December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[dallen7908]

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Jan 05 2019-Fri Jan 18 2019 
 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

 

"While we do not issue explicit forecasts of winter weather potential at this lead, it would seem prudent to note that the forecast circulation pattern would favor an enhanced chance of winter storm events east of the Appalachians, including the major population centers of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, especially later in the period." 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Thin line between gambling and weather...most times you lose but you remember the big wins and it keeps you coming back

Last time I went to AC I won enough at the tables to cover the weekend, food and all, and considered that a big win. That was 4 years ago. Haven't played since.  No time anymore.  On here is the extent of my gambling now.  

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Last time I went to AC I won enough at the tables to cover the weekend, food and all, and considered that a big win. That was 4 years ago. Haven't played since.  No time anymore.  On here is the extent of my gambling now.  

Off topic but a MA forum trip to AC would be a blast.  After tracking season ends of course 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Cue the ‘this feels like the winter where the great pattern never gets here and we don’t see another 1” of snow until 2020.’ 

Nah I think the end result of a high latitude blocking pattern is pretty inevitable. Most years (58,64,66,69,78,80,87,2005,2010) it was primarily on the nao side but did extend into the epo domain. Some years (2003,2015) it was mostly on the epo side. Only one even somewhat similar year (1995) was a train wreck that never established any high latitude blocking of significance.  

The issue is just when...and unfortunately the guidance is likely rushing it. Hope I'm wrong. But in years where the second half of December was mild and it flipped the flip was usually around January 20th or later.   Look at 58, 66, 69, 78, 87 and 05.  The pattern got snowy after January 20th.  Doesn't mean there wasn't a step process to get there and we are seeing the beginnings of that process show up now.  And no two years are exactly alike so there can always be a threat that works out. But the odds have always favored the last 1/3 of January for when it gets good. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Off topic but a MA forum trip to AC would be a blast.  After tracking season ends of course 

I'm in!

[LP08]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm in!

It only snows at the beach so it could be a chase too!

[nj2va]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nah I think the end result of a high latitude blocking pattern is pretty inevitable. Most years (58,64,66,69,78,80,87,2005,2010) it was primarily on the nao side but did extend into the epo domain. Some years (2003,2015) it was mostly on the epo side. Only one even somewhat similar year (1995) was a train wreck that never established any high latitude blocking of significance.  

The issue is just when...and unfortunately the guidance is likely rushing it. Hope I'm wrong. But in years where the second half of December was mild and it flipped the flip was usually around January 20th or later.   Look at 58, 66, 69, 78, 87 and 05.  The pattern got snowy after January 20th.  Doesn't mean there wasn't a step process to get there and we are seeing the beginnings of that process show up now.  And no two years are exactly alike so there can always be a threat that works out. But the odds have always favored the last 1/3 of January for when it gets good. 

Oh, I’m totally with you.  I am extremely confident in the blocking showing up in January...we’re seeing the step up process now and I feel good that we see a warning event in January.

[poolz1]

Today is the first time the Euro forecasts the MJO to move into a significant phase 6.  There is an absence of HLB in phase 6 in Jan....Phase 7 on the other hand is pretty robust. I know there are other drivers but the MJO has pretty much ruled so far.....  Maybe the Euro is picking upon this?  This would line up well with PSU's 1/15 call.  If the strat gives us help...We should start seeing results around the same time.

[showmethesnow]

28 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Off topic but a MA forum trip to AC would be a blast.  After tracking season ends of course 

I might be game as well. Sounds like fun.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Today is the first time the Euro forecasts the MJO to move into a significant phase 6.  There is an absence of HLB in phase 6 in Jan....Phase 7 on the other hand is pretty robust. I know there are other drivers but the MJO has pretty much ruled so far.....  Maybe the Euro is picking upon this?  This would line up well with PSU's 1/15 call.  If the strat gives us help...We should start seeing results around the same time.

