December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Thanks. I figured temps were marginal even if it showed any precipitation. I’m not sure what his deal is this year...He’s like a little Berk

Good old Tony and his snow train. Like we call Berk “JB2”, we should go ahead and start using “TP” for him. And yes...I’m sure there’s a joke somewhere that includes TP and his shi#*y forecasts. 

[Inthepines]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If you ignore the fact this came off of Berk's site...these are still the raw numbers. (And to update...the BWI rainfall total for Fall as of the end of November was 20.07"

So, wet Falls seem to correlate to below normal winters...not good, not good! Hope we can buck the trend...

I've been on the boards for 20 years and have seen every last kind of stat you could imagine try to justify an above or below average winter.  99 percent of them show no correlation... you will drive yourself nuts going over all of them.  I'd just enjoy the next couple holiday weeks and before you know it, we'll be in business.

 

[jaydreb]

It’s tough to wait, but it’s nice to hear the same prediction from top forecasters like HM, Isotherm, PSU, Chill, DT and others that Jan-Feb should be rocking.  

[poolz1]

I will feel more confident when we see models pick up on the MJO progressing through phase 6 heading toward 7.  Not that we are to that point yet in the forecast period... That will be the sign things are about to get into position and the SOI  will be headed neg.  Models constantly want to kill the MJO and head toward the COD but that forecast is constantly busting.  We are now forecasted to progress through 5...head toward 6....and of course weaken rapidly.  I dont see any reason to think we shouldn't  progress right on through 6 and be to a decent phase 7 by Jan 10th or so.

 

 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

41 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Good old Tony and his snow train. Like we call Berk “JB2”, we should go ahead and start using “TP” for him. And yes...I’m sure there’s a joke somewhere that includes TP and his shi#*y forecasts. 

Lol yeah, it’s just weird because he used to be a solid forecaster...now he has an agenda with this snow train. Idk, I guess it sells 

[BucksCO_PA]

3 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem continues to be who knows where the SSW impacts.    Remember there have been disastrous SSWs before where they impact Alaska or the western US and we go into a full blown torch.  December 1990 and February 1989 I believe we’re both examples of SSWs that did this.  Sometimes having it impact Europe or Siberia isn’t the worst thing for us because the entire polar region setup is disrupted hemisphere wide so we can still benefit here.  Of course January 2012 is an example of one that impacted Europe and did nothing here at all

Feb 1989 was a tremendous month for the immediate MA coastline, snowiest month on record at Norfolk & Wallops Island. Richmond also got in on the action with a top 5 Feb. The storm on the 24th that month was a true blizzard for coastal SNJ with amounts close to 2' in Cape May County.

 

[HighStakes]

19 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Lol yeah, it’s just weird because he used to be a solid forecaster...now he has an agenda with this snow train. Idk, I guess it sells 

He was decent when he was here in the early to mid 90's. He left for a few years and when he came back he changed quite a bit.

Coincidentally he and Berk used to do an hour long radio show together on wcbm about 12 years ago.

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Lol yeah, it’s just weird because he used to be a solid forecaster...now he has an agenda with this snow train. Idk, I guess it sells 

Something tells me that he just loves snow, lol

[PhineasC]

Talking about snow in the Baltimore area is always a good way to get ratings because the vast majority of Baltimorons are obsessed with it, either because they can't get enough, or because they have an irrational fear of it.

[Bob Chill]

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Talking about snow in the Baltimore area is always a good way to get ratings because the vast majority of Baltimorons are obsessed with it, either because they can't get enough, or because they have an irrational fear of it.

You gotta remember how inconsistent snow is around here...it happens just frequently enough for people to be afraid of it...and just inconsistent enough (from a year-to-year standpoint) that it's special for those who love it. It just has a different effect here!

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check out my thread for masked potential I think.

 

@stormtracker Get him, lol

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check out my thread for masked potential I think.

 

Rainstorm?  You know we prefer frozen precip right? 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

Feels like it's been forever since you've been able to report any good news, lol

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something tells me that he just loves snow, lol

Yeah but he used to be unbiased and take more of a wait and see approach. Now he’s Berk junior. Talking about baby snow trains and rain to snow trains lol

[jackb979]

Capital Weather Gang also coming around on the cold/storm January idea: "Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by January"  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9075473f0ad4

[jaydreb]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

Trying to learn a little here - what specifically are you seeing that is good?   That big ball of dark blue (low heights) over the Aleutians?  I know we want blues over us and reds/oranges (higher heights) over Alaska and Greenland? Is blue over Alaska bad but over the Aleutians good?  Sorry for oversimplifying.  

