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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

@frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays.

I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@Ji Scale:

SN+ for at least 5 hours
SN for a total of 10 hours
Measurable snow starts at 6" otherwise it is a nuisance event
A snow storm is anything above 12" unless we have wicked winds and SN+ for most of the snow between 6 and 12"
A flip to anything but snow could be considered a fail.

 

By his standards he would be unhappy much of the time even if he lived in New England. He needs to move to somewhere in the mountains up north or out west to get the kind of climate he wants. 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays.

I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. 

More like a sudden flu like thing, as long as I bounce back by Christmas I am OK with that. I hope you are doing better. Not sure frankly what is worse , a 24 bug then over, ( feeling drained and lost weight ) versus a 3 to 4 day thing. On the bright side, losing those pounds Bob, you can have triple servings !

As for the pattern all I see is steady progress. I am at the moment focsing on the movement of the MJO and the SOI and seeing whether we get coupling in Jan. 

Also, the evolution of the blocking at the top. and of course the silly strat element. ie official reversal , split, etc. Very cool to see the daily outcomes and changes as we progress in time.   

Seems our first real target may be Jan 4 th to Jan 9th for something significant.    

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Seems our first real target may be Jan 4 th to Jan 9th for something significant.    

I'm pretty interested in the period a few days before and after NYE. It's messy but I'm seeing enough confluence and semi blocking. A bit of a battleground between warmth exiting and cold pressing. We could end up on the winning side of something. Like a snow to rain or rain to snow type of deal 

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm pretty interested in the period a few days before and after NYE. It's messy but I'm seeing enough confluence and semi blocking. A bit of a battleground between warmth exiting and cold pressing. We could end up on the winning side of something. Like a snow to rain or rain to snow type of deal 

Or a 0z euro type deal :snowman:

EPS is supportive of the op, but seems to be playing the nondispersive game lately.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

@frd stomach bug? I went down for the count yesterday. Worst 24 hours in I dont know how long. Lost a quick 8 pounds so I'm ready to eat everything sight over the holidays.

I just got caught up with the freakouts from the eps. Lol. Everything looks good to me. It's a matter of perspective I guess. We're not flipping from a pac puke pattern right into a KU pattern. That's not how it works here. Ens guidance take us out of the shutout pattern by late next week. I'm good with that. 

Probably Noro. I got that last winter. Literally takes it out of you for a day or so. Feel like crawling in a hole. I had really low energy for a day or 2 after. Contagious as hell too. Almost always works its way through everyone in the house.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Probably Noro. I got that last winter. Literally takes it out of you for a day or so. Feel like crawling in a hole. I had really low energy for a day or 2 after. Contagious as hell too. Almost always works its way through everyone in the house.

Is not the Noro Virus the thing that hits Cruise ships ? ( and you are correct , super super conagious ) I had it once I thought I was on my way out 

 

 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, frd said:

Is not the Noro Virus the thing that hits Cruise ships ? ( and you are correct , super super conagious ) I had it once I thought I was on my way out 

 

 

Not sure how common it is on ships specifically, but because there are a lot of people in relatively tight quarters, if someone comes on board with it I am sure it can end up being very unpleasant for many.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

I am sure most of us here know this, but for those who do not, when you read that temps went up a certain amount based on the SSW event remember, those are anomalies, not absolute temps. Still remarkable though!  

Better explained by Jack below: 

 

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    amazing isn't it! Those values are anomalies though, not absolute temps. So it's 158 degrees above normal, not actually 158 degrees. Still very cold up there of course, but this is a remarkable heat flux event

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Scraff

Scraff

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thats perfect. Lets lock that one in.

Yeah baby!! Always great to be the bullseye 10 days out  

Seriously, it’s good to see the signals are coming into better focus. I think we rock in January big time.  Might even have to make a toilet paper and bourbon run in the coming days. :lol:

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, frd said:

Things begin to change in our favor at this point. 

Maybe a better CAD signature will show up , and this might trend even colder in the next  few days.  

IMHO, Doesn’t need colder or it will be pressed south.  534 thickness is just fine and that high is good as depicted unless it’s a sub 980 bomb that plows into an arctic high.  Good as depicted.  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Yeah baby!! Always great to be the bullseye 10 days out  

Seriously, it’s good to see the signals are coming into better focus. I think we rock in January big time.  Might even have to make a toilet paper and bourbon run in the coming days. :lol:

Realistically that depiction seems pretty low probability looking upstairs. That window also might a tad early- although not impossible. The way things appear to be evolving right now, somewhere around Jan 5-6 might be more reasonable.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

To be fair there was some (SOME) truth to what he said. If you get a beast epo ridge (a full latitude ridge) then it would be almost impossible to have a -nao as the natural buckling of the jet in response would favor a trough there. But nothing has shown a monster epo full latitude ridge and the run we were referencing had no epo ridge at all and so his comments made no sense in context. Maybe he had a point that I just wasn't getting. 

That was pretty much what I meant, the EPO ridge that goes to nearly the North Pole.  You’re correct that as of now nothing shows that but I do believe either last winter or the previous winter around this time the long range ensembles showed a solid PNA ridge over the western CONUS with a -NAO.  Sure enough that eventually transitioned over the ensuing week to a neutral to negative PNA and a massive EPO type ridge off the coast which didn’t do us much good.  It wasn’t that first time since 2012 or 13 we had seen that happen either.  The tendency since the 2010-11 winter has been more for those EPO off the west coast ridges than it has been the positive PNA Montana ridge.  The PDO has likely been the reason why.  

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Sure enough that eventually transitioned over the ensuing week to a neutral to negative PNA and a massive EPO type ridge off the coast which didn’t do us much good.  It wasn’t that first time since 2012 or 13 we had seen that happen either.  The tendency since the 2010-11 winter has been more for those EPO off the west coast ridges than it has been the positive PNA Montana ridge.  The PDO has likely been the reason why.  

So a week from now...you're saying we could see a different look? (and the PDO...is that the same as previous years?)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, LortonWx said:

How are we getting snow with the low so far south? (Newbie Question)

The shortwave responsible for the snow here is embedded in the northern stream.

gfs_z500_vort_us_36.png

The low to our south is strung out southern energy. Very complicated "busy" flow in both streams on tap. Not a chance in hell the gfs has it right yet but the general idea of active flow and enough cold pressing down could work many different ways. 

 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted

Not sure what the real stats are now for verification on the main models, as I feel at this time they are having a hard time, but I believe the Euro has been doing best. 

I wonder if this means its MJO forecast is correct , as it moves it along.   

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jaydreb

jaydreb

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, frd said:

Not sure what the real stats are now for verification on the main models, as I feel at this time they are having a hard time, but I believe the Euro has been doing best.  

They are 100% correct when they lock into a rainstorm at 10 days. They are 0% if they show snow.   

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Or a 0z euro type deal :snowman:

EPS is supportive of the op, but seems to be playing the nondispersive game lately.

I just looked at the 0z euro. Heh, yea...that kind of storm. Models all have a similar theme coming up. Surely not a long lead lock it up kind of deal but it's a pretty common type of setup for us to get some sort of snow event. 

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