Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
 Share

Recommended Posts

On 12/15/2018 at 8:05 AM, bluewave said:

That is some story. It produced The 2nd biggest snowstorm in Detroit history. We wound up on the warm side of the storm. I can remember all the sand pushed up onto the streets from the coastal flooding near the beach. 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtwsnowstorm

Wind Records (Peak Gusts in MPH)
Location
 
Central Park (1951-pres.)
ENE 78 mph
December 2, 1974


The Battery
 113+ mph
October 14, 1954

Was there any damage from Hurricane Hazel in New York City? I can't find any info online about it, all I found was the wind speed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Should make it like some of the FB pages where you have to answer a couple of questions. It might weed out some of the riff raff. RJay and BX need the work ;) 

I think they toil hard enough working each other over. ( with a little help from I. B. ).    As always......

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, LIWeatherGuy29 said:

Was there any damage from Hurricane Hazel in New York City? I can't find any info online about it, all I found was the wind speed.

The anemometer at the Battery was at an elevation of 450 feet. So that gust was higher than the surrounding stations.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/noaareports/at195409.pdf

Peak surface gusts around NYC:

EWR...76

TEB.....71

LGA.... 66

JFK......65


The strongest winds occurred i n New York City between 7:30 and 8:OO p.m. when the center of the storm was in the process of moving toward Lake Ontario. Numerous gusts of over 70 miles per hour were ob- served at the Weather Bureau Office at the Battery with the highest velocity of 113 miles per hour,
for the fastest mile, occurring at 7:49 p.m. This velocity ishigher than that reported by most other reporting stations around this area but consistent with the pattern especially since the anemometer is a t an elevation of 450 feet above sea level with wide open exposure t o southeast winds. This is the highest wind velocity recorded since weather observations were started by the Weather Bureau in New York City in 1871. The previous high record for the fastest mile Was 99 miles per hour occurring with the passage of the 1944 hurricane on September 14th. The speeding up of the forward motion of this storm prevented the tides from developing to anything exceptional Since the strong winds occurred about two hours before high-tide time. Tides were above normal, however, in most all localities around the Metropolitan area during the morning and vening high tide periods.
With a storm of this type, it was natural that the amount Of damage was related to the distance from the center of the storm and i n the Metropolitan area, the greatest amount Of damage was reported from northern New Jersey, a considerable amount in New York City proper and then tapering off to very little in Suffolk County on Long Island.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

in case Christmas is warm here are the other mild Christmas days...

year...max/min

1889....64 43 snowy March...

1893....58 45 Snowy February...

1900....59 44

1915....55 38 snowy March...

1932....59 47 snowy February...

1933....55 34 snowy cold February

1936....56 40

1940....62 38 snowy March...

1964....60 49 snowy January...

1965....59 47 snowy January...

1979....61 50 March snowfall...

1982....64 41 big Feb snowstorm...

1986....53 43 snowy January...

1987....53 48 snowy January...

1988....53 37

1994....59 41 Feb snowstorm...

2005....54 39 Feb Snowstorm...

2008....57 33 March snowstorm...

2014....62 44 50" snow season...

2015....66 57 big January snow...

2016....50 36 Feb snowstorm...

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The anemometer at the Battery was at an elevation of 450 feet. So that gust was higher than the surrounding stations.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/noaareports/at195409.pdf

Peak surface gusts around NYC:

EWR...76

TEB.....71

LGA.... 66

JFK......65


The strongest winds occurred i n New York City between 7:30 and 8:OO p.m. when the center of the storm was in the process of moving toward Lake Ontario. Numerous gusts of over 70 miles per hour were ob- served at the Weather Bureau Office at the Battery with the highest velocity of 113 miles per hour,
for the fastest mile, occurring at 7:49 p.m. This velocity ishigher than that reported by most other reporting stations around this area but consistent with the pattern especially since the anemometer is a t an elevation of 450 feet above sea level with wide open exposure t o southeast winds. This is the highest wind velocity recorded since weather observations were started by the Weather Bureau in New York City in 1871. The previous high record for the fastest mile Was 99 miles per hour occurring with the passage of the 1944 hurricane on September 14th. The speeding up of the forward motion of this storm prevented the tides from developing to anything exceptional Since the strong winds occurred about two hours before high-tide time. Tides were above normal, however, in most all localities around the Metropolitan area during the morning and vening high tide periods.
With a storm of this type, it was natural that the amount Of damage was related to the distance from the center of the storm and i n the Metropolitan area, the greatest amount Of damage was reported from northern New Jersey, a considerable amount in New York City proper and then tapering off to very little in Suffolk County on Long Island.

