December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I know we can find ways to fail in any pattern but some of this stuff people are finding to worry about has me rolling my eyes. For years everyone was saying "hope we get a modoki nino" and now we have one, everything looks on track, by all observable measures things are lining up exactly how we want...and some are inventing things to lose sleep over. 

The pattern advertised on seasonal guidance and analogs looks great and the kind of discreet issues that can ruin any specific threat can't be seen at range. So they can drive themselves crazy with every fail scenario and I'll just have faith we will get our chances and some will probably hit. And if they all fail I'll be disappointed then, no reason ruining my mood now over bad things that haven't yet and probably won't happen. 

I’m not Bob.....but you nailed it. Enough signs of this coming have been out there for enough time to know this upcoming period has legs....and hopefully strong ones. Sure it can flop but let’s worry about that if/when those signs (like suppression as Bob just alluded to) start showing up with regularity. And if it does, it’s still a workable pattern.  Until then enjoy. 

[frd]

I mentioned this earlier, and forgive me I forgot who replied, but the answer was  in regards to, do you believe Jason that the trough set up far to our West? 

Anyone want to debunk or add any research to this? 

Honestly I would think the tracks would be EC or even surpressed , but I am assuming -NAO and displaced Canadian SE vortex, what Jason is saying I am not so sure, but he knows his stuff and does research , so I am a bit perplexed. 

HM would know. Hello ? @HM   maybe @WxUSAF could comment 

Maybe the pattern starts there, MJO 7 and 8 , and then goes to EC storm tracks.   

 

 

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably because with one, there's a better chance of the other? 

Because “extreme” cold is dry as **** and kills snow around here 99 times out of 100. We don’t need or want extreme cold for snow. A piece of the polar vortex sitting over us will make the frozen bay weirdos happy but not so much for snow people. 09-10 wasn’t all that cold...but 1976-77 sure was. I would prefer the former regime and take my chances over “extreme cold”.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This. Highs in the upper 20s will be just fine.

Most of us love  extreme weather everything except maybe heat

[North Balti Zen]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This. Highs in the upper 20s will be just fine.

Should have read farther. This. High five!

[psuhoffman]

Ok I'm out. You all have fun for the next 2 pages worrying about it being too cold now. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There is certainly appeal to having a cold powder system. Those rare sub 20s snowfalls are awesome. 

That said, what I'd really root for (if I were down here) would be a beautifully modeled and totally simple dose of epic overrunning. 

As long as we get that split flow out west....that would be just fine by many snowhounds. I love me a good Miller A but hey...snow is snow.

It’s sorta like golf. They don’t ask how you scored...they ask what you scored. 

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ok I'm out. You all have fun for the next 2 pages worrying about it being too cold now. 

Sorry. Wasn’t worrying. Just noting that those rooting for or looking for extreme cold means rooting for, generally, a shutout pattern down here for snowstorms. 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I'm out. You all have fun for the next 2 pages worrying about it being too cold now. 

You’ll be back when the 18zs show a cutter. Lol

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

There is certainly appeal to having a cold powder system. Those rare sub 20s snowfalls are awesome. 

That said, what I'd really root for (if I were down here) would be a beautifully modeled and totally simple dose of epic overrunning. 

I loved that late Jan 2010 event, even in the most epic of winters with the 3 big storms. Snowed moderately all day, temp was 15 degrees, little to no wind, and ended up with 7". Plus it was a bit of a surprise, and a prelude for what was to come.. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I'm out. You all have fun for the next 2 pages worrying about it being too cold now. 

I don't worry. And never about it being "too cold". Not where I live.

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I don't worry. And never about it being "too cold". Not where I live.

Wasn’t there a storm a few years ago (2014 or 2015) where it was in the teens at onset and then everyone complained about getting pixie dust and that it was too cold to form good dendrites?  We’ll complain about everything.  

[poolz1]

Put a trough in the center of the country....with the amount of cold pushing we'll be snowing on a SW wind. 

