weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, ny10019 said: The most frustrating part for me this year is the record-breaking cold (or hell, even just cold weather) with bright sunny skies and then 2+" of rain with highs in the 50's right afterwards. That is just evil. Yeah this does stink. Especially when you have to listen to the chorus of " better than that other stuff!" See, if you are an adult, there is tremendous peer pressure to hate snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: I think you are missing a few other "ratters" snow was rare around here Probably. Those are just the ones that rolled off the tongue. Some years had one good storm so I left them out; 95, 87, 83 to name a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 hours ago, TwcMan said: There’s about 60-70 days left to snow still. We’ll see if we can get anything. I’m a firm believer in it being possible still. in reality, the prime is about 3, maybe 4 more weeks. Chances go way down after that. Forget last year, most of the time if the winter was snowless March will be as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Probably. Those are just the ones that rolled off the tongue. Some years had one good storm so I left them out; 95, 87, 83 to name a few. I hear you--not trying to bust your chops I just have this nagging feeling that most younger people around here don't understand how lucky they are to have had the winters of the past 25 years. These have been great times for the snow lovers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: Bold call. Leaves zero margin for error, especially since we've already had more cold weather (fleeting or not) than those winters. Basically we have to bust out into spring in the next day or two and stay there (which would be like the mentioned winters). Not really a bold call and as likely, if not more, to be how it plays out. None of us knows the future; we could get a blizzard in April. But let's be real...After about Feb 20, I'd take a bet against anything big. But it would be a bet, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I hear you--not trying to bust your chops I just have this nagging feeling that most younger people around here don't understand how lucky they are to have had the winters of the past 25 years. These have been great times for the snow lovers Oh I didn't think you were busting my chops at all. One good thing about the lack of storms is some of the nastier posters have been absent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Oh I didn't think you were busting my jobs at all. One good thing about the lack of storms is some of the nastier posters have been absent. people get quite testy when they don't get their snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Oh I didn't think you were busting my jobs at all. One good thing about the lack of storms is some of the nastier posters have been absent. What I don't seem to understand is why people speak/forecast in absolutes. Weather is sooo unpredictable and changes so often--No idea why some people say things are going to happen. Hedge a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 hours ago, TwcMan said: I lived thru the 90’s. I remember 2”-4” events being a big deal. I’m not even mad at the fact that we can’t get a snowstorm if our lives depended on it this winter. What makes this worse than the other duds, is at least you knew those winters were gonna be duds ahead of time. This one is a huge tease. I’d rather know way before that we can’t get snow, rather than being teased. Also the “bad luck” moments happening at least twice when the pattern was conducive for snow, doesn’t make it any better. You only feel teased because you're a weather geek and know more than the average person around here. Most people only know it isn't snowing and they're hardly disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 I neither love nor hate snow, and I haven’t missed it at all. I greatly miss warm weather, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Cfa said: I neither love nor hate snow, and I haven’t missed it at all. I greatly miss warm weather, however. I’d take 2012 over this winter. That's fine, but I get concerned that we are heading into a permanent state like this at some point, and that will not be a good thing, because it will mean a lot of other bad things are going on as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No blocking so it all cuts...same ol same old this year Don Sutherland thinks blocking will develop soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: That's fine, but I get concerned that we are heading into a permanent state like this at some point, and that will not be a good thing, because it will mean a lot of other bad things are going on as well. I greatly miss warm weather as well--I have to admit though that I'm not concerned by one year of low snow totals. Things would have to change drastically to get my attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Don Sutherland thinks blocking will develop soon Not being a jerk ---hasn't he said this earlier this winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: I greatly miss warm weather as well--I have to admit though that I'm not concerned by one year of low snow totals. Things would have to change drastically to get my attention Me neither, but at some point this is going to be the norm. Things are changing drastically, but much of it is in the Arctic and Antarctic, where it is much more obvious to those who study there. A shorter cold season here and less snow one year isn't a pattern, but it isn't really just one year is it? How many winters are we going to see warm days in the 60's and 70's ? This has happened often, though not yet this year ( did we hit 60 the other day? ). RFK Jr. said when he was a kid, Alaska became a state, and so some Eskimos visited his home in VA during his uncle's presidency, and built them an igloo out of the snow. And it lasted a long time. This would be unthinkable today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Not being a jerk ---hasn't he said this earlier this winter? we've all been hearing about blocking etc for a long time, and nothing has changed. The safe bet would be to assume it won't come to fruition. Key word; bet. I have to say that or people will jump all over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: That's fine, but I get concerned that we are heading into a permanent state like this at some point, and that will not be a good thing, because it will mean a lot of other bad things are going on as well. For New Yorkers, coming off several years of good snows, a slow winter such as what we appear to be having would be more normal than another above average precipitation season. Only if it stays slow for the next five years would I'd start to be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 11 minutes ago, Cfa said: I neither love nor hate snow, and I haven’t missed it at all. I greatly miss warm weather, however. I’d take 2012 over this winter. I think you should consider moving south. there are so many places in the country where winters are milder, and some have better job prospects as well. I love the Atlanta suburbs, lots to do, nice housing for cheap, low taxes ( ok schools are not that great but their physical plant is far superior as they are newer ) and good weather. There are other reasons I wouldn't like living in the south, which I won't get into, and lack of snow would one of them but would be low on the list. But for younger people or retirees, there's little to recommend about most of the northeast. Unless you like winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 3 minutes ago, etudiant said: For New Yorkers, coming off several years of good snows, a slow winter such as what we appear to be having would be more normal than another above average precipitation season. Only if it stays slow for the next five years would I'd start to be concerned. I've seen that too in my