My estimated timing of the mjo progression was part of my mid January flip call. So was analogs with similar pattern evolutions. So I've suspected the guidance might be rushing things but everyone is so impatient to get to the promised land I was and am hoping I was wrong and the flip comes sooner. The strong phase 6 makes sense with the change in the EPS though. And again I don't see that as a sign the whole progression is off.  The cfs and an earlier run of the weeklies did that in early January and then still gets to the same result by January 20. 

[Woodbridge02]

The way this winter is progressing reminds me of 2014-2015. We had a cold November with a moderate snow events in the suburbs, followed by a warmup in December, especially late December. I remember 60s around this time in 2014. I would be fine with a repeat, we don't need a historic winter especially since our last two have been so bad. 

[psuhoffman]

50 minutes ago, LortonWx said:

The way this winter is progressing reminds me of 2014-2015. We had a cold November with a moderate snow events in the suburbs, followed by a warmup in December, especially late December. I remember 60s around this time in 2014. I would be fine with a repeat, we don't need a historic winter especially since our last two have been so bad. 

If there had been some nao help in 2015 it would have been historic. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

My estimated timing of the mjo progression was part of my mid January flip call. So was analogs with similar pattern evolutions. So I've suspected the guidance might be rushing things but everyone is so impatient to get to the promised land I was and am hoping I was wrong and the flip comes sooner. The strong phase 6 makes sense with the change in the EPS though. And again I don't see that as a sign the whole progression is off.  The cfs and an earlier run of the weeklies did that in early January and then still gets to the same result by January 20. 

Mid-January has been a historical benchmark for January snow, hasn't it? (When was the last time we had a SECS or larger happen between the 1st and the 15th?)

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mid-January has been a historical benchmark for January snow, hasn't it? (When was the last time we had a SECS or larger happen between the 1st and the 15th?)

1996

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1996

I was just about to edit my post to say that, lol So that was the only time on record I can think of...

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

1996

Let's just do that one again. And bring back Paul Kocin to discuss it on TWC.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

1996

Jan 2, 2014

Didn't most of the region get 3-6" from that storm? It was one of the better Miller Bs that we've had..

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Jan 2, 2014

Didn't most of the region get 3-6" from that storm? It was one of the better Miller Bs that we've had..

Yes but I thought he was talking about really big storms.  Oddly early January has been pretty void of snow though. Seems like we have had a window early to mid December over the years before a dead zone December 20 to January 20. Then after January 20th our snow climo really ramps up 

[Fozz]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but I thought he was talking about really big storms.  Oddly early January has been pretty void of snow though. Seems like we have had a window early to mid December over the years before a dead zone December 20 to January 20. Then after January 20th our snow climo really ramps up 

Yeah I've noticed that too, and I don't really know why that happens. It's been an incredibly consistent pattern since at least January 2000.

Jan 2014 was one of only a handful of exceptions, but for the most part it's just nickel and dime if we get anything.

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but I thought he was talking about really big storms.  Oddly early January has been pretty void of snow though. Seems like we have had a window early to mid December over the years before a dead zone December 20 to January 20. Then after January 20th our snow climo really ramps up 

 

6 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Yeah I've noticed that too, and I don't really know why that happens. It's been an incredibly consistent pattern since at least January 2000.

Jan 2014 was one of only a handful of exceptions, but for the most part it's just nickel and dime if we get anything.

Yes, I was referring to more significant snows. And @Fozzyeah, it's really strange (another reason why 1996 was an such an anomaly...mercy, the atmosphere was on steroids, and the snow basically told La Niña to screw it, lol)

[CaryWx]

I know this is not my sub forum but you guys are in the cross hairs from the 5th thru the 18th per NOAA today.  They uncharacteristically literally spelled it out in their weeklies.  Why the gloom?

