showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It will be on our side....at least a piece of it by the 3rd week of January if not before then. Trust the weeklies. This reload of the pattern thru that time has been consistently modeled. Until it fails completely as lead times shrink I have no reason to doubt where we are headed. Becoming more optimistic daily. And like both u and psu noted, we can still cash in during this time of climo without the PV parked to our North as long as we have the PAC help. We are entering that time of climo where we dont necessarily require absolute perfection. I tend to agree with you. GEFS hasn't been handling the pv too well lately on its runs so i am not overly concerned at this time. Just more so pointing out the fact that the GEFS has been trending this way lately. But again, we can deal with it being on the other side as long as we continue to see the PNA/EPO ridge to shut off the PAC air and pump the colder arctic air down underneath the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 It's about to get real....Models continue to correct to a more amplified MJO heading toward the promise land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, poolz1 said: It's about to get real....Models continue to correct to a more amplified MJO heading toward the promise land. That's good to see. It makes sense that the tellies are catching on to the new regime, and think that by this time next week, there might be a lot of weather porn being shared on the board. Just hoping the STJ stays active and close by once we get into the New Year. That's been in the back of my mind for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That's good to see. It makes sense that the tellies are catching on to the new regime, and think that by this time next week, there might be a lot of weather porn being shared on the board. Just hoping the STJ stays active and close by once we get into the New Year. That's been in the back of my mind for the last few days. In my mind as well....I am banking on a good NA to give us shots regardless. Even with periods of suppression a good block in GL can give us shots when things relax....if that block is pretty well sustained we should have several bouts of suppressed/relax. Hoping at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: That's good to see. It makes sense that the tellies are catching on to the new regime, and think that by this time next week, there might be a lot of weather porn being shared on the board. Just hoping the STJ stays active and close by once we get into the New Year. That's been in the back of my mind for the last few days. That one of those things that can be a bit of a wildcard, or? (now does the Niño usually drive that?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Since @frd is really slacking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That one of those things that can be a bit of a wildcard, or? (now does the Niño usually drive that?) yes and no. Base state we are in usually includes an active STJ, but as I know your learning, there's other influences, and too much blocking in the NA can lead to suppression in the east. West based nao gives room for STJ to stay close enough for storm track to be favorable. With split flow out west PJ and STJ split in west and converging in midwest can lead to overrunning events (my favorites), as they are a steady stream of moisture coming out of the SW and being ejected east to meet up w/ the PJ and steady long duration (typically light/mod) snow events can occur. That's another way we can win. Hope that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS at 12z has little better dig and stronger SW Christmas Eve...Should produce some mood flakes at least EDIT: Surface is a furnace so enjoy your sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, LP08 said: GFS at 12z has little better dig and stronger SW Christmas Eve...Should produce some mood flakes at least EDIT: Surface is a furnace so enjoy your sprinkles. That can always trend colder in the next few days...ya never know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Since @frd is really slacking.. Boooo...... I have to get more coffee. Will be posting soon. I do like the -NAO look later next week. May end up being even more so negative. The goofy GFS I think is struggling with this, I would speculate a further South track over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: It's about to get real....Models continue to correct to a more amplified MJO heading toward the promise land. Could you (or someone else) help explain how to read that? If I’m reading it correctly, we’re currently in Phase 5 (red line correlates to the date) and the yellow lines are the ensemble members view of where we’re heading? Grey is the spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12z CMC has the NYE storm... but its rain down here. Track is a bit NW of where we would like it... but its there. And there is a HP in concert moving across Quebec... but its too far north and the 850s/2mT are shot. But the storm is there though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC has the NYE storm... but its rain down here. Track is a bit NW of where we would like it... but its there. And there is a HP in concert moving across Quebec... so maybe it would be frozen. CMC is really close. But both it and 12z gfs do a perfect job of having all the precip avoid what cold air we get. Gfs then brings the Arctic hammer after New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC has the NYE storm... but its rain down here. Track is a bit NW of where we would like it... but its there. And there is a HP in concert moving across Quebec... so maybe it would be frozen. GFS has it too but 850s are up in niagara falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 as we enjoy a Friday in the 60s, it looks like a repeat next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 12z GFS starting the new year has a pretty potent cold shot entering the US into the Plains... -20s 2mT in MN at 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, high risk said: as we enjoy a Friday in the 60s, it looks like a repeat next Friday. DCA pushing 70 at 18z FRI (Dec 28) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: DCA pushing 70 at 18z FRI (Dec 28) lol That's an impressive January thaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Pretty nice storm Jan 2-3 on 12z GFS... then another quick wave on the 4th but that one is too far south and weak... then maybe a lil something at the very end of the run? Anyway, 12z GFS looks nice starting just after New Year's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CMC is really close. But both it and 12z gfs do a perfect job of having all the precip avoid what cold air we get. Gfs then brings the Arctic hammer after New Years. Warm/wet - cold/dry. Status quo for winters here. With some luck, maybe we transition to warm/dry post Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 I’ve seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Atmospheric memory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I’ve seen this before. Even that would be further north than the last one was, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 We've had 3 impressive storms in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 How does the individual members look on the GEFS for the NYE threat? The mean looks ok on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: How does the individual members look on the GEFS for the NYE threat? The mean looks ok on TT. It's alright. About a 2" jump on the mean for DCA, similar for points N & W. Definitely favors rain though. GEFS likes the post-NYE storm better, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Both the GFS and GEFS mean split the strat vortex around the 30th/31st. GEFS continues with a favorable look in January for cold and snow. Stout -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's alright. About a 2" jump on the mean for DCA, similar for points N & W. Definitely favors rain though. 2” increase from where it was before? That’s a pretty big signal at 10 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: 2” increase from where it was before? That’s a pretty big signal at 10 day leads. yeah, it goes from a dusting to 2" or so in D.C. 6 members seem to jump on it, which isn't anything to scoff at. A couple of them are definitely the snow output on WxBell being funky though, counting sleet/frza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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