December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Cobalt]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Is that for the day 10 to 15 period?

Yeah, essentially nothing but a dusting from day 1-10 on the GEFS.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 hours ago, peribonca said:

What surprises me is the number of times we've had traces in June.... Anyone remember those? Maybe it was hail counted as snow?

 

6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that's what I wanna know, lol (ain't like we any "years without a summer" in the late 19th or 20th century! Man...can you imagine what that was like back in the early 19th century (around 1815-16) though? Like, snow in June? Lol)

Hail counts as frozen precip.

[showmethesnow]

About time I start posting again seeing as things are starting to really look up. Overnight EPS is starting to come on strong on a possible great pattern. Or if I wanted to hype it, EPIC pattern?  Of course the models in the longer ranges were throwing up a somewhat similar looks in the extended through the Christmas period and you see where we sit now it that regards. So maybe delayed but not denied?

Anyway, thought I would show how the EPS is starting to pick up on the pattern flip and/or the major warming of the stratosphere PV. Here is a run from 2 days ago. We have a fairly consolidated/strong PV sitting over the pole with an extension towards northern Alaska and an extension running through northern Greenland and to its west. The extension around Alaska is dampening the ridging in the west (PNA/EPO) and basically driving PAC air through Canada and the CONUS. The extension into and to the west of Greenland is effectively creating a +NAO where storms will have a hard time amplifying in the east and does not afford the ability to pull down and lock in cold air from our NW as a -NAO would. Overall it is still a workable pattern but one that would probably feature temp issues with any possible storms, storms that would typically be of the minor variety unless something timed right. One last thing to note. Notice where the ridging in Europe is setting up to the east of Greenland.

 

Now this is the overnight run. Overall we have a weaker and less consolidated PV with 2 distinct lobes (the eastern lobe splits as well a day or so later. Notice where we see the western lobe situated to the west of the Aleutians. This is pretty much where we want to see it. This allows stronger ridging in the west allowing for an EPO/PNA ridge to build up through Alaska creating a cross polar flow to deliver cold into the CONUS. Now to the east we are seeing some changes within the NAO domain. We have seen a shifting of that portion of the pv westward which is allowing the ridging from Europe to build into Greenland. This is important (-NAO) to create a backing of the flow which helps to lock in the cold and to create buckling of the flow allowing storms to amplify. One other thing I want to point out is the location of where the eastern pv is setting up just north of the Hudson Bay (circle below the arrow) in Canada. Typically we want to see that setup on or close to the Hudson Bay. At this point it is in a good position as is but I tend to believe we will see this feature shift southward on coming runs as the EPS probably starts picking up on stronger ridging/heights through Greenland. The question in my mind is how far south. Over the Hudson Bay would be perfect but I wouldn't rule out seeing this feature a good deal south of that. Now if we do see that push farther south we could live with it setting shop north of the central/western lakes though I would probably prefer not to see that. Where we do not want to see it is planted in SE Canada. If that occurs we are most likely talking major suppression and a padded cell for someone who will remain nameless.

 

One other thing I will bring up. I thought the EPS' look in the extended (+10 day) improved quite a bit for our snow chances. The snow means seem to agree as we continue to see improvements where we are now seeing 2 inches firmly in the cities with 3 on the PA/MA line. Control run is also showing 2 to 3 inches region wide.

 

[frd]

NAO on the way down in the short and medium term. After the  -NAO dissapearing for several winters it looks like its back. 

 

[frd]

Of all the animations I have watched the past few weeks of SSWEs / splits,  this one to me is the most fascinating.   

 

 

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...which direction the SSW cuts the PV cheese is basically gonna determine our fate for the winter? (or perhaps...could it be a feature that could break down at some point in like, February and give us a chance?)

I am far from an expert when it comes to the strat pv but I am thinking probably not. Watch frd's animation above with the pv split. Notice it does quite a bit of moving around. So though it may park in a general region for a time it should eventually move on. So though we may deal with a bout of suppression at some point chances are that should eventually relax as the pv shifts. Of course we have had a winter or two where it did park for most of the winter in SE Canada. If my memory serves me 1976 was one such case where we dealt with severe cold and little snow. That was the year the Chesapeake froze over.  And let me tell you, it was dam cold that winter. But I think a far bigger concern for us would be if we were to see the split where both lobes were on the other side of the globe but that doesn't look like that will be the case here. Again, no expert, but those are my thoughts.

