a strong synoptic miller a, b, or hybrid that affects a large portion of the east coast. A KU can be all rain here or even a whiff like Dec 2010. 

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Gefs and eps agree that wx will remain active from NYE through the first week of Jan. A lot of mixed events showing up on the gefs and imho that's probably the most probable way we get snow here so that's where my expectations are.

Practically impossible to accurately guess how things shake out but having multiple chances this time of year provides a lot more leeway for flaws.

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Not looking that great for an impact,  at least form the GFS,  in terms of the strat helping in high lattitude blocking per Earthlight, so + NAM state and little downwelling = muted or uncertain outcomes for high lattitude blocking. 

We continue to see a very muted downwelling signal on the GFS. This would be a less than ideal solution, as the zonal easterlies never truly propagate downward. At the end of the day this is a +NAM state and the effects on higher latitudes blocking potential would be muted and/or indeterminate. 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice to see gfs, FV3, and GGEM all bring out the Southwest shortwave in pieces between the 30th and 2nd or so. That’s our ticket to getting a couple modest events in short order. 

Agreed. Even a west track can work. Might not be a pretty powder event but beggars can't be choosers. 

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10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That's one game I won't be playing again...Again, that doesn't budge by like Wednesday or Thursday...forget it!!

It trended north. But before that it trended south to the point where about 72-84 hours out it looked south of the va/Nc border. I said if it did that then the north trend the final 48 hours wouldn't be enough and it wasn't. If it's sitting just to our south at 72 hours then maybe. 

Also this isn't remotely the same setup. Models won't be able to place the exact location from as far out in a progressive pattern like this. 

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