Great info! Thanks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, bluewave said:

The anemometer at the Battery was at an elevation of 450 feet. So that gust was higher than the surrounding stations.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/noaareports/at195409.pdf

Peak surface gusts around NYC:

EWR...76

TEB.....71

LGA.... 66

JFK......65


The strongest winds occurred i n New York City between 7:30 and 8:OO p.m. when the center of the storm was in the process of moving toward Lake Ontario. Numerous gusts of over 70 miles per hour were ob- served at the Weather Bureau Office at the Battery with the highest velocity of 113 miles per hour,
for the fastest mile, occurring at 7:49 p.m. This velocity ishigher than that reported by most other reporting stations around this area but consistent with the pattern especially since the anemometer is a t an elevation of 450 feet above sea level with wide open exposure t o southeast winds. This is the highest wind velocity recorded since weather observations were started by the Weather Bureau in New York City in 1871. The previous high record for the fastest mile Was 99 miles per hour occurring with the passage of the 1944 hurricane on September 14th. The speeding up of the forward motion of this storm prevented the tides from developing to anything exceptional Since the strong winds occurred about two hours before high-tide time. Tides were above normal, however, in most all localities around the Metropolitan area during the morning and vening high tide periods.
With a storm of this type, it was natural that the amount Of damage was related to the distance from the center of the storm and i n the Metropolitan area, the greatest amount Of damage was reported from northern New Jersey, a considerable amount in New York City proper and then tapering off to very little in Suffolk County on Long Island.

Do we have any wind speed records from the Norfolk and Long Island hurricane from 1821?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/18/2018 at 10:01 PM, uncle W said:

in case Christmas is warm here are the other mild Christmas days...

year...max/min

1889....64 43 snowy March...

1893....58 45 Snowy February...

1900....59 44

1915....55 38 snowy March...

1932....59 47 snowy February...

1933....55 34 snowy cold February

1936....56 40

1940....62 38 snowy March...

1964....60 49 snowy January...

1965....59 47 snowy January...

1979....61 50 March snowfall...

1982....64 41 big Feb snowstorm...

1986....53 43 snowy January...

1987....53 48 snowy January...

1988....53 37

1994....59 41 Feb snowstorm...

2005....54 39 Feb Snowstorm...

2008....57 33 March snowstorm...

2014....62 44 50" snow season...

2015....66 57 big January snow...

2016....50 36 Feb snowstorm...

 

 

Growing up in Queens, I developed a rule

of thumb that worked well.

If I had to shovel around xmas decorations on the front steps...the winter ahead was a good or decent one. If I didnt, the winter ahead was not even decent.

 

For a kid observing this, it was shockingly consistent. Snow in Decembers leads to snowy winters.

 

This rule of thumb has been turned upside down in the last 15 years by huge storms.

 

2015 was a perfect example. Awful winter for snow before and after a historic storm...that melted almost as fast as it fell.

 

2015 could have easily looked like the 1995 el nino season. Our big storm that year gave us 10 inches of snow (ended as rain) for most of our season total.

 

Our big snows increasingly involve luck. If you dismiss the mid November snow as “threading the needle” or luck, look at what we have had thus far...bad timing, and now a lack of fundamentals, a questionable el nino. In other words, muddled

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 

 

Growing up in Queens, I developed a rule

of thumb that worked well.

If I had to shovel around xmas decorations on the front steps...the winter ahead was a good or decent one. If I didnt, the winter ahead was not even decent.

 

For a kid observing this, it was shockingly consistent. Snow in Decembers leads to snowy winters.

 

This rule of thumb has been turned upside down in the last 15 years by huge storms.

 

2015 was a perfect example. Awful winter for snow before and after a historic storm...that melted almost as fast as it fell.

 

2015 could have easily looked like the 1995 el nino season. Our big storm that year gave us 10 inches of snow (ended as rain) for most of our season total.

 

Our big snows increasingly involve luck. If you dismiss the mid November snow as “threading the needle” or luck, look at what we have had thus far...not much

 

A couple winters in the 70’s had basically snowless December’s and still yielded above average seasonal totals (including 77/78).   It’s not exclusive to 2000’s.   

It’s frustrating to punt the whole month though.  And even more so when it feels like Halloween around the holidays.  At least there are some positive signs out there.    

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good News on this travelling 30-Day Outlook I have been keeping track off since Sunday>>>>>>>>>>>>

CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now   20AN   10BN.          If Dec. finishes AN,  the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio,   42AN   21BN.

12/17   Update:    About the same at  22AN    8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right.    Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan.

12/18   Update:    20AN    10BN        12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN):    17AN   13BN

12/20   Update:    16BN    14AN !!!!!!!!!! A nice switchero.

12/21   Update:    22AN     8BN  This is hopeless.      The cold will always be a month away.    Accuweather sounds like it is giving up on Jan.,, and talks about a second SSW that might do something before the sun gets too high.

