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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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17 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Just for S's and G's, here is a collection of memorable quotes from the January discussion thread.  no attempt was made to preserve context:

CMC also has the makings of a HECS @ 240.

There is no SE ridge

Its coming, finally.

00Z Para GFS actually looks great. 

Euro looks a little better.

Why cant we see a storm go west to east at our latitude?

A piece of the PV is in Canada.

Gefs is pretty nice for the NYC area. 

Para gfs has about a foot for NYC with over 20 inches for inland areas 

Good sign considering the ensembles are usually too dry this far out.

Weeklies are great moving forward

Long Island has a new "snow fighting strategy" they said they expect to deploy when the big surprise snowstorms strike later this winter.

The pattern flip started today

the MJO, will bite you in the bum

Do we need more probes 

I heard weird musical sounds 

The substantial snow for nyc doesn’t come until tomorrow night

I like the potential moving forward.  Let's not get caught up in track details 

The NAM is on its way to producing a big low offshore 

It’s getting very hard now

yup, going to be big

It may be premature

Usually the positive depth change map deflates weenies.

Still doubt anyone sees over 1 inch

I might have to give myself a timeout.

Maybe this Sunday the snow will accumulate

I hope there’s a way for someone with your skills to get paid

Remember a week ago when people were panicking and declaring January over?

Hopefully, no one was hurt.

A dusting to a coating on all surfaces.

I'll take a huge snowstorm over these dusting events any day 

This is going to be the biggest hit this year

Yes, there's lots of potential on the EPS. 

Too many people staring at RMM plots when we have big time potential in the not too distance future.

Next weekend is the real story.

could've been a KU with a differently timed northern stream

it feels like mid-January outside.

I am North and West... but not enough.

I've been a heat distribution theory fan for a long time 

We don't need a met for this discussion

Non stop cold and snow

NAM and Euro just dropped 12-18" cold powder

There is a difference between a pattern that supports a storm and a pattern that doesn't.

the 12Z run showed this weekend's storm as a monster.

I currently have some snow flurries falling here.

Starting to tick NW on guidance, to bad its ticking back from Bermuda.

Winter is coming

Does it look like the cold pattern will last all the way through February and into March?

Anyone have the snowfall amounts from today's event?

Is this a trick question?

Personally I liked the 1995-96 winter a lot better.

I often neglect to keep records because I figure there's no way I'll still be living

Too much living and dying by every model run in here.

I hope you're recording now at least, its never too late to start recording weather obs.

I shouldn't have put gas in that new snowblower.

The winter that keeps fooling everyone

The question is, do we count Nov 15th

I'll take the over.

Hysterical 

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10 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Wow. I've had to drive on interstates and other big roads a bunch of times in the snow and it's always a crap shoot whether or not you make it to where you're headed without a problem or long delay. I'd much rather be on smaller secondary or tertiary roads if I have a choice. 

Going way too fast for those conditions and low visibility. No chance of stopping in time. Hopefully there were only minor injuries

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^^ Wow. I've had to drive on interstates and other big roads a bunch of times in the snow and it's always a crap shoot whether or not you make it to where you're headed without a problem or long delay. I'd much rather be on smaller secondary or tertiary roads if I have a choice. 

People just can’t slow down these days. Raging snow and ice storm? Hmm I’ll drove ten under the 70 mph limit. People forget 4x4 is great st getting you up to speed but it does nothing for slowing you down in icy conditions. I try to avoid driving in icy conditions because of the idiots.

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3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I have zero interest in the Sunday night/Monday or Wednesday/Thursday storms. The theme this winter has been for storms to have a less wintry look as we move closer to the event and that theme is continuing. We have been chasing fantasy/digital snow all winter.

Last tues was IMHO winter's last hurrah for us. It ain't our year. We're gonna finish well below average. Has to happen some years, and this one is almost in the books. Let's hope it's not several years ( and it can be, believe me ).

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This is quickly becoming my least favorite winter of all time (minus the nov event as it was not winter). BOS has a snow storm now leaving NYC as the sole area from North Carolina north to not have a snow event over 2”. Wednesday could easily be another non event. We have one last shot the last few days of feb into the beginning of March where the PNA could finally go positive and we could see a bench mark type track regime take over. If that does not pan out this will be hands down my least favorite winter of all time  

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14 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is quickly becoming my least favorite winter of all time (minus the nov event as it was not winter). BOS has a snow storm now leaving NYC as the sole area from North Carolina north to not have a snow event over 2”. Wednesday could easily be another non event. We have one last shot the last few days of feb into the beginning of March where the PNA could finally go positive and we could see a bench mark type track regime take over. If that does not pan out this will be hands down my least favorite winter of all time  

What about 01-02? Or you're only counting meteorological winter?