[WxUSAF]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

Haven't seen the 12z, but the end of the 0z was close to something workable, so I suspect tonight's weeklies should continue the trend of showing a solid January.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@stormtracker Get him, lol

You really deleted the thread?? I personally deleted it here because it has a different tune. How many times have we seen a closed 500mb in the gulf of mexico in December? I would like to know. Maybe 7-8 examples. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Thanks. I figured temps were marginal even if it showed any precipitation. I’m not sure what his deal is this year...He’s like a little Berk

https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/berk

[Bob Chill]

34 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Trying to learn a little here - what specifically are you seeing that is good?   That big ball of dark blue (low heights) over the Aleutians?  I know we want blues over us and reds/oranges (higher heights) over Alaska and Greenland? Is blue over Alaska bad but over the Aleutians good?  Sorry for oversimplifying.  

Think of bottoms of troughs and tops of ridges as banked turns for mid and upper level flow. When you have the base of a trough over AK or GoA or even over the west coast of canda it's basically aiming the Pacific jet directly from the ocean and slams it into north America. This floods the continent with pacific maritime air (exactly what we're dealing with right now). 

The aleutian trough on this panel is still too far east of optimal but it's far enough west to imply that downstream ridging can form in the GoA or over western Canada. Since the jet/mid level flow will ride up and over the top of the ridge, it will tap into cold continental air (or arctic air) on NW mid/upper level flow and drive it southward into the conus. 

Retro the aleutian trough another 400 miles west and we have a pretty good pacific. Even as is it implies less of a pac firehouse and more of cold high pressure building in nw Canada. 

[WxUSAF]

Wow...yeah, 12z EPS even better than 0z at the end.  That's not far at all from a potentially snowy pattern.

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, jackb979 said:

Capital Weather Gang also coming around on the cold/storm January idea: "Polar vortex could unleash winter wallop by January"  https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9075473f0ad4

Of course there is no telling where the cold will go.  If it’s not the US then we could be weeks away from feeling the effects.  It’s intriguing for sure.  

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Retro the aleutian trough another 400 miles west and we have a pretty good pacific. Even as is it implies less of a pac firehouse and more of cold high pressure building in nw Canada. 

Hopefully, the weeklies show the continued good progression tonight. Kind of excited to see what happens, despite the weeklies ups and down as of late. Also, looking for the continued development of NAO blocking as well down the road. Maybe that will show itself as well.    

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

Until then, heavy eggnog!

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

At the end of the 12z eps it's the best h5 look I've seen in over a week. Especially in the npac. Not great or optimal but if it's the direction we're going then it will calm some nerves around here. 

E27 on the EPS would make many happy. Lol

but I think we are seeing signs of the very start of the progression to what will be a good pattern by mid January showing up. Geps is likely too fast but showing the evolution also towards day 15.  Now that the cfs caved everything is in agreement we start to transition to a good look by the second week of January. Doesn't mean we can't luck into something before that though. 

[aldie 22]

Just another manic Monday....dimes for everyone 

[jaydreb]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Think of bottoms of troughs and tops of ridges as banked turns for mid and upper level flow. When you have the base of a trough over AK or GoA or even over the west coast of canda it's basically aiming the Pacific jet directly from the ocean and slams it into north America. This floods the continent with pacific maritime air (exactly what we're dealing with right now). 

The aleutian trough on this panel is still too far east of optimal but it's far enough west to imply that downstream ridging can form in the GoA or over western Canada. Since the jet/mid level flow will ride up and over the top of the ridge, it will tap into cold continental air (or arctic air) on NW mid/upper level flow and drive it southward into the conus. 

Retro the aleutian trough another 400 miles west and we have a pretty good pacific. Even as is it implies less of a pac firehouse and more of cold high pressure building in nw Canada. 

 

Thank you Bob.  So basically we want our Pacific air to be routed through northern Canada so that it can get cold before it gets to us? Makes sense.

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Thank you Bob.  So basically we want our Pacific air to be routed through northern Canada so that it can get cold before it gets to us? Makes sense.

Yea, that and we want northwest mid and upper level flow in western Canada. Taps air from the arctic and even Siberia with cross polar setups. Our area generally doesn't stand a chance when the conus is wall to wall pacific air. We need cold/dry continental airmasses that originate in NW or north central Canada. 

[nj2va]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

E27 on the EPS would make many happy. Lol

but I think we are seeing signs of the very start of the progression to what will be a good pattern by mid January showing up. Geps is likely too fast but showing the evolution also towards day 15.  Now that the cfs caved everything is in agreement we start to transition to a good look by the second week of January. Doesn't mean we can't luck into something before that though. 

That's exactly what I'm thinking, too.  Early signs of the progression to a favorable pattern is now appearing...makes sense given we're now in the first days of January on these LR ensembles.