  • Like 2
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/20/2018 at 7:27 AM, Snowshack said:

A couple winters in the 70’s had basically snowless December’s and still yielded above average seasonal totals (including 77/78).   It’s not exclusive to 2000’s.   

It’s frustrating to punt the whole month though.  And even more so when it feels like Halloween around the holidays.  At least there are some positive signs out there.    

 

It's basically cutting out 1/3 of winter.  So we have January and February left and they'd better be great lol.  We've had some snowy Marches lately, but I dont think NYC has seen a 12+ March snowstorm since the 60s.  I know we haven't here in western Nassau County.  December however has seen two 12+ snowstorms, including the 20" Boxing Day Blizzard.  It's prime snowstorm month, much moreso than March is, so wiping out December hurts.

 

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It's basically cutting out 1/3 of winter.  So we have January and February left and they'd better be great lol.  We've had some snowy Marches lately, but I dont think NYC has seen a 12+ March snowstorm since the 60s.  I know we haven't here in western Nassau County.  December however has seen two 12+ snowstorms, including the 20" Boxing Day Blizzard.  It's prime snowstorm month, much moreso than March is, so wiping out December hurts.

 

Not sure I agree December over March.   At least out here in eastern Suffolk the long term Dec and Mar averages are almost identical.   And March has been far snowier than December thee last five years.   So if you're just into driving up the seasonal total, and some on here are, I don't yet think this crappy December matters.   

I'm a snowcover fan, so I'd rather have a 40" year with high number of snowcover days than have the entire winter concentrated into one 4-6 week epic blitz.   

Either way, anything would be better than what we got today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Snowshack said:

Not sure I agree December over March.   At least out here in eastern Suffolk the long term Dec and Mar averages are almost identical.   And March has been far snowier than December thee last five years.   So if you're just into driving up the seasonal total, and some on here are, I don't yet think this crappy December matters.   

I'm a snowcover fan, so I'd rather have a 40" year with high number of snowcover days than have the entire winter concentrated into one 4-6 week epic blitz.   

Either way, anything would be better than what we got today.

I think in the city and western Nassau we have much more of an issue with urban heat island, it makes it harder to accumulate as much snow in March with the higher sun angle.  The last few Marches have been better, however we still haven't had anything in western LI or NYC to match the Boxing Day Blizzard or the early December 2003 blizzard for that matter.  In central and eastern LI the Equinox Snowstorm last year matched it though.  Once you get to the area around Farmingdale out to around Wading River or so, you guys do much better with late season events.  Even the south shore of Suffolk County out to about Westhampton or so does better than we do with late season events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

since 2000 Christmas week has seen its share of mild days with no chance of snow...it's possible this year could have a 60 degree temperature Christmas week and snow on Christmas eve...

2000.....cold last ten days of December...light snow before Christmas...heavy snow before New Years day...

2001.....51 degrees on 12/24...

2002.....snow Christmas afternoon...

2003.....56 degrees on 12/24...

2004.....59 on 12/23...

2005.....54 0n 12/25...55 on 12/24...

2006.....59 on 12/23...

2007.....61 on 12/23...

2008.....58 on 12/24...57 on 12/25...65 on 12/28...

2009.....54 on 12/26...2" on the ground Christmas morning from 12/20 11" snowfall...

2010.....heavy snow 12/26-27...

2011.....62 12/21...57 12/27...

2012.....rain and snow 12/24...

2013.....65 12/21...71 12/22...64 12/23...

2014.....62 12/25...

2015.....62 12/22...64 12/23...72 12/24...66 12/25...59 12/26...61 12/27...

2016.....50 12/25...60 12/27...

2017.....51 12/20...50 12/22

2018.....61 12/21

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1883 has to be the coldest snowiest pre Christmas on record...

day...max...min precip snowfall

19.....37.....22.....0.60".....4.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-20/ed-1/seq-5/

20.....24.....21........0

21.....29.....21.....0.35".....3.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-22/ed-1/seq-5/

22.....25.....10........0

23.....10......-1.....0.01".....0.1" started late on the 23rd...

24.....31.......7.....0.80".....7.4" ended during the day...est. snow cover at midnight...10-12"...

25.....31.....28.....0.38".....5.0" snowed 3pm to midnight...

26.....35.....25........0

27.....48.....30.....0.41

1883...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-5/

1883

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399969

1883 snowfall from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399973/

1883 snowfall in the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1883-12-26/ed-1/seq-1/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1883 has to be the coldest snowiest pre Christmas on record...

day...max...min precip snowfall

19.....37.....22.....0.60".....4.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-20/ed-1/seq-5/

20.....24.....21........0

21.....29.....21.....0.35".....3.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-22/ed-1/seq-5/

22.....25.....10........0

23.....10......-1.....0.01".....0.1" started late on the 23rd...

24.....31.......7.....0.80".....7.4" ended during the day...est. snow cover at midnight...10-12"...