[yoda]

00z GFS shows some intrigue after New Years... Jan 2 with frozen to rain and then the oh so hilarious Jan 4 to 5 with an apparent huge backside snow shield when the SLP is up in ME at hr 336 lol... also some nice arctic cold on the last few days of teh 00z GFS in lala land

00z FV3 has a weak impulse looking thing for NYE which drops around an inch in the area... than quick frozen to rain Jan 2 with nothing much after

00z GGEM has nothing much besides the Dec 28 SLP that heads into the Great Lakes that makes us enjoy rain

[yoda]

00z GEFS snowfall mean through Day 10 is less than an inch for most of LWX CWA besides the usual upslope folks... 2.5" around DCA/along I95 corridor at Day 16

There are some weak to moderate hits smattered about in the GEFS between Days 8-14... so a weak signal is there for around NYE or slightly after

[Ji]

Euro has a monster snow day 9 -10. Ensemble at 384 looks better with nao back

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro has a monster snow day 9 -10. Ensemble at 384 looks better with nao back

[Ralph Wiggum]

I'll just leave this here

[Wonderdog]

I know it's a combination of things but is the trough over Alaska the number one key to our good winter storm patterns? In other words, are we s.o.l. without it?

[showmethesnow]

Wife is dragging me out early this morning to finish up some Christmas shopping so only have time for some quick comments. After some of the panic with yesterday's 12Z runs, besides some fine tuning of some features here and there, the overnight runs (GEFS, EPS) look fine. Actually better then fine. If the models are somewhat correct on the large scale pattern it looks to be a potentially exciting and active period setting up for just after the new year which looks to extend into the foreseeable future. Now I am sure that some will find issue with some things here and there, they always do. But if the models are correct up top with the (EPO/PNA, NAO) it would take some extremely bad luck not to score something in the coming days/weeks.

Brought up the day 10-16 day period as showing a good deal of promise with the mid-latitude pattern that was setting up. It hasn't gone anywhere and looks just as promising today if not more so. Of special interest, a distinct window of opportunity where I think the models are starting to key on, is the roughly day 9-11 period of time. Need to get that period of time in closer to get the finer details but at this point the models suggest an over running and/or low pulling up from the south through our general region. Now I used the day 10-16 as of interest yesterday strictly because that is as far as the models go. If the models are correct that period of interest extends beyond day 16 potentially quite a bit. So don't think that at day 16 everything comes to a screeching halt.

Now short of the models rushing things, which they do on occasion, it may be getting time to buckle up because we may be in for the ride of our lives shortly.

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I know it's a combination of things but is the trough over Alaska the number one key to our good winter storm patterns? In other words, are we s.o.l. without it?

We don't want a trough over Alaska. We want that trough to the west over the Aleutians with ridging up through Alaska.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Wife is dragging me out early this morning to finish up some Christmas shopping so only have time for some quick comments. After some of the panic with yesterday's 12Z runs, besides some fine tuning of some features here and there, the overnight runs (GEFS, EPS) look fine. Actually better then fine. If the models are somewhat correct on the large scale pattern it looks to be a potentially exciting and active period setting up for just after the new year which looks to extend into the foreseeable future. Now I am sure that some will find issue with some things here and there, they always do. But if the models are correct up top with the (EPO/PNA, NAO) it would take some extremely bad luck not to score something in the coming days/weeks.

Brought up the day 10-16 day period as showing a good deal of promise with the mid-latitude pattern that was setting up. It hasn't gone anywhere and looks just as promising today if not more so. Of special interest, a distinct window of opportunity where I think the models are starting to key on, is the roughly day 9-11 period of time. Need to get that period of time in closer to get the finer details but at this point the models suggest an over running and/or low pulling up from the south through our general region. Now I used the day 10-16 as of interest yesterday strictly because that is as far as the models go. If the models are correct that period of interest extends beyond day 16 potentially quite a bit. So don't think that at day 16 everything comes to a screeching halt.

Now short of the models rushing things, which they do on occasion, it may be getting time to buckle up because we may be in for the ride of our lives shortly.

Preach it brother.  

BTW, if your getting last minute gifts, I'm a size 10 boot.  Seeing the EPS snow mean is quite a nice way to start the day.