 

eta: And if you were wondering who I was referring to with this in my previous post,

'Where we do not want to see it is planted in SE Canada. If that occurs we are most likely talking major suppression and a padded cell for someone who will remain nameless.'

Wonder no longer. 

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...which direction the SSW cuts the PV cheese is basically gonna determine our fate for the winter? (or perhaps...could it be a feature that could break down at some point in like, February and give us a chance?)

And as a side note...I'd imagine, then, that the rest of the northeast would suffer the same cold/dry fate if the worst case scenario happened, right?

(Hey look, @psuhoffman--a boogeyman that may not be imaginary...lol)

Out of that entire 34 page post that's what you pull out....unbelievable 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Out of that entire 34 page post that's what you pull out....unbelievable 

You trying to tell me my posts are too long? 

[Maestrobjwa]

I guess I've earned myself some trolling...I deserve it. But I would hope if I ask a question about how something works, folks would just explain it. (As some of you graciously have)

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Look, it he said if it parks in the wrong spot it could  basically be cold/dry. He did not clarify if that would be of a temporal nature or not until he responded to my comment. I have real, logical questions sometimes, ya know...(and @Ralph Wiggum in the other forum alluded to my same question in the other forum...so I ain't the only one this time)

So it moves around (like 2013/14)--thanks to someone else's post on that, I understand that now. Not an end-all, be-all (and in a nino...when it relaxes a bit...good things can happen!)

In my opinion you're exhausting to the point of it's not fun. I can only imagine how the guys feel who you constantly bombard with negative questions...I just have to read them or pass over them and I need a nap and a pacifier afterwards. Relax man...post in the panic room exclusively for awhile...please

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Out of that entire 34 page post that's what you pull out....unbelievable 

I’m tellin ya. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I've earned myself some trolling...I deserve it. But I would hope if I ask a question about how something works, folks would just explain it. (As some of you graciously have)

There’s a difference between asking questions to learn and peppering every LR thread with 3-4 posts per page with finding the one potential thing that could “go wrong” in a pattern and singling that out.  They don’t seem to be questions to learn...they seem to be panic posts.

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I've earned myself some trolling...I deserve it. But I would hope if I ask a question about how something works, folks would just explain it. (As some of you graciously have)

You honestly are worrying too much. Far more important things in life to be worrying about other then snow. It either snows or it doesn't and our lives move on in either case. End of story.

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I've earned myself some trolling...I deserve it. But I would hope if I ask a question about how something works, folks would just explain it. (As some of you graciously have)

Good thing your name is not Chuck.

 

 

 

Eta: OR IS IT!?

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So in other words...which direction the SSW cuts the PV cheese is basically gonna determine our fate for the winter? (or perhaps...could it be a feature that could break down at some point in like, February and give us a chance?)

And as a side note...I'd imagine, then, that the rest of the northeast would suffer the same cold/dry fate if the worst case scenario happened, right?

(Hey look, @psuhoffman--a boogeyman that may not be imaginary...lol)

They are all boogeymen right now because the pattern change is still a week away from even starting. And probably another 1-2 weeks after that before it matures and we really see what we're dealing with. So at this range it's impossible to see the details (like exact location of vorts and where exactly the PV is located at any given time) that would determine our fate for each specific threat. So you are worrying for no reason right now. 

From range all we are doing is looking for a favorable longwave pattern. Getting heights at the steering levels in places that favor a trough in the east to get storms to track under us. There are certain markets (-AO/nao/epo, +pna) that indicate a favorable snow pattern and that's all we're looking for when it's 10+ days away. 

Here is the rub...once we get a favorable pattern, all that means is we will have legit threats. That it can snow. But each specific threat will have details that will determine exactly where that storm hits.  It could hit richmond or D.C. or bomb late and crush NYC to Boston or cut inside too much and be an interior storm. And there is no freaking way to tell the small specifics that will determine that from 10+ days out. If I showed you the mean h5 pattern for 3 days before a storm that just missed us vs one that hit you won't be able to tell the difference in most cases.  Things like a 100 mile difference in confluence or a NS vort suppressing at the exact wrong time, or a slight weakness to the north of a system that lets it cut 50 miles too far west and we go to rain...won't be easily apparent in a general pattern. And it won't show up at all accurately on an ensemble at range. Vorts move around hundreds of miles run to run at range. Your freaking out about stuff that is impossible to know at this range. 

