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Sneaky Wintry Event 12/16-17 disco/obs


NorEastermass128

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Mm...

my immediate impression is that the models that upped the QPF will be right  ... but this system is just got a warm layer (whether surface or intervening aloft) that was not as well handled by the colder ones.

So,...  cold rain wins for the larger chunk of the area.

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...

my immediate impression is that the models that upped the QPF will be right  ... but this system is just got a warm layer (whether surface or intervening aloft) that was not as well handled by the colder ones.

So,...  cold rain wins for the larger chunk of the area.

Yea, what a miserable December.

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...

my immediate impression is that the models that upped the QPF will be right  ... but this system is just got a warm layer (whether surface or intervening aloft) that was not as well handled by the colder ones.

So,...  cold rain wins for the larger chunk of the area.

If the NAM profile comes close to verifying you should start flipping down there around 3z.

Date: 6 hour NAM valid 0Z MON 17 DEC 18
Station: KFIT
Latitude:   42.55
Longitude: -71.76
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1000    93   2.0                       34  10 275.2                        
  1  950   505  -0.3  -0.6  98  0.3  -0.4  49  32 276.9 277.6 275.3 287.5  3.86
  2  900   937  -1.8  -6.1  73  4.3  -3.4  72  38 279.6 280.1 275.2 287.2  2.69
  3  850  1394   2.4   1.5  93  1.0   2.0  98  35 288.7 289.6 282.6 303.0  5.00
  4  800  1888   4.0   3.6  97  0.4   3.8 128  31 295.4 296.5 286.6 313.5  6.21
  5  750  2411   2.0   1.3  95  0.7   1.7 132  20 298.8 299.8 287.2 315.5  5.62
  6  700  2965  -1.6  -2.1  96  0.5  -1.8 126  15 300.8 301.6 287.1 314.9  4.70

 

Date: 9 hour NAM valid 3Z MON 17 DEC 18
Station: KFIT
Latitude:   42.55
Longitude: -71.76
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1000    84   1.2                        9   7 274.3                        
  1  950   495  -0.5  -0.7  98  0.3  -0.6  42  25 276.7 277.4 275.2 287.2  3.81
  2  900   927  -1.3  -1.7  97  0.4  -1.5  76  31 280.2 280.8 276.9 290.6  3.74
  3  850  1382  -1.9  -2.8  94  0.8  -2.3  98  33 284.1 284.7 278.9 294.5  3.67
  4  800  1866   0.3  -0.0  98  0.3   0.1 106  31 291.4 292.3 283.5 305.2  4.77
  5  750  2384  -1.1  -1.5  97  0.4  -1.3 107  26 295.4 296.2 284.9 308.9  4.58
  6  700  2932  -3.3  -3.7  97  0.4  -3.5 117  30 298.8 299.6 285.8 311.3  4.15

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm...

my immediate impression is that the models that upped the QPF will be right  ... but this system is just got a warm layer (whether surface or intervening aloft) that was not as well handled by the colder ones.

So,...  cold rain wins for the larger chunk of the area.

We'll that suks, 34F, .26" pouring, agreed , lets move on..........

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

 Snow amounts on winderground for Boscawen and have gone from 3 inches earlier to 4 inches a couple of hours ago to 5 inches now.  I wonder what model they use

Here you go

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM Update...
Band of intense precipitation is not moving onshore in southern
NH and will eventually lift into coastal Maine tonight. Water
vapor imagery shows a large area of cooling cloud tops moving
into southern New Hampshire. The band of frontogenetically
forced precipitation is moving quickly and have opted to move
the advisory time up for southeastern NH and southern Maine to
10 PM as opposed to midnight. By then accumulations will have
already started.

Dew points in the mid to upper 20s leave room for wet bulb
cooling, and although many spots may start out as rain they
will change to a wintry mix or snow. Merrimack and Belknap were
also added to the advisory. After retooling the PoPs and
snowfall amounts to match a blend of the latest HRRR/RAP13/
NamNest...more than half of these counties may receive 3" of
snow with a trace of ice.
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