ineedsnow Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Ping ping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Actually sleeting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Tough to believe the Nam although the 06z Euro bumped qpf a little up here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 The 06z NAM may be a little pricey with QPF but it does bring up over 1.0" liq equiv to Logan ending Monday morning. I haven't looked at any specific sounding products that are based on the NAM inputs, but just examining the triangulum between BOS-LGA-ALB suggests that there is a snow profile ~ mid latitude of said region going N ... and observing p-type rad products that seems to be more or less setting up with early event behavior. I was impressed ...as far as one could be for this "disrespected system" in the 00z Euro. It shows a quintessential 500 mb track ... taking a quasi-closed surface from just east of the Del Marva passing E of Cape Cod early tomorrow. That is actually a climo -favored track for frontogen/banding along the N/NW arc, and given to the "TROWAL" like look ... these free open-ware web products sort of give at least a conceptual nod to the NAM having a .6"+ single interval on the FRH grid (Logan). Both the NAM and the Euro suggest marginal atmosphere is modulating down, not up ...while that is occurring. Putting an accurate reputation together with an inaccurate reputation may be a risky blend (or not...) but, these subtleties/relationships are not altogether intuitively unsound. That's the models... Presently, Wunder' layout has 31 to 34 T over DPs averaging 28 F along Rt 2 .. and there is on average a bit of a drain component to the zephyrs being indicated. Temps and DPs in central NE are only colder. Not sure of the NAM's totals but if even 3/4's of that falls west of the city out through the Worcester Hills through these conditions that's ~ 6" of snow. Not sure what the Euro QPF is/was... Worth of discussion in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 It’s goinf to depend on getting a good and hefty band of deep layer lift. NAM suggests this and flashes the interior over esp north of 90. If it’s just showery stuff then forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 12z NAM/grid numbers even more impressive... BOS//754439 -2119 220716 48059904 LGA//968032 09204 170518 49030004 06000787318 05714 170720 47050101 06031978736 06401 120518 47020004 12030989353 12913 130619 47029802 12028989336 11206 090117 44010000 18101978347 -7409 050227 45000100 18022967436 01611 073416 44010098 24015978547 -6012 033418 43000099 That's approching 1.5" of QPF now for Logan... The temperature profile looks colder overall during the VV/QPF intervals... but the first .3" appears to be noodles and sleet mixed... That 2nd interval though...up over an inch in what essentially amounts to an isothermal 0C profile from 980 to 800 mbs ...(and I checked and there's no elevated warm layer) ... the only thing stopping that from being a significant snow storm ...other than it being the NAM that is... (ha!) would have to come down to nuances in the growth region of the soundings... but I don't believe that would be the case with the structural evolution of this thing. It's even got LGA with a half inch in an isothermal snow profile there on the right. Could all be the NAM being the NAM but again...the 00z Euro looked NAM like so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Here is what 12z Nam had for qpf, Whether its right or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Nammy whammy bammy . We’ll see . This includes sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Pinging here. 42. Just started. Very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 6 Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Snow/Sleet has started here in Barre, MA. 34.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, dryslot said: Here is what 12z Nam had for qpf, Whether its right or not Lovely. 39* between showers in Marion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 4 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Ray--are you giving the low about to western mass as more of this being IP than SN? Good luck with this--tough one for sure on. The system is a late bloomer.. obviously precip type issues to start, but there should be less precip out west, too. It's not a matter of whiffing...root for a faster more robust development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 We ping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Just had a band of some pretty heavy sleet move through. 32.7F/31F. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Don't have a temp here, but pingers mixed in at the Chestnut Hill Mall in Newton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 This band has some massive chunks of sleet with mangled flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: This band has some massive chunks of sleet with mangled flakes. Stay safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 Probably a bit tedious for some to dissect the anatomy of this one buuut... The "main event" is overnight.. fwiw - The mid-level features are presently centered near PHL of NW Maryland ... As they trundle ENE and S of LI .. there may be some fill ins of reflectivity and if one of Scott's more important bands get going it will probably then, when those 500 and 700 mb surface are passing just to our S and concomitant cyclogen gets more cohesive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 We drizzle...drippy drippy drippy and 41 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 I looked around ... I couldn't find a thread re this guy - if anyone wants to merge by all means. sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I looked around ... I couldn't find a thread re this guy - if anyone wants to merge by all means. sorry Yours can be the obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Yours can be the obs thread sure ...whatever works... I was more at thinking this is a now-cast op event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The system is a late bloomer.. obviously precip type issues to start, but there should be less precip out west, too. It's not a matter of whiffing...root for a faster more robust development. Thanks. Always hoping for sooner out this way. 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: We snow Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 34F Sky getting that "snow" look up here. 4-5" of cement is on the ground. Getting pretty dirty looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What happened to the obs thread? I merged them. Let's just keep it all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: I merged them. Let's just keep it all together. Not exactly obs thread worthy per these: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 16, 2018 Share Posted December 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: I merged them. Let's just keep it all together. Edit the title to include obs please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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