25.....31.....28.....0.38".....5.0" snowed 3pm to midnight...

26.....35.....25........0

27.....48.....30.....0.41

1883...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-5/

1883

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399969

1883 snowfall from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399973/

1883 snowfall in the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1883-12-26/ed-1/seq-1/

Would you believe that back in 83 my car broke down and the mechanic told me the gas lines had frozen? Didn't think that was possible, I was a 22 year old kid so i bought it. I remember limping in the cold from a warehouse where I was a guard ( keeping watch over cabbage patch dolls, remember them? ) to some stranger's house and they took me right in so I could use the phone ( no cellphones! ) to call my dad. It was dangerously cold. This winter I dunno, warm Decembers like this, and a Nov snow, i'm not betting on a lot of snow. BUt the weather is freakish these days so nothing surprises me anymore. Just don't give me predictions of two feet of snow and I get 3-6 anymore. By my count we have had 4 or 5 of them in the past few years. Only one, Jan 2016 actually delivered, and that was basically all she wrote for that winter.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think in the city and western Nassau we have much more of an issue with urban heat island, it makes it harder to accumulate as much snow in March with the higher sun angle.  The last few Marches have been better, however we still haven't had anything in western LI or NYC to match the Boxing Day Blizzard or the early December 2003 blizzard for that matter.  In central and eastern LI the Equinox Snowstorm last year matched it though.  Once you get to the area around Farmingdale out to around Wading River or so, you guys do much better with late season events.  Even the south shore of Suffolk County out to about Westhampton or so does better than we do with late season events.

Jan 2016 in my neck of NJ was as big as Boxing Day, but not as windy IIRC. March was mostly a bust for us except for the very last storm, where we got somewhere in the realm of 8-10 after it snowed a total of 3-4 all day. March has never really delivered the goods in my neck of the woods. People really got emotional with me arguing this point last year but in the end I was right, backed up by Mitchel Volk himself. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Would you believe that back in 83 my car broke down and the mechanic told me the gas lines had frozen? Didn't think that was possible, I was a 22 year old kid so i bought it. I remember limping in the cold from a warehouse where I was a guard ( keeping watch over cabbage patch dolls, remember them? ) to some stranger's house and they took me right in so I could use the phone ( no cellphones! ) to call my dad. It was dangerously cold. This winter I dunno, warm Decembers like this, and a Nov snow, i'm not betting on a lot of snow. BUt the weather is freakish these days so nothing surprises me anymore. Just don't give me predictions of two feet of snow and I get 3-6 anymore. By my count we have had 4 or 5 of them in the past few years. Only one, Jan 2016 actually delivered, and that was basically all she wrote for that winter.....

Those early 80’s Christmas days were some of the most memorable. The NYC temperature extremes from 1979  to 1983 were very impressive.

Warmest Highs
1
2015
66°F
2
1889 & 1982
64°F

3
1940 & 2014
62°F
4
1979
61°F

5
1964
60°F

Coldest Lows
1
1980
-1°F

2
1872 & 1983
4°F

3
 
1914
11°F
4
 
1958
12°F
5
  1948 & 1968
13°F

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Those early 80’s Christmas days were some of the most memorable. The NYC temperature extremes from 1979  to 1983 were very impressive.

Warmest Highs
1
2015
66°F
2
1889 & 1982
64°F

3
1940 & 2014
62°F
4
1979
61°F

5
1964
60°F

Coldest Lows
1
1980
-1°F

2
1872 & 1983
4°F

3
 
1914
11°F
4
 
1958
12°F
5
  1948 & 1968
13°F

All that cold ended with the historic Jan 1985 Arctic outbreak, we didn't see that kind of cold again until Jan 1994 and the Jan 1985 outbreak was actually the more severe one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

FWIW, since I have been following this for a week anyway, the next 30 day breakdown from the fickle CFS is now   21BN   9AN.     This is the best 30 day outlook yet, but of course we have lost a week of potential cold since I started this.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/21/2018 at 8:16 AM, LibertyBell said:

It's basically cutting out 1/3 of winter.  So we have January and February left and they'd better be great lol.  We've had some snowy Marches lately, but I dont think NYC has seen a 12+ March snowstorm since the 60s.  I know we haven't here in western Nassau County.  December however has seen two 12+ snowstorms, including the 20" Boxing Day Blizzard.  It's prime snowstorm month, much moreso than March is, so wiping out December hurts.

 

I had 14” in wantagh with the 3rd March storm, and I’m south central Nassau. So you were with very close or made it. 

This weather is killing me. The November storm happened during my regular shift so no snowvertime. My management uses it as carpet that they dangle in front of me. “You guys do so well with snow”. Obviously it’s not something to be relied upon at 40 north. Eventually the dreaded snowless winter will come. I just hope it’s in the 60s when I’m retired. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...