lifetime, only for it to suddenly flip to snowy winters. So you never really know. Also, at 56, I can't afford to just throw 5 years to the wind. I'll be 61. I've had serious health issues and have lost a few friends already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Me neither, but at some point this is going to be the norm. Things are changing drastically, but much of it is in the Arctic and Antarctic, where it is much more obvious to those who study there. A shorter cold season here and less snow one year isn't a pattern, but it isn't really just one year is it? How many winters are we going to see warm days in the 60's and 70's ? This has happened often, though not yet this year ( did we hit 60 the other day? ). RFK Jr. said when he was a kid, Alaska became a state, and so some Eskimos visited his home in VA during his uncle's presidency, and built them an igloo out of the snow. And it lasted a long time. This would be unthinkable today. I really don't have the knowledge to answer this correctly--I don't know how many warm days we have had--Remember the old January thaws? As for the Arctic and Antarctic, earth has had 4 ice ages, beginning and ending before mankind was around. Each time without human intervention. I wonder how much of an influence we truly have 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I think you should consider moving south. there are so many places in the country where winters are milder, and some have better job prospects as well. I love the Atlanta suburbs, lots to do, nice housing for cheap, low taxes ( ok schools are not that great but their physical plant is far superior as they are newer ) and good weather. There are other reasons I wouldn't like living in the south, which I won't get into, and lack of snow would one of them but would be low on the list. But for younger people or retirees, there's little to recommend about most of the northeast. Unless you like winters. True--the Northeast is tough to justify when looking around the rest of the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I've seen that too in my lifetime, only for it to suddenly flip to snowy winters. So you never really know. One big storm changes everyone's perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just now, 495weatherguy said: I really don't have the knowledge to answer this correctly--I don't know how many warm days we have had--Remember the old January thaws? As for the Arctic and Antarctic, earth has had 4 ice ages, beginning and ending before mankind was around. Each time without human intervention. I wonder how much of an influence we truly have Put it this way. The people who spend their lives studying this stuff, and who have PhD's from places like Harvard and MIT, all agree this is caused by humans and is being accelerated. That's good enough for me. My own doctors don't have so much agreement on the role of cholesterol in heart disease. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Put it this way. The people who spend their lives studying this stuff, and who have PhD's from places like Harvard and MIT, all agree this is caused by humans and is being accelerated. That's good enough for me. My own doctors don't have so much agreement on the role of cholesterol in heart disease. I have my doubts about all of those experts as well. Im sure you remember when eggs were considered healthy for you, then bad, now depends on who you ask. I'm saying we don't really know for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 45 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Not being a jerk ---hasn't he said this earlier this winter? No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 39 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I have my doubts about all of those experts as well. Im sure you remember when eggs were considered healthy for you, then bad, now depends on who you ask. I'm saying we don't really know for sure Well, we do know for sure. We can demonstrate theoretically and experimentally that greenhouse gasses cause a warmer climate, and we've known about that causation for well over a century. The ice-age predictions from the '70s that people like to cite were nothing more than the hypothetical ramblings of a few fringe scientists (the consensus was roughly as strong then as it is now) that ended up on the cover of TIME because sensationalism sells copy, then as now. See here: https://xkcd.com/1732/. The concern isn't that the climate is warming again, but that it's doing so exponentially faster than previously in the planet's history. You can argue the specifics or even take the position that it's not practical or worth our while to combat the man-made components of climate change, but there is very literally better cross-disciplinary agreement on AGW than there is about the negative health affects of tobacco use. In general, science doesn't change nearly as quickly as people are led to believe by bungled media coverage. If you had stayed abreast of the peer-reviewed literature on the dietary merits of eggs, you would have noticed the body of knowledge expanding incrementally with each new study. There's no head scientist who gets up on Tuesday morning and alerts the media that Eggs Are Now Bad. 51 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I think you should consider moving south. there are so many places in the country where winters are milder, and some have better job prospects as well. I love the Atlanta suburbs, lots to do, nice housing for cheap, low taxes ( ok schools are not that great but their physical plant is far superior as they are newer ) and good weather. There are other reasons I wouldn't like living in the south, which I won't get into, and lack of snow would one of them but would be low on the list. But for younger people or retirees, there's little to recommend about most of the northeast. Unless you like winters. If I ever got a lobotomy and came out a warm-loving soul, I'd move to Greenville, SC. Great city with an extremely bright future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 Just got off the phone with my friend in Denver; a fellow weather geek. They've had less snow than NYC metro so far this year so I don't feel as bad as I did. However we both decided that life would be much easier if pleasant sunny days were our "thing". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 In general, science doesn't change nearly as quickly as people are led to believe by bungled media coverage. If you had stayed abreast of the peer-reviewed literature on the dietary merits of eggs, you would have noticed the body of knowledge expanding incrementally with each new study. There's no head scientist who gets up on Tuesday morning and alerts the media that Eggs Are Now Bad. How do you know that I haven’t stayed abreast of all peer reviewed literature? Please explain, in detail, the body of knowledge which is expanding incrementally with respect to cholesterol from eggs, for both good and bad cholesterol. How about the yolk? Or the interaction between the two 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: How do you know that I haven’t stayed abreast of all peer reviewed literature? Please explain, in detail, the body of knowledge which is expanding incrementally with respect to cholesterol from eggs, for both good and bad cholesterol. How about the yolk? Or the interaction between the two Patronizing and squarely off-topic. I guess that's what I get for being amicable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 27, 2019 Share Posted January 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Patronizing and squarely off-topic. I guess that's what I get for being amicable. I guess I was a bit harsh, but please don't act as though you are a victim or didn't come off as a bit snarky with your comment. You consider questioning whether or not I have read peer reviewed journals to be amicable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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