I remember a lot of really crappy winters: 97-98, 98-99, 01-02...middle school winters were brutally warm and snowless. 99-00 wasn't too much better except for the one stretch in late January where we had a 6" storm and some arctic air. 

The position of the Hawaiian ridge stretching south of AK with a vortex to the north this year is very similar to 98-99 and 99-00, some of our worst Nina winters. A flat Aleutian ridge or ridge north of Hawaii tends to be a very unfavorable Pacific signal, and that's ruled the roost this winter.

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

This is quickly becoming my least favorite winter of all time (minus the nov event as it was not winter). BOS has a snow storm now leaving NYC as the sole area from North Carolina north to not have a snow event over 2”. Wednesday could easily be another non event. We have one last shot the last few days of feb into the beginning of March where the PNA could finally go positive and we could see a bench mark type track regime take over. If that does not pan out this will be hands down my least favorite winter of all time  

That's probably because your income wasn't adversely affected by 2011-2012.  Honestly, to experience a worse winter than 1997-98 you'd have to move to Key West.

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1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That's probably because your income wasn't adversely affected by 2011-2012.  Honestly, to experience a worse winter than 1997-98 you'd have to move to Key West.

I should clarify that the reason for those winters being better would be the lack of wasted cold. 01-02 had little cold but it snowed when the little cold showed. 97-98 was a super nino furnace and was fully expected. The only winter I can think of (and remember we aren’t counting the November event) is 72-73. That’s the only other winter that has this ones cold and lack of snow. As much as we kept hitting home runs every time we were at bat the last few years we equally struck out this year. The ultimate thread the needle bad. Watch DC score another another one this week and we miss out (entirely possible).

I’m still optimistic that we score at least one advisory+ snow event before the end of the season. In order to do that we need to completely reshuffle the pattern. 40/70 baby

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I should clarify that the reason for those winters being better would be the lack of wasted cold. 01-02 had little cold but it snowed when the little cold showed. 97-98 was a super nino furnace and was fully expected. The only winter I can think of (and remember we aren’t counting the November event) is 72-73. That’s the only other winter that has this ones cold and lack of snow. As much as we kept hitting home runs every time we were at bat the last few years we equally struck out this year. The ultimate thread the needle bad. Watch DC score another another one this week and we miss out (entirely possible).

I’m still optimistic that we score at least one advisory+ snow event before the end of the season. In order to do that we need to completely reshuffle the pattern. 40/70 baby

A agree with your sentiment of wasting the cold with nothing to show for it, but if you are going to discount November, are you also going to discount any March snows we may potentially get?  

Last year we got I believe more than half our snowfall in March, even though March is not part of “meteorological” winter. We had a surprise snowstorm this Pastor November, why would we not count it?  That being said, we still have about a month to make up for lost time, hoping we can make some lemonade out of this lemon! 

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42 minutes ago, Jason215 said:

A agree with your sentiment of wasting the cold with nothing to show for it, but if you are going to discount November, are you also going to discount any March snows we may potentially get?  

Last year we got I believe more than half our snowfall in March, even though March is not part of “meteorological” winter. We had a surprise snowstorm this Pastor November, why would we not count it?  That being said, we still have about a month to make up for lost time, hoping we can make some lemonade out of this lemon! 

A mid November storm is akin to a mid April storm if you look at the historical significance. (That’s why that October storm in 2011 was a 1/100 year event just like the May 77 storm) 

i would consider all of March like all of December snow season. First half and second half especially. It doesn’t really matter anyway even with that event this season has still been awful. The one thing I do not want is some 98 repeat where 5” fell and melted a few hours later and ruined the futility record in the process. 

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A mid November storm is akin to a mid April storm if you look at the historical significance. (That’s why that October storm in 2011 was a 1/100 year event just like the May 77 storm) 

i would consider all of March like all of December snow season. First half and second half especially. It doesn’t really matter anyway even with that event this season has still been awful. The one thing I do not want is some 98 repeat where 5” fell and melted a few hours later and ruined the futility record in the process. 

That October 2011 event was more rare than May 1977, there is nothing in the entirety of NYC recorded snowfall climatology to match it, unless you go back before official records started being kept and then you do see some 4-5" snowfalls in the last third of October, but that's going all the way back to the early-mid 1800s.  We even had an inch or two out here on the south shore of Nassau County.  NYC was under a winter storm warning and 6" fell in The Bronx!

 

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4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A mid November storm is akin to a mid April storm if you look at the historical significance. (That’s why that October storm in 2011 was a 1/100 year event just like the May 77 storm) 

i would consider all of March like all of December snow season. First half and second half especially. It doesn’t really matter anyway even with that event this season has still been awful. The one thing I do not want is some 98 repeat where 5” fell and melted a few hours later and ruined the futility record in the process. 

I would also add that the early November storm in the following season, in 2012, was also more rare than May 1977 because we had warning criteria snows here in southwestern Nassau County- 8"!

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