Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

[Ericjcrash]

12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

 Dc is snowing

About to get smoked too, only for a little, but that last band means business. 

[CIK62]

Show about to start in Chicago, but not quite a record according to the LAMP:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KORD

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, CIK62 said:

Show about to start in Chicago, but not quite a record according to the LAMP:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KORD

The impressive part is how it remains cold throughout the day tomorrow.

[bluewave]

Seems like Stella in March 2017 opened the door for more interior jackpots. The coast really ran the table from 12-13 to Feb 17. Since then, it has been more of a duel between interior vs coastal sections for the heaviest snowfall accumulations.

 

 

[ILoveWinter]

Thought this was a great read.  AFD discussion from the Chicago area on the cold:

 

.SHORT TERM...
325 PM CST

Through Wednesday...

The much advertised record to near record cold blast is on our
doorstep this afternoon. First order of business are the scattered
snow showers and blowing snow that are causing impacts in some
areas, especially on north-south roads in open areas. Most
significantly, DuPage Airport has been reporting 3/4 mile or less
visibility since just prior to 1pm and 1/4 mile visibility in
heavy snow as of the 2pm hour. Thus the message remains the same,
a combo of any falling snow and blowing snow with winds sustained
20-30 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and briefly 40 mph at times will
cause temporary sharply reduced visibility and possibly even
brief near blizzard conditions. With the narrow character of these
snow shower streamers on radar, also expect to encounter rapidly
changing visibility and road conditions. Forecast soundings
indicate that the setup will be less favorable for occasional
moderate-heavy snow rates in these snow showers this evening and
probably lower coverage as well, but did maintain snow shower
mention. Blowing snow will continue to be an issue, especially in
open areas.

Wind chills in the -10 to -20 range as of this writing will fall
to solidly 20 to 30 below during the evening commute and 30 to 40
below by the late evening as temperatures quickly fall to below
zero area wide and a rapid fall commences during the evening. The
core of the coldest air mass will advect over the area after
midnight into Wednesday morning, bottoming out in the mid to
possibly mid minus 30s Celsius (possibly minus upper 30s) at 850
mb. For reference, the coldest ever observed 850 mb temperature at
ILX/PIA/RAN RAOB site is -32.9C on 1/10/1982. This will be true
direct Arctic discharge as a lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex
clips the region, a hallmark of past historic Arctic outbreaks.
The arrival of coldest air mass will likely be marked by a bit of
an uptick in the gusty winds overnight, with gusts back up to the
30-35 mph range until or just before daybreak.

The low level cold air advection will continue through mid-day
Wednesday, thus minimum air temperatures should be reached from
7-9am. With this being an advection cold, am now forecasting the
entire CWA to be 20 below or colder, including downtown Chicago.
Lowest temps will be about 27 to 28 below, so Rockford certainly
has a chance to tie or break its coldest all-time temperature
tomorrow morning and it may be close at ORD. Wednesday morning
will have the most dangerous/life-threatening wind chills at 50 to
60 below for most of the area due to sustained winds 15-25 mph
gusting to 30-35 mph. If you have the option to stay indoors
tomorrow, you are urged to strongly consider it, considering the
brutal cold and likelihood of at least patchy blowing snow. Have
adjusted forecast "high" temps Wednesday afternoon down slightly
from already astounding levels to now all areas staying at 10
below or colder and some locations in interior northern IL west of
Fox Valley possibly not getting above 20 below. Assuming
Chicago-O`Hare is colder than -11 at midnight tonight, which
appears likely, then the new coldest high temperature on record
appears extremely likely on Wednesday. Have even higher confidence
in Rockford setting the new record cold high temp.

With air temps in the teens below zero through the afternoon,
afternoon wind chills will remain dangerous in the -35 to -45
range even with gradually diminishing westerly winds. For the
grand finale of this possibly unprecedented Arctic blast,
Wednesday night into Thursday morning appears primed to set
records. Models continue to settle on very favorable position of
1035 mb surface ridge axis for strong decoupling over the deep
snow pack, along with indication to this point that any high
clouds will remain at bay until "the damage has been done" with
temps. Suspect that most guidance is too strong with winds, so
lowered speeds to below lowest MOS or bias corrected guidance, and
wouldn`t be surprised if outlying locations go calm at times. Only
possible fly in the ointment would be these above factors
trending less favorable, but at this time do not see that
occurring. The models have not backed off and in some cases, such
as ECMWF, have incredibly trended slightly colder for Thursday
morning lows.

With the teens below zero starting point, see no reason why
favored outlying locations in northern Illinois won`t reach or
exceed the state low temperature record (-36F in Congerville on
1/5/1999), thus have continued to forecast as such at locations
like KRPJ and KARR and surrounding areas. Would not be surprised
if we have some places bottom out at -40F. If RFD does not set
new all time record cold temperature Wednesday morning, it appears
likely to shatter the record Thursday morning (our official
forecast is now -32). There will be more of a urban "heat" island
gradient from Chicago to the suburbs as cold will be purely
radiational driven. Chicago still expected to have another
night/morning of the entire city -20 or colder, and ORD will be
very close to the -27 record from 1985. Eye opening that the 12z
ECMWF is indicating -30 there and many ensemble members are close
to the record. Finally, have added patchy fog mention to the grids
outside of Chicago, with the thinking being that rare ice fog
formation is possible with the Arctic temps and light winds.
Clouds will increase of Thursday afternoon`s clipper, with a
better recovery in temps but still locations I-80 and north
outside of downtown Chicago may not reach 0 degrees.

