psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 5:50 PM, WxUSAF said: 2” increase from where it was before? That’s a pretty big signal at 10 day leads. Expand There is definitely a strong signal that the day 10-15 period in general is a threat but the GEFS isn't locked in on one specific event. There are several waves in that time period. The one around the 30th really isn't looking good. Most are rain. There is a better hit rate with the next 2 waves around the 1/2 and 3/4 but a LOT of the snowfall on the mean is from a couple HUGE hits on the ensemble. There are then a lot of minor events where we get some snow on the front end before a chance to rain. Then some total misses...not a large percentage actually showing a big hit yet. I think we could score something as the pattern establishes but we all know that often we do better later once the pattern matures. So it wouldn't surprise me if we have to wait a little into January before we score...but I like everything I am seeing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 5:55 PM, NorthArlington101 said: yeah, it goes from a dusting to 2" or so in D.C. 6 members seem to jump on it, which isn't anything to scoff at. A couple of them are definitely the snow output on WxBell being funky though, counting sleet/frza. Expand Ah ok. I thought mean was already like 3-4” for that period on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 4:59 PM, jaydreb said: I’ve seen this before. Expand Don't worry. They always trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 6:17 PM, Wonderdog said: Don't worry. They always trend north. Expand always.....how quickly you forget what happened 3 weeks ago.... Verbatim on the Ops its funny how we go from cutterville to suppression depression. So many ways to hurt onesself. Just playing around. Not worried about anything past 7 days on Op runs. Just having some fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Euro takes a nice track for the storm on the 30th. Honestly, there are so many SWs that its going to be tough to feel confident in any solution. Seems like a safe bet that there will be a storm near us in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 6:57 PM, LP08 said: Euro takes a nice track for the storm on the 30th. Honestly, there are so many SWs that its going to be tough to feel confident in any solution. Seems like a safe bet that there will be a storm near us in that time frame. Expand Yup. Haven’t seen precip yet but guessing a light snow based on 850 and 500? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Actually wait, euro still has light snow for Christmas evening for MD! Seems totally on its own there but I’ll hug the sh-t out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 6:59 PM, WxUSAF said: Yup. Haven’t seen precip yet but guessing a light snow based on 850 and 500? Expand Surface is warm but its close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 ^boooo close enough for now I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Any maps with temps for the UKIE? Has the XMAS eve band through the corridor but I can't find temps for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 7:02 PM, LP08 said: Surface is warm but its close. Looks like crap in terms of qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 7:52 PM, LP08 said: Any maps with temps for the UKIE? Has the XMAS eve band through the corridor but I can't find temps for it. Expand I don't think there are any after 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 6:52 PM, pasnownut said: always.....how quickly you forget what happened 3 weeks ago.... Verbatim on the Ops its funny how we go from cutterville to suppression depression. So many ways to hurt onesself. Just playing around. Not worried about anything past 7 days on Op runs. Just having some fun. Expand That was an attempt at humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:16 PM, Wonderdog said: That was an attempt at humor. Expand I got it. But when there is no snow in the forecast and we are waiting for the pattern to become epic it can get a little testy in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:07 PM, yoda said: I don't think there are any after 72 hours Expand Its hour 66. Looks like the others with the surface toasty-ish. 850s are fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:22 PM, LP08 said: Its hour 66. Looks like the others with the surface toasty-ish. 850s are fine though. Expand 1 mangled flake and it’s a white Christmas in my twisted weenie mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:18 PM, SnowGolfBro said: I got it. But when there is no snow in the forecast and we are waiting for the pattern to become epic it can get a little testy in here. Expand The dog can't be held responsible for weenie enthusiasm on the second day of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:27 PM, Wonderdog said: The dog can't be held responsible for weenie enthusiasm on the second day of winter. Expand What else can we do besides obsess over weather. I opened my 401K account and that was an anchored 582dm ridge centered over the the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:35 PM, BristowWx said: What else can we do besides obsess over weather. I opened my 401K account and that was an anchored 582dm ridge centered over the the region. Expand LOL. Don't worry, your account will move "north" after New Years and I'll be making spare change with my new toy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:36 PM, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. Expand Hopefully just convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:07 PM, nj2va said: Hopefully just convective feedback. Expand First thing I've seen in a while that bothered me even a little. Just one run. But it lost the progression up top completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:09 PM, psuhoffman said: First thing I've seen in a while that bothered me even a little. Just one run. But it lost the progression up top completely. Expand The progression? (I'm not sure what I'm looking at--care to elaborate a bit?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:10 PM, Maestrobjwa said: The progression? (I'm not sure what I'm looking at) Expand It lost the blocking look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:12 PM, psuhoffman said: It lost the blocking look Expand Could you post the previous run to compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:12 PM, psuhoffman said: It lost the blocking look Expand If we transition to more of an EPO ridge vs a PNA ridge there won’t be any blocking on the Atlantic side. At this stage it’s too early to say for sure this will be entirely PNA induced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:16 PM, SnowGoose69 said: If we transition to more of an EPO ridge vs a PNA ridge there won’t be any blocking on the Atlantic side. At this stage it’s too early to say for sure this will be entirely PNA induced Expand Without blocking I assume storms may form and track under us but not slow down and deepen so timing becomes more of a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 8:36 PM, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. Yea this pattern change seems like a fantasy. The euro can't even agree with its weeklies. This winter is reminding me of 01-02 where jb promised a pattern change and when it finally happened...it was December...2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:26 PM, Ji said: On 12/21/2018 at 8:36 PM, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. Expand Yea this pattern change seems like a fantasy. The euro can't even agree with its weeklies. This winter is reminding me of 01-02 where jb promised a pattern change and when it finally happened...it was December...2003 Expand Calm down. It was one run. And it wasn't awful, could still head in the right direction, but it wasn't a positive step for sure. On the whole things still look good. Mjo heading towards cold phases in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 On 12/21/2018 at 9:26 PM, Ji said: On 12/21/2018 at 8:36 PM, psuhoffman said: Not a good EPS run towards the end. Hopefully just a bad run. Expand Yea this pattern change seems like a fantasy. The euro can't even agree with its weeklies. This winter is reminding me of 01-02 where jb promised a pattern change and when it finally happened...it was December...2003 Expand Jeez you had to go there. Right for the jugular. Bit early to say it’s that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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