December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS at the very end is showing what will be step 1 in a progression towards what we want. Get the trough west to the Aleutians. Once that happens the pna and epo will become more favorable. The ridging builds across to the nao side eventually and that's when things can really go nuts. It might be rushing it a bit. I'm sticking with my call we see signs by early Jan and the pattern gets good after Jan 15. 

For @Maestrobjwa sake hopefully it won't be like 1969 when we had an awesome h5 look much of the second half of winter but had close miss after close miss and ended up with only mediocre results. 1968 had a snow mid November too and it was a modoki nino so uh oh! 

Look if we miss, we miss...to me, it just makes us more due for next year. Only twice in BWI history have we gone more than three consecutive winters below average. You gonna troll me the rest of the year now?

[Maestrobjwa]

Now, speaking of trends...see, comparisons to years where it didn't snow much always bother me. 2003-04 was pretty much a dud (although 9.7 inches of the total fell in that Dec and at BWI--the rest fell in Jan). Ya know what else bothers me?

The fact that the other 4 wettest years all preceded winters of below normal snowfall.

That being said...correlation doesn't equal causation...

[frd]

Priceless info from @donsutherland1

Thanks Don ! 

Oh, and this is to show you how very unusual things are right now. Models having a hard time.

Fascinating about the + SOI and the high amplitude MJO.

<<<

Today marked the 6th consecutive day that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was +10.00 or above. That sets a new record for most consecutive days during which a winter month (December, January, February) had an ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly of +0.5°C or above.  The prior meteorological winter record was 5 consecutive days, which was set in February 2015. The prior December record was 4 consecutive days, which was set in December 2015.

The MJO has also been in Phase 4 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above for 4 consecutive days. No December during which the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above had more than 2 consecutive such days. 3 prior Decembers had 2 consecutive days meeting such criteria: December 2002, December 2006, and December 2015. December 2006 was the only December case that saw such an MJO coincide with a positive SOI.

In short, the current global synoptic setup is a highly anomalous event.

If some of the ensembles are right, this setup should breakdown over the next 7-10 days. The SOI could go negative toward the latter part of that timeframe. The MJO will likely move into Phase 5 at a fairly high amplitude toward the latter part of that timeframe. While some previuos guidance had suggested a low amplitude outcome, a low amplitude appears very unlikely to verify over the next 10 days and probably longer.

The last time the MJO had an amplitude below 1.000 was October 30. To date, the MJO has had an amplitude of 1.000 or above for 46 consecutive days. During winter 2007-08, the MJO had a high amplitude for 69 consecutive days. The meteorological winter record is 78 consecutive days set during the December 13-Feburary 28, 2018 period (with the MJO finally moving into low amplitude on March 13, 2018 after 90 consecutive days at high amplitude).

The ongoing rare MJO-SOI events will lead to a lot of uncertainty for perhaps the next several weeks. Nevertheless, even as the last week of December now looks below average in terms of prospects for accumulating snow in the northern Middle Atlantic region (some but not a high possibility exists), the base case going forward appears to be the following:

1. The ocean and atmosphere will likely couple (probably in January) leading to the atmosphere's becoming consistent with the ongoing El Niño.
2. The MJO will remain at high amplitude through the remainder of December as it progresses into Phase 5 and then Phase 6. It will likely move into the colder Phases in January.
3. The warm SSTAs in the Gulf of Alaska will lead to the decay and breakdown of the ongoing EPO+, but that will probably happen during the first half of January, consistent with a similar evolution of events in winter 2002-03.
4. The PDO has gone positive in December after a somewhat negative November (based on daily data). Some caution is advised, as daily data was used. The JSAO.Washington.edu PDO page has not been updated recently (its last monthly value was +0.09 for September). A positive PDO has typically been present during snowy El Niño winters.

Overall, it still appears likely that winter 2018-19 will wind up snowier than normal in the Great Lakes region, Middle Atlantic region, and southern New England. However, the risk of significant snowfall will likely remain below average until January. Northern New England could provide an exception.

As for December in New York City, the statistical probability of December's being warmer than normal has increased dramatically in recent days. The implied probability is now 74% based on sensitivity analysis. The implied monthly mean temperature is 38.1°-39.4° (normal: 37.5°)

>>>

 

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, speaking of trends...see, comparisons to years where it didn't snow much always bother me. 2003-04 was pretty much a dud (although 9.7 inches of the total fell in that Dec and at BWI--the rest fell in Jan). Ya know what else bothers me?

The fact that the other 4 wettest years all preceded winters of below normal snowfall.

That being said...correlation doesn't equal causation...