Castro

[CIK62]

Meanwhile the GFS prepares to disappoint us here about three times in the next 15 days.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Saw this on New York Metro Weather twitter feed today.  I'm assuming this was labelled this way at least partly tongue-in-cheek:

 

[Ericjcrash]

Getting some troll flakes as precip shuts off. 

I'm ready for May. 

[MJO812]

43 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Getting some troll flakes as precip shuts off. 

I'm ready for May. 

You seem like a very negative person. =(

[David-LI]

Lol this doppler radar is the definition of winter giving us a middle finger.

 

Please let me see a snow flake pleaaaseee oh nooo pleaaaseee

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Thought this was a great read.  AFD discussion from the Chicago area on the cold:

 

It's going to be close on their all-time record low max.  -7 currently.  Needs to be -12 at 12am.

[coastalplainsnowman]

General layman question about cold outbreaks like the one hitting Chicago.  Why do such cold airmasses not hit the Northeast directly?  Is it more than a matter of luck that the airmasses bullseye in the midwest rather than 800-1000 miles to the east?  I realize that the ocean would help moderate temps somewhat, but even that aside, seems that that bulge of frigid air always hits to the west.  Thinking back to 1994 and I think Dec. 83 before that, we got into some seriously low numbers here but never close to the intensity of what Chicago is getting.  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

General layman question about cold outbreaks like the one hitting Chicago.  Why do such cold airmasses not hit the Northeast directly?  Is it more than a matter of luck that the airmasses bullseye in the midwest rather than 800-1000 miles to the east?  I realize that the ocean would help moderate temps somewhat, but even that aside, seems that that bulge of frigid air always hits to the west.  Thinking back to 1994 and I think Dec. 83 before that, we got into some seriously low numbers here but never close to the intensity of what Chicago is getting.  

The worst of the polar vortex is diving into the upper Midwest and will pivot NE before reaching us. We're receiving a relatively glancing blow but it will still be quite nasty. If the trough was positioned further east, the polar vortex would've dove south closer to us.

[SnoSki14]

Complete disaster of a winter continues for NYC & Boston. 

And it'll be more of the same until this wretched winter ends. 

[David-LI]

28 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

General layman question about cold outbreaks like the one hitting Chicago.  Why do such cold airmasses not hit the Northeast directly?  Is it more than a matter of luck that the airmasses bullseye in the midwest rather than 800-1000 miles to the east?  I realize that the ocean would help moderate temps somewhat, but even that aside, seems that that bulge of frigid air always hits to the west.  Thinking back to 1994 and I think Dec. 83 before that, we got into some seriously low numbers here but never close to the intensity of what Chicago is getting.  

The midwest will always be bullseye for very cold weather. You are wrong in believing that such cold air masses never hit the northeast. We are about to get hit really hard with the PV. 

 

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Complete disaster of a winter continues for NYC & Boston. 

And it'll be more of the same until this wretched winter ends. 

 Woe is us

[North and West]

 

11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Complete disaster of a winter continues for NYC & Boston. 

And it'll be more of the same until this wretched winter ends. 

Dude, that's melodramatic for something that's out of our control. We've had a lot of enjoyment the past decade or so. This is how we get averages. 

[Brian5671]

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Complete disaster of a winter continues for NYC & Boston. 

And it'll be more of the same until this wretched winter ends. 

No one will believe LR forecasts for next year that's for sure....surprising to go from expected 100-150% of normal snowfall to perhaps 10-25% depending on whether we get anything (and the next 7-10 days does not look good)

[snowheavyattimes]

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Complete disaster of a winter continues for NYC & Boston. 

And it'll be more of the same until this wretched winter ends. 

We were long overdue for a winter like this.

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowheavyattimes said:

We were long overdue for a winter like this.

Completely agree-regression to the mean....

[Ericjcrash]

38 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said:

We were long overdue for a winter like this.

Yep, and several more.

[Brian5671]

let's all move to the Tug hill plateau

-

WHAT...Blizzard conditions. Heavy lake effect snow and
  dangerously cold wind chills expected. Winds gusting as high as
  40 mph. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4 feet expected in the
  most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.
  Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.

[SnoSki14]

42 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Completely agree-regression to the mean....

One bad winter doesn't indicate a regression to the mean.

We've recently had bad winters including 11/12 but there was no overall regression.

[Brian5671]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

One bad winter doesn't indicate a regression to the mean.

We've recently had bad winters including 11/12 but there was no overall regression.

Fair point, but what's gone on in the past 20 years is not typical here...

[RDRY]

A 943 low east of Maine. Now that's funny.

[NorthShoreWx]

I think this winter has been kind of interesting.  I'd prefer [lots] more snow, but it hasn't been boring.

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fair point, but what's gone on in the past 20 years is not typical here...

If the next 2 winters are duds then you may be right. 

Our most recent back to back dud winters were 06/07 & 07/08 if you're purely talking snowfall amounts.

11/12 & 12/13 would've been close had we'd not seen a late winter comeback. I guess such a comeback is still possible even this year though I highly doubt it.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, RDRY said:

A 943 low east of Maine. Now that's funny.

Don't worry,  we still manage to rain.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Don't worry,  we still manage to rain.

While suffocating snows fall over the gulf stream

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Do you guys realize it’s January and your talking about this winter in the past tense? I get it, I’m more frustrated as anyone as you guys who are regulars know. But we still have more then half of our snow climo left. 

I will agree on one thing, if we do not see a turn around and we end up below average snow it will be damaging to long range forecasters. 

I just do not see how it’s even possible we make it through the rest of the winter without at least one advisory level event. Even 97/98 managed to pull it off and that was light years more hostile for snow then this winter