Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Definitely. We've had this new trend of slow starts to winter with lasting cold into Spring. Not many things worse than cold and rainy weather in April. At least last year we had an April snowstorm in the first week of the month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 hours ago, Juliancolton said: The coast will probably still get a blizzard at some point this winter. It's tradition. like winter 2015-16 when real winter only lasted for the amount of time that snowstorm lasted lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 16 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Agreed. Only problem for me is that over time I've come to much prefer a snowy meterological winter, followed by warmth in March/April (what we used to call springlike weather but what I think is better defined as mid springlike weather), over these winters that get a late start and make for miserably chilly March/Aprils. Like most snow fans I'm always looking ahead, and a snowfall that sticks around during a post storm cold snap is the best. 93/94 was awesome for that, and even though 95/96 had its multiple warmups, that storm that hit a few days before Christmas and stuck around in the crisp cold for a week was great. It's not the same when it falls in March/April. Those are just as fun when they're happening, but they're a grey muddy sloppy mess 6 hours later. I suppose the last ~15 years have spoiled me. In the 80s I'd have taken any snowfall deep enough to cover the grass whenever I could get it. Yeah theres a reason winters like 47-48 and 10-11 were our deepest snowcover winters. To get true winter conditions like that for an extended period you typically need snowstorms to start happening around here beginning in late December (at the latest.) 2014-15 was an exception to that- but remember how truly exceptional that was- it wasn't even the snow that was historic for our area it was the -10 departure in February that made whatever snow fell, stay on the ground right through Mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 If winter fails it is going to be interesting listening to a certain meteorologist explain why his 200% above normal snowfall prediction for the mid-atlantic/northeast didn't work out. Although he won't be the only one doing some explaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 13 hours ago, bluewave said: We were a mini tornado alley this year. Good thing these are typically lower end events here. https://mobile.twitter.com/splillo/status/1080178107515047944 they kind of missed us here in western Long Island. 1998 was our best severe wx year that I can remember, 2010 was up there too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 19 hours ago, NJwx85 said: All I can say is remember March 2018 We all thought Winter was over last February when temperatures soared into the 70's and the entire period was well above normal with little snowfall. Then we hit March and suddenly the pattern locked in and we got hit four times in one month. I know the weenies want cold and snow from December to April but it's just not realistic. This isn't Green Bay. Around here it was basically one event in March and one event in April. It's why for urban areas the snow season usually shuts down at the end of February. That late March event and the April event were really good though, but by far the best snowstorm that season happened in early January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 14 hours ago, Cfa said: One of these years the Pac Jet will get so strong planes will be arriving before they depart...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Don't worry folks between mid March and mid April we will probably have a bunch of rainy nor'easters that drop 6" of rain each with winds gusting to 60 mph. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino. That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wise and colder than normal. ****ing mjo is screwing the pattern. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino. That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wide and colder thab normal. ****ing mjo is screwing the pattern. Aren’t you one of “those people?” Haven’t you been preaching patience? Its not over yet 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Aren’t you one of “those people?” Haven’t you been preaching patience? Its not over yet Losing it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Losing it Don’t. As much as I want winters to be snowless and warm, I do still recognize that out perception of this winter can change with one or two big storms, and also get us to seasonal averages. I hope winter is tame but it is still only January 3rd. Lots can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 At this time last year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 So much water and mud in the woods...looks more like late March and April...Need a nice cold wave to freeze everything up. Rain has been relentless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: At this time last year https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_North_American_blizzard Very underrated and our best storm last year and probably since the Jan 2016 blizzard. Six straight hours of zero visibility during the day here and blizzard conditions! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Very underrated and our best storm last year and probably since the Jan 2016 blizzard. Six straight hours of zero visibility during the day here and blizzard conditions! 12 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I remember people were excited about this winter because of a weak EL Nino. That's why everyone went above normal snowfall wise and colder than normal. ****ing mjo is screwing the pattern. temp forecasts for January are in big trouble, it will be difficult to erase the warmth of the first 15 days...December finished +2 to +3 depending on locale as well, much warmer than the consensus.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 On January 6 2018 , the temperature was 13 degrees. On January 6 2019, the temperature will be 48 degrees. Smfh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: On January 6 2018 , the temperature was 13 degrees. On January 6 2019, the temperature will be 48 degrees. Smfh A wetter version of '11-'12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: A wetter version of '11-'12.... That was a la niña winter Not the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: That was a la niña winter Not the same the sensible weather is the same so far, warm and snowless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: Aren’t you one of “those people?” Haven’t you been preaching patience? Its not over yet I am still waiting for his December 30 -31 snow event……... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: On January 6 2018 , the temperature was 13 degrees. On January 6 2019, the temperature will be 48 degrees. Smfh 48 is much closer to normal (40) than 13. Some winters don’t even get as cold as 13 for a low, last year’s cold was out of this world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 minute ago, Cfa said: 48 is much closer to normal (40) than 13. Some winters don’t even get as cold as 13 for a low, last year’s cold was out of this world. rather have 48 then 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I am still waiting for his December 30 -31 snow event……... next 2 look like rainers too....warm begets warm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the sensible weather is the same so far, warm and snowless... lets forget ENSO for a second and lets just talk about years where we have had similar results up to now (up to now being the key point.) 1989-90 1997-98 2001-02 2011-12 2012-13 Taking out 2 and 3 early only because we didn't get the big early season snowstorm those seasons. Granted even the three that remain aren't great matches (well 1989-90 isn't because of how dry and cold that December was.) Overall, I think 2012-13 seems to be the best match so far and is the best compromise between the cold/snowy back end winters many are predicting and the mild snowless ones. So I'll go with that one for now. 2011-12 comes in second which isn't a comforting thought but we should keep that one in the back of our minds for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: lets forget ENSO for a second and lets just talk about years where we have had similar results up to now (up to now being the key point.) 1989-90 1997-98 2001-02 2011-12 2012-13 Taking out 2 and 3 early only because we didn't get the big early season snowstorm those seasons. Granted even the three that remain aren't great matches (well 1989-90 isn't because of how dry and cold that December was.) Overall, I think 2012-13 seems to be the best match so far and is the best compromise between the cold/snowy back end winters many are predicting and the mild snowless ones. So I'll go with that one for now. 2011-12 comes in second which isn't a comforting thought but we should keep that one in the back of our minds for now. Eastern weenies would like a 12-13 redux.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Eastern weenies would like a 12-13 redux.... Yeah, I see the primary SNE analogs being used are 2004-05 and 2014-15, but 2012-13 might be the best compromise that includes the backloaded winter predictions without going overboard with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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