Now the good news is all indications are we will get a prolonged favorable pattern. Perhaps 4 weeks or more. Maybe even mid January to March. The longer we have a favorable longwave pattern the more chances we get. They won't all hit. Even in 2010 we missed some. But if you have a good pattern for 5 weeks during prime climo and we get 5 or 6 threats it would take monumental bad luck to strike out on them all. Could we?  Yea. But even these "epic fails" you bring up we got some snow and ended up near normal or even above median snowfall. They were just disappointing because they had epic potential and fell short. But it did snow. We didn't go 5 weeks with a -nao and got totally skunked. 

If we get unlucky and things fail so be it. How about we get the great pattern first before we start worrying about the luck regarding specific threats. And maybe you should take a break. This doesn't seem healthy. When I was younger I would let this affect me too much and had to step away from time to time for my own good.  Why are you worrying so much now over things that might not happen later and are totally unpredictable?  Your just making yourself stressed for no reason. If it fails then be upset. Being upset now just because it might fail seems unnecessary. 

[NorthArlington101]

So let’s see...
SSW events make it unlikely for the kind of hemispheric warmth that would doom a winter. This is the best look for a SSW event in years and there’s high confidence it’s coming soon.
Check
The medium range guidance and weeklies are showing both the Pacific pattern and Atlantic to rebound from the reshuffle during peak snow climo. 
Check
There are no ENSO surprises so far, and it looks like we’re still on track for a weak moodoki Niño. 
Check
Both the STJ and NS remain really active and that shows no sign of slowing down.
Check
Folks, we’re gonna get missed. We’re gonna have dry spells. But everything still lines up for at least one rocking period. 
It’s coming. I still have zero concerns for I-95. 

Which part of I-95, yours, ours, or Raleigh’s?

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess I've earned myself some trolling...I deserve it. But I would hope if I ask a question about how something works, folks would just explain it. (As some of you graciously have)

What happened to you?  Seriously?  

[midatlanticweather]

CPC Seeing the colder than normal

 

[snowmagnet]

17 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Wasn’t there a storm a few years ago (2014 or 2015) where it was in the teens at onset and then everyone complained about getting pixie dust and that it was too cold to form good dendrites?  We’ll complain about everything.  

That was a horrible storm. I think it was 2015. 

[NorthArlington101]

Switching topics, FWIW, EPS hasn't totally given up on a light Boxing Day event. Handfull of ok EPS members in the bunch. Those shortwaves moving through probably won't be resolved for a while, so its something to continue to watch in the short-medium range. I know Tony Pann and I will be watching. 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Logically, I'm aware...but, it's bigger than that...but I won't go any further into that here. I'll just look at it as...It will snow again eventually...be it this year or next (definitely due next year if this year doesn't produce)...only a matter of time.

May I suggest another possible stress reliever...  if you can maybe take a few days or a week... leave it open, and then go on a snow chase.  If you have the ability to wait until a specific storm and then just take off and chase great...but if you have a week you can get some time off during winter odds are you can find snow somewhere.  If the trough is out west go to the rockies somewhere.  If its in the east go to Vermont.  Go spend a week with 3 feet of snow on the ground and see snow falling most of the time and come back refreshed.  If you need snow for your mental health then go get it...because you seem close to a break down right now.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The last two winters happened...that's the only way I can explain it (some other stuff as well, but won't go into that here) Kinda put me through the ringer, mentally (first fail winters where I followed this forum, and could actually see how the fails happened--only been at this since around 2014. I'm only now seeing how our fails actually happen--now coming to terms with that. Contrary to belief, I'm under no delusion that we will hit on every storm. It's when it happens for an entire winter...and two winters in a row...that it really bothers me)

Last winter wasn't even that bad for Baltimore.  We had a decent event in early December.  A couple minor events in early January and one in February.  And a borderline warning level event in March.  It was actually about a median snowfall winter here.  People to our southwest in Northern VA have way more reason to complain about last year than we do.  But you keep talking like it didn't snow last year.  Do you know where you live?  It doesn't snow that much here.  If you need like 2 feet of snow in a winter to be happy you might want to move.  

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Truth is...it's both. Ironically, I am learning a bunch in my often frantic search of "what could go wrong". Now, from here on, I could veil the panic side of my questions and just ask about something specific...(like on the last post..."could this be a more stout feature or a temporary one?")

I feel your pain and we all want snow, and lots of it, but patience young grasshopper. Like the most knowledgeable posters, and many mets have mentioned, this winter is going almost exactly the way many of our best winters have gone in the past. It looks like we may be setting ourselves up for an epic pattern in our best climo. You just have to hang in there and be patient. Enjoy the holidays, and by the time you return, the pattern should at least be not horrible so that some threats may start showing up, and by then, we should get a better idea if/when/how the really good pattern is going to show.

