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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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29 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

There’s a difference between a bust and disappointment/underperformed. This one underperformed for people near the coast but it’s probably not a bust. My point and click had 6-10” yesterday evening and I had 4-5”, so I guess you could call that a bust technically since it fell outside the range. 

There was big uncertainty about where the mix line would be, such things are the realm of nowcasting.  Cant fault the forecasters, I expected 3-5 inches here and got about 2.5 lol.  About an inch less than the one prior to this one.

 

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When did these start?

Extreme Cold Warning


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1042 AM MST Mon Mar 4 2019

MTZ002-003-007-043-041845-
/O.EXP.KMSO.EC.W.0001.000000T0000Z-190304T1800Z/
West Glacier Region-Flathead/Mission Valleys-
Butte/Blackfoot Region-Potomac/Seeley Lake Region-
1042 AM MST Mon Mar 4 2019
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2 hours ago, ag3 said:

Quickly ran updated seasonal #s:

LGA: 18.1" for the season.

NYC: 20.5" for the season.

EWR: 21.8" for the season.

JFK: 14.4" for the season.

BDR: 24.4" for the season.

ISP: 14.3" for the season.

 

Most of the area is under Don's latest 15"-25" prediction.

Think we get one more event to close out the season, perhaps at the end of the week?

 

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45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Most of the area is under Don's latest 15"-25" prediction.

Think we get one more event to close out the season, perhaps at the end of the week?

 

You're really splitting hairs calling that outside of Don's range.. three stations at 14.x and three already between 15 - 25.   

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

There’s a difference between a bust and disappointment/underperformed. This one underperformed for people near the coast but it’s probably not a bust. My point and click had 6-10” yesterday evening and I had 4-5”, so I guess you could call that a bust technically since it fell outside the range. 

It was sarcasm dude. You have to respond to Bx with sarcasm, it's in the rule book.

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42 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I think the aerial extent of the under/overperforming matters almost as much as the magnitude when declaring a bust. A true bust defies predictions across a wide area, not just isolated pockets within a region of fulfilled expectations.

Long island was a bust

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8 hours ago, Snowshack said:

You're really splitting hairs calling that outside of Don's range.. three stations at 14.x and three already between 15 - 25.   

Sorry bad phrasing on my part, when I said most of the area is under Don's 15"-25" range I actually meant it's in his range- by "under" I meant it fits in the same category as his range (like, "under the same category.")

When we saw how this winter was going (like 80s winters) I said we had a 50/50 shot to get to 20".  That was based on my experience with those winters.  Similar to his 15"-25" range.

 

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I can say I’m pretty much done with winter, don’t get me wrong I love a lot of snow and extreme cold, I’m a steam boiler guy my business depends on cold. But it also depends on AC in the summer. However I love summer more, I love extreme heat, I love July days 95-100 degrees with the sun out, with the daylight now extending my body is telling me it’s time to go outside but it’s still too cold. After St.Paddys day I am truly done and hoping we have some sort of spring this year. Also hoping to have a hot summer not a steamy one like the last 3 or 4 seem to have been. I have two Harley’s and they got cabin fever, I’m a fair weather rider so no rain or cold riding for me. 

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29 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

I can say I’m pretty much done with winter, don’t get me wrong I love a lot of snow and extreme cold, I’m a steam boiler guy my business depends on cold. But it also depends on AC in the summer. However I love summer more, I love extreme heat, I love July days 95-100 degrees with the sun out, with the daylight now extending my body is telling me it’s time to go outside but it’s still too cold. After St.Paddys day I am truly done and hoping we have some sort of spring this year. Also hoping to have a hot summer not a steamy one like the last 3 or 4 seem to have been. I have two Harley’s and they got cabin fever, I’m a fair weather rider so no rain or cold riding for me. 

Seems like we go straight from winter to summer. 

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

95 sucks, I love round numbers, so 100 is a lot better.  At least it looks better lol and you get to say you experienced 100 degree heat.

 

Haha true. But whatever the max possible temp NYC can reach pales to several other cities.  I spent some time in Persian Gulf (Dubai and Doha) in summer and I can tell you that the heat was incredible.  115 easily and some days with excessive humidity (espec in Dubai though I think the world record heat index of 178 was at Dhahran Saudi Arabia with 108 at 95%). 

It was downright dangerous to be active outside for more than 10 mins - I of course was intrigued by all of it and did force myself to walk around just for the experience.  So hot that I had to cover my cheeks with my hands due to the burn. 

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