The problem continues to be who knows where the SSW impacts.    Remember there have been disastrous SSWs before where they impact Alaska or the western US and we go into a full blown torch.  December 1990 and February 1989 I believe we’re both examples of SSWs that did this.  Sometimes having it impact Europe or Siberia isn’t the worst thing for us because the entire polar region setup is disrupted hemisphere wide so we can still benefit here.  Of course January 2012 is an example of one that impacted Europe and did nothing here at all

[midatlanticweather]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem continues to be who knows where the SSW impacts.    Remember there have been disastrous SSWs before where they impact Alaska or the western US and we go into a full blown torch.  December 1990 and February 1989 I believe we’re both examples of SSWs that did this.  Sometimes having it impact Europe or Siberia isn’t the worst thing for us because the entire polar region setup is disrupted hemisphere wide so we can still benefit here.  Of course January 2012 is an example of one that impacted Europe and did nothing here at all

Exactly right! When we rely on SSW we are in trouble because we do not have a clue who reaps the benefits. I remember both the above! Great points! Let's hope it is us. I would rather hope for typical patterns that help us and hope the SSW does not screw them up! 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

Exactly right! When we rely on SSW we are in trouble because we do not have a clue who reaps the benefits. I remember both the above! Great points! Let's hope it is us. I would rather hope for typical patterns that help us and hope the SSW does not screw them up! 

 

Odds are we get both.  It’s unlikely this coming pattern continues beyond 1/10-1/15 or that SOI continues behaving as if we are in a La Niña 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Exactly right! When we rely on SSW we are in trouble because we do not have a clue who reaps the benefits. I remember both the above! Great points! Let's hope it is us. I would rather hope for typical patterns that help us and hope the SSW does not screw them up! 

 

What does SSW stand for? (pardon my ignroance)

This sounds like something that's a total slot machine of results!

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What does SSW stand for? (pardon my ignroance)

Sudden Stratospheric Warming https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming 

This may be better

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/wind/sudden-stratospheric-warming

 

[frd]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem continues to be who knows where the SSW impacts.    Remember there have been disastrous SSWs before where they impact Alaska or the western US and we go into a full blown torch.  December 1990 and February 1989 I believe we’re both examples of SSWs that did this.  Sometimes having it impact Europe or Siberia isn’t the worst thing for us because the entire polar region setup is disrupted hemisphere wide so we can still benefit here.  Of course January 2012 is an example of one that impacted Europe and did nothing here at all

Exactly, the talks of SWWE is exciting and very interesting to see how it plays out, but I admit, like I did a month ago, you don't really know where the impacts are going to be directed until almost real time. 

Isotherm brought up a couple examples to me where we did get the effects, and it was very impressive. This involved the displacement over to Eurasia, yet due to the nature of the event, it contributed to a very cold month over the NE with long lasting snow cover. 

But, I agree, at times I almost think events like is like playing with fire. 

We could miss out, or it could enhance the pattern possibly. A lot to play out still. 

Will it be a split, a major warming, minor, displacement, etc.  

All good points you mentioned, thanks.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anyone writing off the winter at this juncture (hi EJ) is just being silly. The MJO has temporarily screwed things up a bit, but even without that there were mixed signals for Dec. The Nino was a late developer, and NA blocking is favored during the back half of winter during a Nino regardless. I would be surprised if we don't have a generally favorable pattern for mid Jan through early March.

Absolutely, we almost never have a winter with a favorable pattern throughout.  IMO I'd rather get this unfavorable trash out of the way now, since this isn't our best snow climo anyway. 

[frd]

Scroll down to Paul Roundy

 

 

 

 

 

[Ji]

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

[aldie 22]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

Sometimes we have to wait 12 months 

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

No, you wanna know what's really horrendous? The fact that even after we wait a month, the possibility of a failed nino (or I should say, failure IN a nino) and not hitting climo is still on the table. A failed nino following back-to-back ninas would just be...mercy. Hope it doesn't happen like that...

[showmethesnow]

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

The modeled pattern is bad there is no getting around that. Didn't feel like it was worth posting about something that we all can see. But that's alright, it just gives me time to rest up for the blockbuster non-stop action from mid-January through March. 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Sometimes we have to wait 12 months 

Try 24+ months of sub climo and being in danger of making it 36 if things don't work out this time.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

 

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No, you wanna know what's really horrendous? The fact that even after we wait a month, the possibility of a failed nino (or I should say, failure IN a nino) and not hitting climo is still on the table. A failed nino following back-to-back ninas would just be...mercy. Hope it doesn't happen like that...

Wow...has the medium range thread suddenly morphed into overflow from the Panic Room lately?  Reaper must be running out of suites over there! 

(All meant in humor here, couldn't resist!)

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

 

Wow...has the medium range thread suddenly morphed into overflow from the Panic Room lately?  Reaper must be running out of suites over there! 

(All meant in humor here, couldn't resist!)

I ain't giving into the reaper...even if things go sideways, I ain't goin' there!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Look if we miss, we miss...to me, it just makes us more due for next year. Only twice in BWI history have we gone more than three consecutive winters below average. You gonna troll me the rest of the year now?

