psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh, and could somebody tell me what in the world happened in the 2003-04 winter that caused it to be mediocre for up here? (Dang, looks like half of our snowfall we got in December...yikes) OK first of all why do you keep talking about 2004 like it was an awful winter... all 3 airports beat their median snowfall by about 2-3". It was probably a top 40 percentile winter, meaning it was better than about 60 percent of our winters. It wasnt great but it was a better than normal winter. Second it was the year after a nino and the nino faded to neutral conditions by winter, so the comparison to this years pattern is bad. This year the pattern is establishing and that year it was breaking down. That winter was front loaded and this one is likely to be back loaded. No reason to expect a similar result. Finally, the period following the strat warm was very very very cold. There was one very good snowstorm in there. Overall the period was pretty dry, the trough axis set up a little too far east and we got some clippers and other than the one good overrunning event not much else during the 3 week cold period. But it wasn't a bad winter. It just wasn't epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Day 10 euro has promise. Stj waves in the southeast with a 1042 high pressing down into the lakes and the boundary pressing just to our NE. I could see getting a wave to track right in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro keeps the accumulating snow Christmas to north of the mason Dixon and the significant snows north of the PA turnpike. We might start as some light snow north of D.C. before dryslot. Need the track 50-100 miles south. Low tracks into SW PA before jumping east. Need to get that to like central WV or south to have a chance basically we need to have the 00z track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OK first of all why do you keep talking about 2004 like it was an awful winter... all 3 airports beat their median snowfall by about 2-3". It was probably a top 40 percentile winter, meaning it was better than about 60 percent of our winters. It wasnt great but it was a better than normal winter. Second it was the year after a nino and the nino faded to neutral conditions by winter, so the comparison to this years pattern is bad. This year the pattern is establishing and that year it was breaking down. That winter was front loaded and this one is likely to be back loaded. No reason to expect a similar result. Finally, the period following the strat warm was very very very cold. There was one very good snowstorm in there. Overall the period was pretty dry, the trough axis set up a little too far east and we got some clippers and other than the one good overrunning event not much else during the 3 week cold period. But it wasn't a bad winter. It just wasn't epic. Looking at it...you're right...18 inches wasn't terrible. Coulda been a lot more (someone in the south said they got a big storm that February?). Now...was 1979-80 also a relaxation of the Niño, or? (I know the previous two winters were awesome!). I'm just trying to key in on why these rainy years on the top 5 list didn't get followed by a lot of snow-- 1889, 1979 1996, 2003 (with 2003-04 having the best results--though still slightly below average) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OK first of all why do you keep talking about 2004 like it was an awful winter... all 3 airports beat their median snowfall by about 2-3". It was probably a top 40 percentile winter, meaning it was better than about 60 percent of our winters. It wasnt great but it was a better than normal winter. Second it was the year after a nino and the nino faded to neutral conditions by winter, so the comparison to this years pattern is bad. This year the pattern is establishing and that year it was breaking down. That winter was front loaded and this one is likely to be back loaded. No reason to expect a similar result. Finally, the period following the strat warm was very very very cold. There was one very good snowstorm in there. Overall the period was pretty dry, the trough axis set up a little too far east and we got some clippers and other than the one good overrunning event not much else during the 3 week cold period. But it wasn't a bad winter. It just wasn't epic. 2004 sucked because that storm gave us 4-5 inches when it had us at 2 feet at one point and it gave New England 30 plus inches. Dec 2003 storm was one of my favorites though. 48 hours of frozen precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro keeps the accumulating snow Christmas to north of the mason Dixon and the significant snows north of the PA turnpike. We might start as some light snow north of D.C. before dryslot. Need the track 50-100 miles south. Low tracks into SW PA before jumping east. Need to get that to like central WV or south to have a chance FV3 has a similar system but its way south in the Carolinas. We just need a compromise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 GEFS certainly show promise in the NYE window. Look at the 264hr panel 2m temp anomalies on TT and click back through the previous runs. GEFS clearly pushing the cold air in faster and correspondingly the storm track to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey--I can't put my name on this one! this would be the Tony Pann snow all the way, lol If it trends our way, he'd have the coup of the year so far! XD Tony Pann actually did a very good job on 2002 Christmas Eve snow that many in the DMV saw. He was fairly bullish compared to others. Maybe Christmas snow is his thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 2004 sucked because that storm gave us 4-5 inches when it had us at 2 feet at one point and it gave New England 30 plus inches. Dec 2003 storm was one of my favorites though. 