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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

500 low and surface low aligned. So all you had to do was be on the left side of the storm track. Also excellent cold air entrainment with the CCB. And a really sharp cutoff to the SW. we had a dusting in Baltimore, and it’s not that far from philly. 

I wish every storm was like that we'd have a lot more snow lol.  I feel bad for Philly and Baltimore though- there's always a sharp cut off to the west but this one had a really narrow area of heavy snow.  It's like that in typical la nina snowstorms isn't it?  I remember Boxing Day was like that too and so was that notorious virga snowstorm of Feb 1989 that was supposed to give us 6-8" and all we got was virga and overcast skies while Atlantic City got 19"  Philly got screwed in that one too!

Of course every rule has an exception and Jan 1996 broke every rule in terms of la nina snowstorms lol.

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20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That was one of those storms where the airmass was so marginal the urban heat island killed accumulations. 

Yeah I remember watching the Yankees home opener and it seemed to be snowing pretty hard in The Bronx but they kept the game going even though you could see snow accumulating on the players' caps lol.  Out here on Long Island we did a lot better- even JFK did a lot better.  The urban heat island was so bad that it even killed the city's accumulations at night while we kept accumulating all night.  That would have been an epic snowstorm in the middle of January.

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5 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

93-94. Not as much total snow as 96, but plenty of storms. And a couple of rare ice events to boot, and a massive sleet event in March. Plus the two mini blizzards in Feb. And I did all this with a stinkin shovel...

One of those mini blizzards had massive thundersnow during the day- I think thats the first time I can actually remember seeing lightning along with snow falling.  The rates were tremendous during the day, a rare treat!  All the storms that winter ended up delivering more snow and ice than originally forecast even though most of them did later mix or change over.

The city ran out of salt that year.  The rare combo of snow, ice and cold made it actually seem more harsh than 1995-96.

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Just now, jfklganyc said:

When can we stick a fork in calling it a “good winter?”

Meaning, if on 1/20 we get 6 weeks of snow and cold...is it still a “good winter?”

At some point we have to acknowledge that whatever happens past 1/15, a good chunk of winter was garbage, no?

 

I agree with this in theory, but wouldn’t we have to wait to see what March brings?  If March is cold and wet/snowy, we can still get 8-10 weeks of winter—which would be awful

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Just now, jfklganyc said:

When can we stick a fork in calling it a “good winter?”

Meaning, if on 1/20 we get 6 weeks of snow and cold...is it still a “good winter?”

At some point we have to acknowledge that whatever happens past 1/15, a good chunk of winter was garbage, no?

 

No doubt.  We can rack up decent totals after 1/15, but no matter the totals it would be difficult to recall this as a good winter.   

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what a difference a year makes...last year we were in the grip of an arctic outbreak and a storm was on the horizon...this year is the opposite...the temps are close to record highs today...1966, 1919, 1973 were all el nino years...2005 too...4 of the five warmest New Years day came during an el nino...two more el nino years show up in the record high minimums...the last time the city had a very cold New Years day and the next year was warm was 100 years ago...

NYC's almanac for Jan. 1.
Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation.....snowfall.....est. max snow depth...
62 in 1966.....10 in 1918.....52 in 1966......-4 in 1918.....2.05" in 1888.....9.0" in 1869..........15" in 1948
61 in 1919.....16 in 1881.....50 in 1979.......1 in 1881.....1.68" in 1923.....6.4" in 1971..........12" in 2011
60 in 1973.....18 in 1899.....45 in 1973.......7 in 2018.....1.52" in 2003.....5.0" in 1877..........12" in 1873
60 in 1979.....19 in 2018.....45 in 2007.......7 in 1875.....1.52" in 2007.....4.0" in 1947..........11" in 2001
60 in 2005.....20 in 1900.....44 in 1952.......8 in 1899.....1.32" in 1893.....3.0" in 1899............9" in 1869

Philadelphia 1/1

Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. precipitation.....snowfall........

64 in 2005.....16 in 1918.....48 in 1966.......4 in 1881.....1.60" in 1948.....5.3" in 1971

62 in 1973.....19 in 1899.....45 in 1979.......5 in 1918.....1.58" in 1888.....3.5" in 1899

61 in 1979+...21 in 1881.....44 in 2007+.....7 in 1899.....1.44" in 2007.....2.5" in 1876

+ also in earlier years...