[H2O]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Last winter wasn't even that bad for Baltimore.  We had a decent event in early December.  A couple minor events in early January and one in February.  And a borderline warning level event in March.  It was actually about a median snowfall winter here.  People to our southwest in Northern VA have way more reason to complain about last year than we do.  But you keep talking like it didn't snow last year.  Do you know where you live?  It doesn't snow that much here.  If you need like 2 feet of snow in a winter to be happy you might want to move.  

[frd]

Ah, my early Christmas present 

New JMA says we going to get our asres kicked :-) 

Saw it on JB's video and Ben posted too 

Excellent overall agreement , the hammer cometh ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

 

 

[osfan24]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Last winter wasn't even that bad for Baltimore.  We had a decent event in early December.  A couple minor events in early January and one in February.  And a borderline warning level event in March.  It was actually about a median snowfall winter here.  People to our southwest in Northern VA have way more reason to complain about last year than we do.  But you keep talking like it didn't snow last year.  Do you know where you live?  It doesn't snow that much here.  If you need like 2 feet of snow in a winter to be happy you might want to move.  

We all got spoiled by the heater we were on from 2009-2016. Even in a horrible year in 2016, we had an epic snowstorm. We had two winters in there where it was really cold and we kept getting hit by storms. We had our most epic snow season ever in there where we had three huge storms. 2010-2011 also had that fun bowling ball where went from rain to concrete and it snowed like 8 inches over a 3-4 hour period. And the 2014 storm around Valentines Day was also good, though much better for you than city area folks. That was an epic snowstorm for many northwest folks even if it was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the immediate metro. 

And now we've had two straight crappy winters. I know we ended up around climo last year, but how we got there sucked. We nickeled and dimed our way there, and a bunch of those smaller events didn't even stick on roads and wasn't even really enough to build a snowman or go sledding. I'll admit I'm even a bit anxious just to see a moderate storm where we get 8-10 hours of moderate snowfall and a nice 3-6/4-8 with lots of road stickage.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, frd said:

Ah, my early Christmas present 

New JMA says we going to get our asres kicked :-) 

Saw it on JB's video and Ben posted too 

Excellent overall agreement , the hammer cometh ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

 

 

It's universal across all guidance right now.  Euro weeklies and seasonal, UKMET, JMA, CFSv2, even the lesser known JV squad stuff I've seen has the same general look to it.  And now the start of the transition is showing up at the end of the ensembles.  And it's supported by the current SST analogs.  Low solar.  Strat stuff...  there is absolutely NOTHING to say "uh oh" right now.  Even ground truth...we HAVE HAD SNOW...and its still early. 

I guess maybe that snow didn't count because it was November?  I dunno.  I suppose after the last 2 years some people just won't let themselves feel optimistic until they are measuring their first warning level event.  I am less jaded perhaps because I think of it this way, we have spent most of the last 2 years in a crap pattern.  It's not like we were getting skunked during great blocking periods.  When we finally did get good blocking (transient in March 2017 and an extended period in March 2018) we got a pretty good sleet storm and a pretty good snowstorm.  And had those periods come mid winter probably would have done even better.  We have not struck out when we had good patterns.  We just didn't have good patters enough.  So this worrying seems over the top to me.  But I've said my peace so I am done trying to convince people to relax and be optimistic for a bit.  If they want to continue to freak out have at it.  

[frd]

Wonder what the accuracy of the Euro is to the GFS in this area of the strat.

I would simply assume that the superior physics of the Euro would equate to a better, more accurate forecast. 

 

I  am not sure about the outcomes here for our areas versus a split or no split. Seems the Euro and the Canadian have it and the GFS no . 

Judah says too difficult to tell at this time.

I know a couple days ago the GFS ensembles vs the op were not even on the same page.  

 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But I've said my peace so I am done trying to convince people to relax and be optimistic for a bit.  If they want to continue to freak out have at it.  

I have to ask my daughter who is mastering in psychology whether there is indeed a speciality in the field targeted to the winter syndrome called solsticeweathermodelphobia disorder, or the very critical condition called cyclonesurpressionitis .  Scary......  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

I have to ask my daughter who is mastering in psychology whether there is indeed a speciality in the field targeted to the winter syndrome called solsticeweathermodelphobia disorder, or the very critical condition called cyclonesurpressionitis .  Scary......  

Psychiatrists should lurk here and then make targeted troll posts just to push prospective patients into their chairs.