No just trying to change the subject from 1980 to 1969 because 1980 was a hot mess up here...even worse WRT climo then DC and Baltimore.  It was one of the worst fails for this area ever actually with regards to it being a bottom 1/3 snowfall winter here yet was above average in DC and way above average south of DC.  Everything was suppressed that year.  I don't mind talking about 1969 since that was actually an above average snowfall year up here.  No blockbuster storms but a lot of the close misses in DC and Baltimore clipped up here with 5 or 6" of snow.  I wouldn't actually worry about 69 though.  There were actually a few really nice track miller a storms that winter...but a couple just didn't come together perfectly and so they were mediocre snowfall events (3.3" on 2/8, 2,8" on 2/20, 5.4" on 3/2 and 2.4" on 3/7).  I couple of them mixed in the cities and that was the problem, and a couple just didn't come together right for us.  Two of them were decent here but became absolute monster blizzards to our northeast with 2-3 feet in New England but the storms didn't really bomb in time to crush our area.  There wasn't anything "wrong" with the pattern, we just kind of got the minimum for the potential.  It happens...if you look at all the modoki years...1995 sticks out as the "what went wrong this doesnt fit" year...and some have opined that the volcanic eruption may have had something to do with it... but just taking all the rest they had such similar patterns and all fit within a range with "ok" being the bottom and epic being the top of that range.  Luck probably had more to do with what years fell into what places in that range than anything else.  

I know some people don't like to accept chaos.  But a couple of those storms in 69 were a degree or two away from being a big hit, or a slightly more amplified SW away.  Look at 2005, that storm in January was close to being a monster.  But the stj wave missed the boat and got squashed and so the entire storm ended up northern stream and so it was a low end event here and huge to our northeast.  There were two storms in late February that were close to big, perfect track miller a systems but they just didnt phase and amplify enough to really be big.  There was a possible big storm in early February also but it ended up getting suppressed and we had a cold dry weekend.  There were opportunities for that to end up a great year and it just didnt work out.  That happens.  But you can't worry about it because there is nothing you can do about it.  There are also examples of years that probably should have been awful and we lucked our way to a pretty good year.  2000 was like that.  We really only had 3 threats all year during the only favorable 10 day window in January but for places just west of the cities all 3 hit and so it is remembered as a good year even though 90% of that winter was a totally crap pattern.  2006 was like that also.  That storm in February came during the middle of an awful pattern and we got lucky, remove that and it was a total crap year.  To an extent 2014 also...the epo was good enough that it should have been cold and somewhat snowy, but we did way better then you should expect from a year with a positive AO/NAO.  That probably should have been an about average snowfall year with a lot of ice and we just hit the jackpot everytime with a perfect track.  It goes both ways.  But having a pattern that gives us multiple chances is all you can ask for...it's like starting the poker game with a pair of aces... doesn't guarantee you win the hand but I will take my chances everytime!

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

The modeled pattern is bad there is no getting around that. Didn't feel like it was worth posting about something that we all can see. But that's alright, it just gives me time to rest up for the blockbuster non-stop action from mid-January through March. 

 

You'll have a better chance of seeing snow in Vegas. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, speaking of trends...see, comparisons to years where it didn't snow much always bother me. 2003-04 was pretty much a dud (although 9.7 inches of the total fell in that Dec and at BWI--the rest fell in Jan). Ya know what else bothers me?

The fact that the other 4 wettest years all preceded winters of below normal snowfall.

That being said...correlation doesn't equal causation...

 

 

Keep in mind that year wasn't a nino so the results of a similar strat warm wouldn't necessarily be the same.  Frankly the results of every strat warm is different and unpredictable.  Last years ended up helping us out in March...several threats and one hit.  Others have done nothing for us at all and mainly impacted Asia or Europe.  Also...that year we had a very cold and generally favorable pattern for a couple weeks the end of January.  We got one good storm and a couple close misses.  It was mostly northern stream though so getting a big one was unlikely.  But this area recorded 33 days of snowcover from January 18th to February 19th because it was so cold.  Not crazy totals but that is an impressive stretch of snowcover even for up here.  

[Fozz]

2003-04 was a pretty good winter, but very front-loaded. I don't like how we were completely shut out after January ended.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Does the euro have any light precipitation still on Christmas Eve? Just curious if Tony Pann can finally put to bed the white Christmas chances 

[LP08]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Does the euro have any light precipitation still on Christmas Eve? Just curious if Tony Pann can finally put to bed the white Christmas chances 

Looks very light.  Freezing line is through central PA

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

waiting a month for snow is a horrendous situation to be in. we never have to wait for heat in the summer time. Things are so bad that showmethesnow stopped trying

our average high in summer is close to 90.  Our average high in the dead of winter is like 40.  So...figure it out

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Looks very light.  Freezing line is through central PA

Thanks. I figured temps were marginal even if it showed any precipitation. I’m not sure what his deal is this year...He’s like a little Berk

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Thanks. I figured temps were marginal even if it showed any precipitation. I’m not sure what his deal is this year...He’s like a little Berk

yeah its a little clipper that gives some light snow from central pa into new England.  Would need it to some how get under us which I don't really see being possible.

[Maestrobjwa]

If you ignore the fact this came off of Berk's site...these are still the raw numbers. (And to update...the BWI rainfall total for Fall as of the end of November was 20.07"

So, wet Falls seem to correlate to below normal winters...not good, not good! Hope we can buck the trend...

[Jandurin]

Were those winters where it didn't snow or it didn't precipitate at all?

[jackb979]

DT update