 

1869...snowstorm...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-8/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030313/1869-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/

1873...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1873-01-02/ed-1/seq-5/

1888...

http://nyshistoricnewspapers.org/lccn/sn83030193/1888-01-02/ed-1/seq-2/

1899...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1899-01-02/ed-1/seq-4/

1949 from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52872109/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52872138

1948...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52810758/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52810762

1947...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52675774/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52675793

 

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

One of those mini blizzards had massive thundersnow during the day- I think thats the first time I can actually remember seeing lightning along with snow falling.  The rates were tremendous during the day, a rare treat!  All the storms that winter ended up delivering more snow and ice than originally forecast even though most of them did later mix or change over.

The city ran out of salt that year.  The rare combo of snow, ice and cold made it actually seem more harsh than 1995-96.

You couldn't even buy table salt around here for a week or so. No sand, no kitty litter, nothin. And Home Depot was not on every corner yet. God I miss those kinda winters...

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22 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

When can we stick a fork in calling it a “good winter?”

Meaning, if on 1/20 we get 6 weeks of snow and cold...is it still a “good winter?”

At some point we have to acknowledge that whatever happens past 1/15, a good chunk of winter was garbage, no?

 

the odds of a "great winter"  (think-93-94, 95-96) are shrinking each passing day....still a shot at a 12-13 or 14-15 type winter which had alot of action late...

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11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the odds of a "great winter"  (think-93-94, 95-96) are shrinking each passing day....still a shot at a 12-13 or 14-15 type winter which had alot of action late...

People were hoping for something like 02-03 but the lack of activity in December ruined that.  But remember what that winter did February-April, hope for that.

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All I can say is remember March 2018 :rolleyes:

We all thought Winter was over last February when temperatures soared into the 70's and the entire period was well above normal with little snowfall.

Then we hit March and suddenly the pattern locked in and we got hit four times in one month. 

I know the weenies want cold and snow from December to April but it's just not realistic. This isn't Green Bay.

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Agreed.  Only problem for me is that over time I've come to much prefer a snowy meterological winter, followed by warmth in March/April (what we used to call springlike weather but what I think is better defined as mid springlike weather), over these winters that get a late start and make for miserably chilly March/Aprils.   Like most snow fans I'm always looking ahead, and a snowfall that sticks around during a post storm cold snap is the best.  93/94 was awesome for that, and even though 95/96 had its multiple warmups, that storm that hit a few days before Christmas and stuck around in the crisp cold for a week was great.  It's not the same when it falls in March/April.  Those are just as fun when they're happening, but they're a grey muddy sloppy mess 6 hours later.  I suppose the last ~15 years have spoiled me.   In the 80s I'd have taken any snowfall deep enough to cover the grass whenever I could get it.

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

All I can say is remember March 2018 :rolleyes:

We all thought Winter was over last February when temperatures soared into the 70's and the entire period was well above normal with little snowfall.

Then we hit March and suddenly the pattern locked in and we got hit four times in one month. 

I know the weenies want cold and snow from December to April but it's just not realistic. This isn't Green Bay.

Excellent post.  

 

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5 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

All I can say is remember March 2018 :rolleyes:

We all thought Winter was over last February when temperatures soared into the 70's and the entire period was well above normal with little snowfall.

Then we hit March and suddenly the pattern locked in and we got hit four times in one month. 

I know the weenies want cold and snow from December to April but it's just not realistic. This isn't Green Bay.

A few weeks ago we were saying wait until early Jan. Then it became mid-January. Now some are saying forget January and focus on Feb. We have our first "March" post and it's January 2. This is bad.

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9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

A few weeks ago we were saying wait until early Jan. Then it became mid-January. Now some are saying forget January and focus on Feb. We have our first "March" post and it's January 2. This is bad.

If you think this is bad, then you haven't been around long enough.

This is what happens when you don't have blocking. It's always a thread the needle type deal. We could very well get lucky and squeeze out a storm or two in this pattern if things break right. The panic though is just ridiculous. 

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15 minutes ago, Cfa said:

What I don’t want is a cold/snowy early spring. We’ve seen enough of those.

Definitely.  We've had this new trend of slow starts to winter with lasting cold into Spring.  Not many things worse than cold and rainy weather in April.

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