WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Let’s go. Time for a new thread, new mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 I like this. looks nice and fresh let's get this goingSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Agreed. That thread was making me angry. I feel reborn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Reading experts in other sub forums seems to reinforce the notion we get into a favorable pattern in Jan. I’m sure the first or second threat will miss us but I feel very confident we’ll see our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Hey @WinterWxLuvr you might wanna unpin the old thread (or lock it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Hey gang I think we might see some snow in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 2019 is going to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 If this winter gets cranking in early January, I'll be very thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 GFS is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 35 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS is a disaster Yes I believe you are correct. Worse run since the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Yes I believe you are correct. Worse run since the last one. At least GEFS has slightly bellow normal anomaly cool Christmas morning then we get full sun angle Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 7 hours ago, Ji said: GFS is a disaster Yeah.. I just did my morning "tap, tap, tap, tap" through the GFS... hoping that something pops up in the long range... at this point the next 10 days seem fairly set.. maybe Wisp will get a quick 6 inches on the backside next weekend.. could be chase worthy if someone was really desperate... Dynamic backend events are fun up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Searching for glimmers of hope...just like everyone else. I did like the Aleutian Low look toward the end of the EPS run last night. A more classic el nino Pac look developing and looks similar to the weeklies. Wait and see if it has legs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Searching for glimmers of hope...just like everyone else. I did like the Aleutian Low look toward the end of the EPS run last night. A more classic el nino Pac look developing and looks similar to the weeklies. Wait and see if it has legs... Yeah I have been noticing some signs of life on the last few runs of the EPS. NPAC looks better, hints of some NA help, and indication of a piece of the PV over N Canada. 850 temp anomalies are actually negative in eastern half of Canada towards the end of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 I am seeing the zonal winds are starting to trend lower now after weeks and weeks with little decrease. PV-Forecast @Forecas55175638 6h6 hours ago More The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N is today (GFS analysis): 21.3 m/s Weakest zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N in ERA interim record for todays date is: -16.4 m/s 1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 Over-night runs continue the theme with the strat progress. Things seem to be on target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertRath Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 So the pattern through the end of the month is pretty well set at this point? Slightly above temps with rain and cutters? Is there anything that could change that post Christmas leading into the new year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, RobertRath said: So the pattern through the end of the month is pretty well set at this point? Slightly above temps with rain and cutters? Is there anything that could change that post Christmas leading into the new year? When it comes to rain, warmth, bad patterns the models seem to be deadly accurate at long range. I wouldn’t expect wholesale change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 So, there has been a rather significant decline with regards to snowcover in north America. Interesting look on the chart, if you simply focus on the years which in Nov and Dec were above normal you see the overall trend for snow cover those years to remain elevated, at least through Dec, to Jan. I do not see a year in the mix there that has experienced such a drastic decline after such a robust start, except maybe one. Also, you will see ups and downs so a year that declined a couple months later rebounds again above the average. This decline may simply be associated with the pattern leading to the SSWE, I do not think it is a main concern. I bet we rebound later. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 @frd that look right there is about as good as it gets. It'll be busy in here in January and February with that blocking, -PNA, and lower heights along the EC (and low heights in the 50/50 region). Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 If we have to punt a winter month around here then December is the month worth punting. I hate having to punt Jan or Feb because those are the months we can score even without the greatest pattern. So time to enjoy a few warm days and the Holidays because i think the post Christmas medium to long range is going to be when the tracking game gets fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 56 minutes ago, BristowWx said: When it comes to rain, warmth, bad patterns the models seem to be deadly accurate at long range. I wouldn’t expect wholesale change. There is a much larger error foregiveness to that. A storm can track to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Chicago, or Green Bay and we are rain in all those scenarios. But a storm has to track pretty much between richmond to the outer banks for us to get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, nj2va said: @frd that look right there is about as good as it gets. It'll be busy in here in January and February with that blocking, -PNA, and lower heights along the EC (and low heights in the 50/50 region). Game on. We really go through this every year, and some years are worse than others, but it has beem warm and snowless countless winters up to this point and things still turned around and many times the weather took on extremes of cold and snow. Even in the pre climate change era, winters started off slow at times only to go colder and snowier after various dates, sometimes near Jan 3, other times Jan 15 th and others near the 20 th of Jan. Just because it snowed in Dec 02 and Dec 09 and it did not snow this year in December so far, does not lessen what is on the table next month, and in Feb and even March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 It did snow. Just to the south of us. Did snow go south at all those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 We really go through this every year, and some years are worse than others, but it has beem warm and snowless countless winters up to this point and things still turned around and many times the weather took on extremes of cold and snow. Even in the pre climate change era, winters started off slow at times only to go colder and snowier after various dates, sometimes near Jan 3, other times Jan 15 th and others near the 20 th of Jan. Just because it snowed in Dec 02 and Dec 09 and it did not snow this year in December so far, does not lessen what is on the table next month, and in Feb and even March. And March has now become a legit winter storm month, as of late.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, frd said: We really go through this every year, and some years are worse than others, but it has beem warm and snowless countless winters up to this point and things still turned around and many times the weather took on extremes of cold and snow. Even in the pre climate change era, winters started off slow at times only to go colder and snowier after various dates, sometimes near Jan 3, other times Jan 15 th and others near the 20 th of Jan. Just because it snowed in Dec 02 and Dec 09 and it did not snow this year in December so far, does not lessen what is on the table next month, and in Feb and even March. Anyone writing off the winter at this juncture (hi EJ) is just being silly. The MJO has temporarily screwed things up a bit, but even without that there were mixed signals for Dec. The Nino was a late developer, and NA blocking is favored during the back half of winter during a Nino regardless. I would be surprised if we don't have a generally favorable pattern for mid Jan through early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is a much larger error foregiveness to that. A storm can track to Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Chicago, or Green Bay and we are rain in all those scenarios. But a storm has to track pretty much between richmond to the outer banks for us to get snow. Or a clipper. Or over running. Both I also enjoy. I wish I liked cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, Superstorm said: nd March has now become a legit winter storm month, as of late. Seems just as Summer holds deep into the fall these days, to balance by chance winter has held its grip during the month of March a lot these past years, was not like that 15 to 20 years ago I think. A few years out of the past 5 or so, the DE. cherry blossoms were very, very late. Sometimes a few early blooms from 70 in Feb and then bam 15 degrees in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2018 Share Posted December 17, 2018 EPS at the very end is showing what will be step 1 in a progression towards what we want. Get the trough west to the Aleutians. Once that happens the pna and epo will become more favorable. The ridging builds across to the nao side eventually and that's when things can really go nuts. It might be rushing it a bit. I'm sticking with my call we see signs by early Jan and the pattern gets good after Jan 15. For @Maestrobjwa sake hopefully it won't be like 1969 when we had an awesome h5 look much of the second half of winter but had close miss after close miss and ended up with only mediocre results. 1968 had a snow mid November too and it was a modoki nino so uh oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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