Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

[SnoSki14]

Believe it or not there is a light at the end of this horrendous tunnel. 

If you just go to last winter, many assumed winter was over once it shut off Jan 10. Luckily our best and brightest knew that wouldn't be the case and we ended up having one of the best Marches on record. 

This time should be much better as our snowiest period will likely coincide with climo meaning we won't have to worry as much about temps and the sun angle. And wouldn't you know it, our best people are once again forecasting a very snowy period.

[uncle W]

some el nino years that had most of its snow after January 15th...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"
1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"
1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"
2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"

2014-15........3.2"......47.4"......50.4"

2015-16...…..0.2"......32.6"......32.8"

2018-19...…..6.4"

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 minute ago, uncle W said:

some el nino years that had most of its snow after January 15th...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"
1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"
1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"
2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"

2014-15........3.2"......47.4"......50.4"

2015-16...…..0.2"......32.6"......32.8"

2018-19...…..6.4"

Only match I see for 5"+ of snowfall by the 15th are 68-69, 77-78, and 79-80.

[forkyfork]

happy boxing day

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

11 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

happy boxing day

Remembering 8 years ago. 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Only match I see for 5"+ of snowfall by the 15th are 68-69, 77-78, and 79-80.

I want to see a match that had more snow in November than December lol

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Trying to get in the festive mood. Not feeling it. Maybe I'm getting old?

Go look at the big Christmas Tree and go ice skating lol.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Go look at the big Christmas Tree and go ice skating lol.

Can't ice skate. Poor. Also looking at the Christmas tree might make me more depressed. Although I can check it out next Sunday.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Can't ice skate. Poor. Also looking at the Christmas tree might make me more depressed. Although I can check it out next Sunday.

Thats when I'm going too- hopefully with some snow falling!

 

[MJO812]

I just want wall to wall cold and snow

 

Is that hard to ask for ?

[uncle W]

9 hours ago, forkyfork said:

happy boxing day

1947...

http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?141114

http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?142010

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878037/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878066/

1872 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791

1890 from the Evening World...

http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/

1933

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/57565868/

•  

[Snowshack]

47 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I just want wall to wall cold and snow

 

Is that hard to ask for ?

That’s the perfect winter, white from December to March.  Cant see it happening here.  Even 95/96 melted down.  We go back and forth to our place in the adirondacks to chase winter and even there wall to walls are getting rare.  

We can get some great 4-6 week periods here and that’s certainly still on the table to root for.  

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

That’s the perfect winter, white from December to March.  Cant see it happening here.  Even 95/96 melted down.  We go back and forth to our place in the adirondacks to chase winter and even there wall to walls are getting rare.  

We can get some great 4-6 week periods here and that’s certainly still on the table to root for.  

Even in ME my BIL says the 14 inches they had is gone.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Even in ME my BIL says the 14 inches they had is gone.

Not much snowcover anywhere

 

[Snowshack]

21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Even in ME my BIL says the 14 inches they had is gone.

Yeah tough timing for all the winter activity concerns.   Many of them have a tough time recovering from losing holiday week business. 

We had this debate last year when it came time to grade the season, but to me it doesn’t matter how many inches we hopefully rack up post Jan 1 - a season with a mild/wet holiday period can never get an ‘A’ in my book.  

Maybe if we get 75” in JFM I’ll go A- lol.  

[Brian5671]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Not much snowcover anywhere

 

no cold air anywhere.  Once Canada got torched, takes awhile to erase that....

[ForestHillWx]

From my own anecdotal perspective, to date, this has been a colder Oct-Dec period than last year. We used one tank of heating oil so far; last year the first tank lasted until mid-January. 

Side note, oil per barrel just hit sub-$45.00; I am hoping with great anticipation for the relaxation in diesel/home heating oil. The $2.67 I just paid, is $.50 higher per gallon than this time last year. What I am unsure of is it demand driven or are refineries running at lower capacity or is it the lag time due to the higher summer/fall oil prices causing the increase in price? 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

From my own anecdotal perspective, to date, this has been a colder Oct-Dec period than last year. We used one tank of heating oil so far; last year the first tank lasted until mid-January. 

Side note, oil per barrel just hit sub-$45.00; I am hoping with great anticipation for the relaxation in diesel/home heating oil. The $2.67 I just paid, is $.50 higher per gallon than this time last year. What I am unsure of is it demand driven or are refineries running at lower capacity or is it the lag time due to the higher summer/fall oil prices causing the increase in price? 

down to 43.89 this am--I think oil could drop to the high 30's...

[uncle W]

11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

down to 43.89 this am--I think oil could drop to the high 30's...

if I had money I would have invested in oil when it went below 30 dollars   I was so sure it would rise again...I would have tripled my money...If it goes into the 30's buy...

