bluewave Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I totally forgot you moved out of LB, I was thinking what!?!? There is absolutely nothing left on the south shore The dividing line between New England and the Midatlantic was the LIE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 4 hours ago, NycStormChaser said: Now that my truck is total Swiss cheese from the baseballs last May, no reason to be reserved this season. Just punching cores left and right with reckless abandon. Bring it! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Now that my truck is total Swiss cheese from the baseballs last May, no reason to be reserved this season. Just punching cores left and right with reckless abandon. Bring it! Damn, that sucks. Are you going out to the plains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I totally forgot you moved out of LB, I was thinking what!?!? There is absolutely nothing left on the south shore Yup. Moved closer to my job in Melville and the extra snow helps... In just the 10 minute drive from my apartment to Melville you can tell the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 28 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yup. Moved closer to my job in Melville and the extra snow helps... In just the 10 minute drive from my apartment to Melville you can tell the difference. Now we don’t have anyone to give weather observations from Long Beach. It looks like they built the new dunes too low to survive any future hurricanes. The ones down in Lido that survived Sandy were the better height and width. But they were probably thinking more about views and access than major surge protection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Now we don’t have anyone to give weather observations from Long Beach. It looks like they built the new dunes too low to survive any future hurricanes. The ones down in Lido that survived Sandy were the better height and width. But they were probably thinking more about views and access than major surge protection. Wow. Can’t beleive we don’t have anyone left in Long Beach. I haven’t seen the new dunes first hand but from that picture they really don’t look too high or wide. Hopefully the widening of the overall beach will help. Otherwise I could see that dune being breached during big storms and water getting stuck between the dune and the boardwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 17 minutes ago, tdp146 said: Wow. Can’t beleive we don’t have anyone left in Long Beach. I haven’t seen the new dunes first hand but from that picture they really don’t look too high or wide. Hopefully the widening of the overall beach will help. Otherwise I could see that dune being breached during big storms and water getting stuck between the dune and the boardwalk. Those dunes are similar in height and width to the ones that got flattened by Sandy in the West End and East End. The high sections of the Lido Dunes held up much better. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/science/earth/after-hurricane-sandy-dunes-prove-they-blunt-storms.html The smaller neighboring communities on the barrier island — Point Lookout, Lido Beach and Atlantic Beach — approved construction of 15-foot-high dunes as storm insurance. Those dunes did their job, sparing them catastrophic damage while Long Beach suffered at least $200 million in property and infrastructure losses, according to preliminary estimates. Joe Vietri, director of coastal and storm risk management for the corps, toured the damaged coastlines after the 12-to-14-foot storm surge of Hurricane Sandy and came to an inescapable conclusion. “The difference was dramatic for areas with vital and healthy dune systems, which did better than those that did not,” he said in a telephone interview. “You can see the evidence on Point Lookout and Lido Beach, which did much better than Long Beach.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2019 Share Posted March 8, 2019 1 hour ago, tdp146 said: Wow. Can’t beleive we don’t have anyone left in Long Beach. I haven’t seen the new dunes first hand but from that picture they really don’t look too high or wide. Hopefully the widening of the overall beach will help. Otherwise I could see that dune being breached during big storms and water getting stuck between the dune and the boardwalk. Much as I love winter, seeing the water has got me itching to get out fishing, even though fishing sucks anymore. Well, we always have porgies. I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 3 hours ago, tdp146 said: Wow. Can’t beleive we don’t have anyone left in Long Beach. I haven’t seen the new dunes first hand but from that picture they really don’t look too high or wide. Hopefully the widening of the overall beach will help. Otherwise I could see that dune being breached during big storms and water getting stuck between the dune and the boardwalk. I’m still there pretty frequently. I’ll be there tomorrow actually. Haven’t seen the new dunes really, I’ll have to check them out. Last I really saw of them they were still under construction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 I haven't been to Long Beach since I left Far Rockaway a little over a year ago. Used to commute via the barrier islands instead of the disgustingly crowded Southern State or Sunrise Highway. I liked the winter climo down there better than here, but the almost-daily sea breezes in the summer made me sick, not a factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 A lot of the pilots that had houses in Long Beach are selling them off. The mandated raising of houses for insurance and the ridiculous expense and time to do it are turning people off. You’re best if you are a newcomer and could go and buy a raised house...but you pay a premium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: A lot of the pilots that had houses in Long Beach are selling them off. The mandated raising of houses for insurance and the ridiculous expense and time to do it are turning people off. You’re best if you are a newcomer and could go and buy a raised house...but you pay a premium Many people got priced out of Long Beach following Sandy. The pilots generally lived around the West End which is closer to JFK. Unfortunately, the West End is one of the the lowest parts of Long Beach. So it suffered some of the worst flood damage. West End during Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 