aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 5:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Gfs, GGEM, and FV3 all have decent vort passes. FV3 has a swath of rain to our south. I think there’s room for more surface reflection just based on how things look aloft. Expand South huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It's probably rushing things a little...but we're getting there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 It's happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Lol- ninja. Worth a double post cuz it's about to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 5:45 PM, leesburg 04 said: South huh? Expand The northern stream is fairly dominant. I’m surprised the Euro has held the events from the 24th-26th as long as it has. The GFS hasn’t really bitten once yet. Until it does it’s hard to get excited about it as the GFS historically handles these northern stream potential squash job setups better. It’s somewhat good seeing the UKMET at least showing upper level signatures though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 GEFS want to get the NA right before the PAC.....Workable in prime climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The Stratosphere warming has begun. I did some great research on easternuswx regarding this. 2003-2004 was the last big one at this time (MJO also) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 5:53 PM, poolz1 said: GEFS want to get the NA right before the PAC.....Workable in prime climo... Expand True, that progression and sequence was mentioned by a few mets and weather pros. I tend to agree with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 5:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Lol- ninja. Worth a double post cuz it's about to happen Expand The great "fantasy land" looks from the seasonal guidance are starting to progress into the range of ensembles right on schedule, maybe even a week ahead. Because it was also supported by analogs and the logical progression given the weak PV this year and the mjo wave timing I was never nervous. But maybe those that were more skeptical will breathe a little easier now. ETA: who am I kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Amy is right on the mark as usual As HM chimes in , there will be an impact from this event, but figuring out the details is not easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 4:54 PM, losetoa6 said: Dont have surface plots but Ukie has a couple weak waves of low pressure come through. Mon and then Wed it appears ...could be some light frozen. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Pattern looks great, torch coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 @frd yes I've been following them both and I think HM sums it up well (and so we can understand ). No matter the strength of the SSW, something is happening up top, and something that will have an effect on the PV. Most simply translated. Someones gonna get cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 After Stratosphere warmings at this time (using Dec 17- Jan 3 as a base) Stratosphere coolings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 From Ventrice re the MJO and @psuhoffman that the ensembles are beginning to show the seasonal's progression. The composite looks similiar to the seasonals and weeklies to a degree. What I find interesting is the commnet by Jason where he mentions that in the US, because of the weak polar vortex event, the trough axis may shift West. That's a new one to me. Thats based on his research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 @frdI would hope that logical progression of Nino and climo therin could minimize westward progression. But that’s a blend of more wishcasting then factual based reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 If 2003-04 is being mentioned as an analog...doesn't give me much calmness...south got more snowfall than we did that winter too, didn't it? And really...how can we be sure these "promising looks" ain't gonna be too cold? And quite frankly...I think I would feel better if we had a miss north first (aside from a us getting a hit first). And again...what about this overactive NS? Would this strat warming whatever calm that down? (and I also wonder if the STJ is gonna stay active...or suddenly dry up so things get suppressed or something? (Are we better off with an H5 look where we are right on the line temperature-wise?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:27 PM, Maestrobjwa said: If 2003-04 is being mentioned as an analog...doesn't give me much calmness...south got more snowfall than we did that winter too, didn't it? And really...how can we be sure these "promising looks" ain't gonna be too cold? And quite frankly...I think I would feel better if we had a miss north first (aside from a us getting a hit first). And again...what about this overactive NS? Would this strat warming whatever calm that down? (and I also wonder if the STJ is gonna stay active...or suddenly dry up so things get suppressed or something? (Are we better off with an H5 look where we are right on the line temperature-wise?) Expand Like your enthusiasm but your like a hampster on the wheel buddy. I know you want snow, but I’d suggest just letting things evolve and not searching for ways to fail. We all know they exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 From TT Euro @ 144 doesn't look bad with 1008 low in southern Illinois and HP in QC/ON. Anyone with access to see surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:35 PM, peribonca said: From TT Euro @ 144 doesn't look bad with 1008 low in southern Illinois and HP in QC/ON. Anyone with access to see surface? Expand More amp than 0z. Pumping heights in front so I don't think it will be as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:35 PM, peribonca said: From TT Euro @ 144 doesn't look bad with 1008 low in southern Illinois and HP in QC/ON. Anyone with access to see surface?At 156, light snow in MD, not below freezing though. Rain in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:37 PM, NorthArlington101 said: At 156, light snow in MD, not below freezing though. Rain in VA. Expand Pretty bad slp track. Never goes well with a nw track. Unfortunately a track like that is a heavy favorite until things improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:27 PM, pasnownut said: @frdI would hope that logical progression of Nino and climo therin could minimize westward progression. But that’s a blend of more wishcasting then factual based reasoning. Expand Yeah, most times I agree with Jason, but I am not sure, meaning not sure what data base he has and how deeply his research goes on this topic. I would tend to follow your reasoning @pasnownut. We will see what happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Euro has some flurries from the weak wave the U.K. has Xmas eve morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Euro keeps the accumulating snow Christmas to north of the mason Dixon and the significant snows north of the PA turnpike. We might start as some light snow north of D.C. before dryslot. Need the track 50-100 miles south. Low tracks into SW PA before jumping east. Need to get that to like central WV or south to have a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 6:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Pretty bad slp track. Never goes well with a nw track. Unfortunately a track like that is a heavy favorite until things improve. Expand On 12/19/2018 at 6:52 PM, psuhoffman said: Euro keeps the accumulating snow Christmas to north of the mason Dixon and the significant snows north of the PA turnpike. We might start as some light snow north of D.C. before dryslot. Need the track 50-100 miles south. Low tracks into SW PA before jumping east. Need to get that to like central WV or south to have a chance Expand Great...Look, in case we gotta suffer the rest of the winter, the least the weather can do is let this trend better so we can get our first white Christmas in 16 years. Heck, the atmosphere wanted to push things south so much, a couple weeks ago...so now is the time to do it!!!! (PLEASE!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 For the visuals only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Oh, and could somebody tell me what in the world happened in the 2003-04 winter that caused it to be mediocre for up here? (Dang, looks like half of our snowfall we got in December...yikes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 7:10 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Oh, and could somebody tell me what in the world happened in the 2003-04 winter that caused it to be mediocre for up here? (Dang, looks like half of our snowfall we got in December...yikes) Expand You need to stop worrying on each page of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 On 12/19/2018 at 7:11 PM, North Balti Zen said: You need to stop worrying on each page of this thread. Expand Sorry...I know my Euro post was off the rails...but my 2004 question was a legit one; Since 2003-04 keeps coming up as an analog...(and had an SSW) I wanna know what went wrong that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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