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

if I had money I would have invested in oil when it went below 30 dollars   I was so sure it would rise again...I would have tripled my money...If it goes into the 30's buy...

I would think it would be a long term investment. While it will definitely go back up it may stay low for a long period.

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I just want wall to wall cold and snow

 

Is that hard to ask for ?

Not hard to ask for but it is nearly impossible to get. We've come close a few times over the last 25 years but that big wet thing to our east is gonna win no matter how hard you wish for it not to. 

50 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I would think it would be a long term investment. While it will definitely go back up it may stay low for a long period.

If the politicians and oil companies have their way they'll tap that 90 billion barrels under the now nearly completely melted arctic ice cap and oil prices can stay reasonable for decades to come. Between that, new more affordable ways to recover more from existing fields and decreasing need due to alternative energies coming online over the next few years there will be plenty to go around. I think the days of big returns from oil are probably over. 

[bluewave]

Pretty impressive video of the Sanibel Island meteotsunami.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/24/meteotsunami-flooded-naples-fla-last-week-during-high-tide-heres-what-that-means/?utm_term=.f7c8d7c71ef2

 

[495weatherguy]

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Not hard to ask for but it is nearly impossible to get. We've come close a few times over the last 25 years but that big wet thing to our east is gonna win no matter how hard you wish for it not to. 

If the politicians and oil companies have their way they'll tap that 90 billion barrels under the now nearly completely melted arctic ice cap and oil prices can stay reasonable for decades to come. Between that, new more affordable ways to recover more from existing fields and decreasing need due to alternative energies coming online over the next few years there will be plenty to go around. I think the days of big returns from oil are probably over. 

Good analysis

[495weatherguy]

5 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Not hard to ask for but it is nearly impossible to get. We've come close a few times over the last 25 years but that big wet thing to our east is gonna win no matter how hard you wish for it not to. 

If the politicians and oil companies have their way they'll tap that 90 billion barrels under the now nearly completely melted arctic ice cap and oil prices can stay reasonable for decades to come. Between that, new more affordable ways to recover more from existing fields and decreasing need due to alternative energies coming online over the next few years there will be plenty to go around. I think the days of big returns from oil are probably over. 

Oil surged on Wednesday, posting its strongest daily gain in more than two years in a partial rebound from steep losses that pushed crude benchmarks to lows not seen since 2017.

[JerseyWx]

9 hours ago, Snow88 said:

I just want wall to wall cold and snow

 

Is that hard to ask for ?

Yes, because you live in New York City lol.  

[BxEngine]

Lots of timeouts coming. No more hiding posts. 

[Rtd208]

Weenies living and dying by every model run.

#cliffjumping

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, Snowshack said:

That’s the perfect winter, white from December to March.  Cant see it happening here.  Even 95/96 melted down.  We go back and forth to our place in the adirondacks to chase winter and even there wall to walls are getting rare.  

We can get some great 4-6 week periods here and that’s certainly still on the table to root for.  

1995-96 was the perfect winter in the sense that we had a major event every month from December through April, regardless of the thaws in between.  8-14 inch MECS in December, 20-30 inch HECS in January 8-12 inch MECS in February 6-8 inch MECS in March and 4-12 inch MECS in April.  2009-10 would have been right up there too if we didn't just barely miss out on the early Feb 2010 storm (it would still fall a bit short in my book because the snow season ended after February.)  2002-03 was the closest thing to 1995-96 since that year but that falls short too since we didn't get anything major in January or March.

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, uncle W said:

1947...

http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?141114

http://world.nycsubway.org/perl/show?142010

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878037/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/52878066/

1872 from the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-5/

http://chroniclingam...-27/ed-1/seq-1/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352788

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352790

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50352791

1890 from the Evening World...

http://chroniclingam...-26/ed-1/seq-1/

1933

https://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/57565868/

•  

Dec 26 is one of those special weather days when a lot of events have happened that are historic.

[495weatherguy]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1995-96 was the perfect winter in the sense that we had a major event every month from December through April, regardless of the thaws in between.  8-14 inch MECS in December, 20-30 inch HECS in January 8-12 inch MECS in February 6-8 inch MECS in March and 4-12 inch MECS in April.  2009-10 would have been right up there too if we didn't just barely miss out on the early Feb 2010 storm (it would still fall a bit short in my book because the snow season ended after February.)  2002-03 was the closest thing to 1995-96 since that year but that falls short too since we didn't get anything major in January or March.

That was some winter.  In addition to the storms you noted, we did have a few misses as well.  I recall that it seemed as though there was always a storm threat