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Sneaky Wintry Event 12/16-17 disco/obs


NorEastermass128

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The 06z NAM may be a little pricey with QPF but it does bring up over 1.0" liq equiv to Logan ending Monday morning.  I haven't looked at any specific sounding products that are based on the NAM inputs, but just examining the triangulum between BOS-LGA-ALB suggests that there is a snow profile ~ mid latitude of said region going N ... and observing p-type rad products that seems to be more or less setting up with early event behavior.

I was impressed ...as far as one could be for this "disrespected system" in the 00z Euro. It shows a quintessential 500 mb track ... taking a quasi-closed surface from just east of the Del Marva passing E of Cape Cod early tomorrow.  That is actually a climo -favored track for frontogen/banding along the N/NW arc, and given to the "TROWAL" like look ... these free open-ware web products sort of give at least a conceptual nod to the NAM having a .6"+ single interval on the FRH grid (Logan). Both the NAM and the Euro suggest marginal atmosphere is modulating down, not up ...while that is occurring. 

Putting an accurate reputation together with an inaccurate reputation may be a risky blend (or not...) but, these subtleties/relationships are not altogether intuitively unsound.

That's the models...

Presently, Wunder' layout has 31 to 34 T over DPs averaging 28 F along Rt 2 .. and there is on average a bit of a drain component to the zephyrs being indicated.  Temps and DPs in central NE are only colder.

Not sure of the NAM's totals but if even 3/4's of that falls west of the city out through the Worcester Hills through these conditions that's ~ 6" of snow. Not sure what the Euro QPF is/was... Worth of discussion in my mind.

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12z NAM/grid numbers even more impressive...

BOS//754439 -2119 220716 48059904   LGA//968032 09204 170518 49030004
06000787318 05714 170720 47050101   06031978736 06401 120518 47020004
12030989353 12913 130619 47029802   12028989336 11206 090117 44010000
18101978347 -7409 050227 45000100   18022967436 01611 073416 44010098
24015978547 -6012 033418 43000099

That's approching 1.5" of QPF now for Logan... The temperature profile looks colder overall during the VV/QPF intervals... but the first .3" appears to be noodles and sleet mixed... That 2nd interval though...up over an inch in what essentially amounts to an isothermal 0C profile from 980 to 800 mbs ...(and I checked and there's no elevated warm layer) ... the only thing stopping that from being a significant snow storm ...other than it being the NAM that is... (ha!) would have to come down to nuances in the growth region of the soundings... but I don't believe that would be the case with the structural evolution of this thing. 

It's even got LGA with a half inch in an isothermal snow profile there on the right.

Could all be the NAM being the NAM but again...the 00z Euro looked NAM like so we'll see...

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4 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Ray--are you giving the low about to western mass as more of this being IP than SN?  Good luck with this--tough one for sure on.

The system is a late bloomer..  obviously precip type issues to start, but there should be less precip out west, too. It's not a matter of whiffing...root for a faster more robust development.

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Probably a bit tedious for some to dissect the anatomy of this one buuut...

The "main event" is overnight.. fwiw -

The mid-level features are presently centered near PHL of NW Maryland ... As they trundle ENE and S of LI .. there may be some fill ins of reflectivity and if one of Scott's more important bands get going it will probably then, when those 500 and 700 mb surface are passing just to our S and concomitant cyclogen gets more cohesive.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The system is a late bloomer..  obviously precip type issues to start, but there should be less precip out west, too. It's not a matter of whiffing...root for a faster more robust development.

Thanks.  Always hoping for sooner out this way.

41 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We snow

image.thumb.png.642f00edd36c1faf9995429714f0bfb6.png

Nice.

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