9, 2019 Share Posted March 9, 2019 On 3/8/2019 at 2:22 PM, NycStormChaser said: Damn, that sucks. Are you going out to the plains? I've been thinking about it, but no plans at present. I'd prefer to do the Plains in a year when I can carve out a couple weeks to increase the odds of some good opportunities. You can always get lucky choosing a 4-5 day period during peak season, but just as likely to get skunked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 3 hours ago, Juliancolton said: I've been thinking about it, but no plans at present. I'd prefer to do the Plains in a year when I can carve out a couple weeks to increase the odds of some good opportunities. You can always get lucky choosing a 4-5 day period during peak season, but just as likely to get skunked. Yeah last year was horrible. I went for a week in May and got nothing. Of course the week before and after that produced. I almost went down today but I'm not comfortable chasing alone in dixie alley. My chaser partners were busy. The Northeast actually did well last season considering where we are. My favorite day was Pennsylvania with 13 tornadoes in one day. TOR warnings were poping up left and right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 10, 2019 Share Posted March 10, 2019 On 3/8/2019 at 8:34 PM, jm1220 said: I’m still there pretty frequently. I’ll be there tomorrow actually. Haven’t seen the new dunes really, I’ll have to check them out. Last I really saw of them they were still under construction. Had dinner in LB tonight with some friends and then took a look at the beach. The dune is not really that high, but the depth of the beach itself was really expanded out into the ocean. It’s more like jones beach now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/5/2019 at 7:14 AM, ILoveWinter said: Haha true. But whatever the max possible temp NYC can reach pales to several other cities. I spent some time in Persian Gulf (Dubai and Doha) in summer and I can tell you that the heat was incredible. 115 easily and some days with excessive humidity (espec in Dubai though I think the world record heat index of 178 was at Dhahran Saudi Arabia with 108 at 95%). It was downright dangerous to be active outside for more than 10 mins - I of course was intrigued by all of it and did force myself to walk around just for the experience. So hot that I had to cover my cheeks with my hands due to the burn. I keep track of things like that, I think there are towns over there that probably get hotter than Death Valley. And the dew points are literally through the roof! I can't wait until we get our first confirmed recording of 130 degree heat, a few towns have come tantalizingly close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/5/2019 at 9:14 AM, bluewave said: Newark is the 95 degree day leader of the Northeast. But my part of Long Island near the South Shore has fewer 95 degree or warmer days than POU. For areas north of 40N in the US you have to get out into the Plains to see more 95 degree or warmer days than Newark. 95 degree or warmer days since 2014 POU...11 ALB....9 BTV....9 BOS...19 HFD....23 ISP.....3 JFK....5 LGA....24 EWR...41 Thats why I like JFK, we can still get 100 degree heat on SW winds in the summer lol. Summer 2010 was amazing for heat. Summers have been puny and boring since 2014 in terms of heat. JFK had 100+ heat three out of four summers between 2010 and 2013. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/5/2019 at 9:23 AM, gravitylover said: Growing up on the south shore, Oceanside, I don't remember many 95+ days at all. Where is the thermometer placed in Newark? Surrounded by asphalt, open to the SSW...? You want to know where 95 feels unbearable, try Alaska. Anything over ~80 feels oppressive and when it gets into the 90's your skin fries in minutes. You should have been here in the summer of 2010, JFK had 11 days of 95+ and 32 days of 90+ and 3 days over 100. We are usually a few degrees hotter than JFK because JFK is right on the bay and we're about 2 miles north of the water. That was my favorite summer. lots of heat, not much humidity. The heat got started early with the first 90+ in the first week of April! Earliest ever! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 On 3/5/2019 at 11:07 AM, weatherpruf said: Keep it around 70. Perfect. Anything over 75 gets uncomfortable, and at 100 I am not leaving the house. And I don't. It's really the humidity that makes it feel bad, 100 degrees with like 20 percent humidity actually feels refreshing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: You should have been here in the summer of 2010, JFK had 11 days of 95+ and 32 days of 90+ and 3 days over 100. We are usually a few degrees hotter than JFK because JFK is right on the bay and we're about 2 miles north of the water. That was my favorite summer. lots of heat, not much humidity. The heat got started early with the first 90+ in the first week of April! Earliest ever! I remember that summer well. True we haven’t had one close to that since on LI. Last year all the summer storms Went west, along with the humidity. It wasn’t a sultry summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Thats why I like JFK, we can still get 100 degree heat on SW winds in the summer lol. Summer 2010 was amazing for heat. Summers have been puny and boring since 2014 in terms of heat. JFK had 100+ heat three out of four summers between 2010 and 2013. While the 90 degree days were still up there in 2016 at JFK, the high dew points a warm minimums have been the greater story since 2014. Tough for JFK to hit a 100 degrees with the STR jacked up into SE Canada on a S To SE flow. Most 70 degree minimums at JFK 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 7 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 9 1984 46 0 10 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 12 1959 41 33 13 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 - 1949 40 0 Most 90 degree maximums at JFK 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 6 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 8 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 33 10 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 13 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 Most 100 degree maximums JFK 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 3 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 - 1983 2 0 - 1948 2 198 