[Scraff]

Meh. Who the F needs deep cold!? You people have some nerve. I’m only here to watch people panic when the rain / snow line gets perilously close every storm. Way more fun in the OBS thread...followed by the panic room. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

25 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure why anyone would want extreme cold who also wants snow. 

Because NC's snow pack has dwindled and needs refreshing.

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Most of us love  extreme weather everything except maybe heat

Ok, after 50”+ in January, I’ll be good with a week with the pErLer VrteX overhead.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Because NC's snow pack has dwindled and needs refreshing.

Yea, cfs has a strong signal for a parade of miller b's that crush SNE and southern slider miller a's that destroy the SE. I'm worried AF

[Bob Chill]

Uh oh

[PrinceFrederickWx]

30 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Wasn’t there a storm a few years ago (2014 or 2015) where it was in the teens at onset and then everyone complained about getting pixie dust and that it was too cold to form good dendrites?  We’ll complain about everything.  

President’s Day 2015. I did well with that storm IMBY but the cities underperformed. Smallest snowflakes I’ve ever seen which led to some very bizarre accumulation patterns in my yard.

[EastCoast NPZ]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Uh oh

Snow for miami.

[Ji]

Your thinking of 2005. He is talking about the year before that. 

Yes you are right. Jan 2005 storm. 03-04 was a good winter in that we has so many chances to track but we failed on most.

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, cfs has a strong signal for a parade of miller b's that crush SNE and southern slider miller a's that destroy the SE. I'm worried AF

I desrved that...c'mon, let me have it. Maybe it'll shake me into common sense, lol

[Ji]

19z gfs has a snow xmas eve

[Ji]

Yea, cfs has a strong signal for a parade of miller b's that crush SNE and southern slider miller a's that destroy the SE. I'm worried AF

97% of the world is blocked ...so severe suppression coming . Congrats Jamaica

[luckyamaha]

Snow for miami.

You realize it's the crap CFS and has barely any weight

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I desrved that...c'mon, let me have it. Maybe it'll shake me into common sense, lol

I used to be over the top for years around here. Especially back when it was easternwx. I was one of those weenies who would be optimistic with a d15 gfs threat in the middle of a pacific blowtorch. I always thought there was a chance even when all the mets and smart weenies would tell me to back it down. 

We all learn at our own speed. After ungodly amounts of fails I started figuring it out. There's basically 2 patterns here... shutout and non shutout. Perfect patterns don't exist because we can fail in any pattern. Some are better than others of course but overall we're either in the game or out of it.

Right now we're out of the game. There's always a slim chance a small window like the one around Christmas works out but when the deck is that stacked against you it's best to basically ignore it unless something looks possible inside of 4 days. Otherwise it's a bad investment of time and emotions.

I am pretty optimistic about January. Every single piece of guidance is showing basically the same thing... a pattern that's pretty good for snow around here. However, it's 2 weeks away and there is no way to have even a sliver of confidence in knowing what could work for or against us. Basically, it's a total waste of time and bad emotional investment to worry about a single thing right now other than how quickly we can get out of the shutout pattern. Once we get a good handle on that we can take some guesses on what looks good or bad. 

I see you often worry about analogs. They can be useful for general ideas but the last thing I would do is worry that we missed a storm by 100 miles in 2004 and it's a sign of things to come. It just doesn't work like that at all. There's way too much chaos embedded in the atmosphere to fret over a year repeating itself. 

[87storms]

feels like we've had several crappy winters in a row, but really it was only last winter ('16 was worth 2 winters anyway).  and anyone who's lived here long enough to tolerate the traffic and cost of living knows we are generally awful at snow until january.  if we get a couple of inches in december that is a win...kinda like the wizards at this point...take any win you can get.

edit: '16 was worth 3 winters...maybe 5.

[87storms]

dang, i forgot about '16/17 being pretty crappy lol.  jan '16 is clearly still in my mind.  

anyway...my thoughts on we normally suck at snow until january still stands.

and i'm in for the xmas eve light overrunning event.

[Ji]

Bob is a prophet. Suppression city till Feb 14th(cutter)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018121918&fh=288

[87storms]

i should have looked at this first...

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf

we're due.