48 hours of frozen precip Your thinking of 2005. He is talking about the year before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, Ji said: FV3 has a similar system but its way south in the Carolinas. We just need a compromise lol We have a chance. But no way guidance nails that kind of progressive wave on a fast NS dominant flow at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 @frd From watching model runs and reading some posts over the past few days I gather that there *may be a positive result in the eastern US from this event. I know this is certainly still up in the air but quite a few runs place a piece of the vortex in eastern Canada....both gfs and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Looking at it...you're right...18 inches wasn't terrible. Coulda been a lot more (someone in the south said they got a big storm that February?). Now...was 1979-80 also a relaxation of the Niño, or? (I know the previous two winters were awesome!). I'm just trying to key in on why these rainy years on the top 5 list didn't get followed by a lot of snow-- 1889, 1979 1996, 2003 (with 2003-04 having the best results--though still slightly below average) Your obsessing over one thing. Too small a sample. Especially when those years were all drastically different in other ways. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Nice to see two mini threats to track over the next 10 days. Hard to say now if either will produce anything but i was all but resigned to having nothing to track until early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your obsessing over one thing. Too small a sample. Especially when those years were all drastically different in other ways. Correlation doesn't mean causation. Looks to me like the moisture transport system completely breaks down in early Jan so we should get little or no precip once the colder air gets here. Hopefully it flips back once we get to mid Feb so we can enjoy the final 2 weeks of met winter before the nino se ridge sets up in March and we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 EPS heading the same way as the gefs. Remember gefs goes out another day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looks to me like the moisture transport system completely breaks down in early Jan so we should get little or no precip once the colder air gets here. Hopefully it flips back once we get to mid Feb so we can enjoy the final 2 weeks of met winter before the nino se ridge sets up in March and we roast. The hemispheric energies are too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 22 minutes ago, poolz1 said: From watching model runs and reading some posts over the past few days I gather that there *may be a positive result in the eastern US from this event. I know this is certainly still up in the air but quite a few runs place a piece of the vortex in eastern Canada....both gfs and Euro. Thanks. Appreciate that. In the end regardless what happens hopefully we benefit as there is still a lot up in the air versus splits, or major warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 @Bob Chill I know we can find ways to fail in any pattern but some of this stuff people are finding to worry about has me rolling my eyes. For years everyone was saying "hope we get a modoki nino" and now we have one, everything looks on track, by all observable measures things are lining up exactly how we want...and some are inventing things to lose sleep over. The pattern advertised on seasonal guidance and analogs looks great and the kind of discreet issues that can ruin any specific threat can't be seen at range. So they can drive themselves crazy with every fail scenario and I'll just have faith we will get our chances and some will probably hit. And if they all fail I'll be disappointed then, no reason ruining my mood now over bad things that haven't yet and probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The hemispheric energies are too low. Shut up Chuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Shut up Chuck! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Nice uptick in snowfall on EPS towards the end of the run. Also likes the idea of maybe something around New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I know we can find ways to fail in any pattern but some of this stuff people are finding to worry about has me rolling my eyes. For years everyone was saying "hope we get a modoki nino" and now we have one, everything looks on track, by all observable measures things are lining up exactly how we want...and some are inventing things to lose sleep over. The pattern advertised on seasonal guidance and analogs looks great and the kind of discreet issues that can ruin any specific threat can't be seen at range. So they can drive themselves crazy with every fail scenario and I'll just have faith we will get our chances and some will probably hit. And if they all fail I'll be disappointed then, no reason ruining my mood now over bad things that haven't yet and probably won't happen. Lol Ji and Maestrobater are people? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nice uptick in snowfall on EPS towards the end of the run. Also likes the idea of maybe something around New Years. @psuhoffman if you have time can you check and tell me does the afternoon Euro still show a split of the vortex. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, frd said: @psuhoffman if you have time can you check and tell me does the afternoon Euro still show a split of the vortex. Thanks Looks identical to last run in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks identical to last run in that regard. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 36 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Nice to see two mini threats to track over the next 10 days. Hard to say now if either will produce anything but i was all but resigned to having nothing to track until early Jan. This ^^^^ That's the spirit. I said a week ago that my hunch was that the warmup would be muted and for that alone I’m happy. Not sure how things shake out, but we all know the signs for a decent stretch of opportunities may be looming, so let’s just enjoy seeing this evolve and spike some eggnog along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 @psuhoffman I am really starting to believe now But wait there is more coming up next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Not sure why anyone would want extreme cold who also wants snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Not sure why anyone would want extreme cold who also wants snow. Probably because with one, there's a better chance of the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Not sure why anyone would want extreme cold who also wants snow. This. Highs in the upper 20s will be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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