7 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2019 Share Posted March 11, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: While the 90 degree days were still up there in 2016 at JFK, the high dew points a warm minimums have been the greater story since 2014. Tough for JFK to hit a 100 degrees with the STR jacked up into SE Canada on a S To SE flow. Most 70 degree minimums at JFK 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 7 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 9 1984 46 0 10 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 12 1959 41 33 13 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 - 1949 40 0 Most 90 degree maximums at JFK 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 6 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 8 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 33 10 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 13 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 Most 100 degree maximums JFK 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 3 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 - 1983 2 0 - 1948 2 198 7 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 Thanks Chris- any early predictions for this summer? Can we avoid that infamous S-SE flow and have more of a classic summer with westerly winds? 1983 was interesting because it had the high heat AND the high humidity and record rainfall! What was going on that year to cause such extremes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris- any early predictions for this summer? Can we avoid that infamous S-SE flow and have more of a classic summer with westerly winds? 1983 was interesting because it had the high heat AND the high humidity and record rainfall! What was going on that year to cause such extremes? Back in the 80's there was a question on the captains' exam, what is the prevailing summer wind? A lot of folks wrote S-SE, and it was wrong, the prevailing wind is NW. I remember my captain saying come out one PM trip and I'll show you the "NW" wind ( They were always getting their butts kicked in the South winds ). Sadly, there are few pm trips anymore, not enough fish or customers. They still have the 1:30 pm trips, but 3 pm trips are gone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I keep track of things like that, I think there are towns over there that probably get hotter than Death Valley. And the dew points are literally through the roof! I can't wait until we get our first confirmed recording of 130 degree heat, a few towns have come tantalizingly close. From a pure heat perspective Death Valley has the Persian Gulf beat, but from a heat index perspective...it's really incredible (and quite unbearable) over there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris- any early predictions for this summer? Can we avoid that infamous S-SE flow and have more of a classic summer with westerly winds? 1983 was interesting because it had the high heat AND the high humidity and record rainfall! What was going on that year to cause such extremes? The current SST pattern looks closer to 2015-2018 than 2010. But it will be interesting to see if we can get some more westerly flow this year and a shot at a JFK 100. You can see big difference in wind direction between last July and 2010. SSE last July vs more W in 2010. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 the first 100 degree day I remember was in 1957...1955 had a few but I was to young to remember...NYC saw 100 degree days in 1949, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1957...1966 is my favorite hot summer...I was 17 and it was a very good year weather wise...maybe if there is a brush fire around the Central Park observation plot you might get one there... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 13 hours ago, ILoveWinter said: From a pure heat perspective Death Valley has the Persian Gulf beat, but from a heat index perspective...it's really incredible (and quite unbearable) over there. They get more 120+ temp days for sure, but the old 1913 record at Death Valley of 134 degrees has a 50% likelihood of being wrong according to climatologists. If it's wrong the next highest temp is 129 degrees, also at Death Valley, but they'd be in a tie with a few locations in the middle and near east. The odd thing is so many locations have tied at 129 degrees, and no one has yet crossed the 130 degree "barrier." The amazing heat indices in the Middle East are probably why they have the records for the highest overnight temp and the highest temp at which rain has fallen. There are reports of rain falling that turned to steam as soon as it hit the ground! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The current SST pattern looks closer to 2015-2018 than 2010. But it will be interesting to see if we can get some more westerly flow this year and a shot at a JFK 100. You can see big difference in wind direction between last July and 2010. SSE last July vs more W in 2010. Thanks Chris, what's been the cause for the increase in more onshore flow the last few years? Is it linked to the switch to a +NAO the last few years? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 37 minutes ago, uncle W said: the first 100 degree day I remember was in 1957...1955 had a few but I was to young to remember...NYC saw 100 degree days in 1949, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1957...1966 is my favorite hot summer...I was 17 and it was a very good year weather wise...maybe if there is a brush fire around the Central Park observation plot you might get one there... 1966 must have been nice, high heat with low humidity and a great winter followed that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12, 2019 Share Posted March 12, 2019 2014 and 2015 were the only 2 summers during the 2010’s not to reach 100 degrees around the area. Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ 2010 106 4 2011 107 3 2012 103 2 2013 102 0 2014 95 0 2015 98 0 2016 100 0 2017 98 0 2018 101 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 2010 103 0 2011 108 0 2012 104 0 2013 101 0 2014 96 0 2015 98 0 2016 99 0 2017 99 0 2018 98 0 Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY - 2010 103 0 2011 104 0 2012 101 0 2013 100 0 2014 93 0 2015 95 0 2016 99 0 2017 101 0 2018 98 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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