gravitylover Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Poor and quite premature call. 6 weeks of temps in the 50's last year then 4+ feet of snow in March or have you forgotten. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Poor and quite premature call. 6 weeks of temps in the 50's last year then 4+ feet of snow in March or have you forgotten. Correct No one should be declaring victory one way or the other with respect to this winter. There is still a lot of time left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Poor and quite premature call. 6 weeks of temps in the 50's last year then 4+ feet of snow in March or have you forgotten. I'll take the way under on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 15 minutes ago, Dan76 said: I'll take the way under on that. Probably but to call it over is wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Animal said: Calling this winter a bust. all the calls for a blockbuster winter were wrong. It's only January lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 hours ago, Animal said: Calling this winter a bust. all the calls for a blockbuster winter were wrong. I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...…….. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's only January lol to be fair it's near the end of January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's only January lol You said big January incoming now you’re punting to February.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...…….. And it happens, you know? It seems like every winter calls for cold and snowy, since that's what drives clicks and views. Some years, it's just going to be wrong. I wonder if there's a recency bias at play as well; essentially, if we don't get snow for the remainder of the winter, I wonder if next winter's long-term guidance will be "equal chances" or some other pedantic proclamation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...…….. That’s part of the disappointment thins year. The consensus was for a decent winter and here we are 2/3 of the way through met winter with close to nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 "Snow (It's just a week away)" Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones MJO is changing Phase 8 is on the way And now here's the blocking All the models say Snow, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Cold, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Ooh, see hour 240 On the Euro today 970 right at benchmark This pattern's gonna save the day Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's just a week away It's just a week away Snow, cold! It's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's gonna come some day It's gotta come some day Oh, this rain is threat'ning My sanity today I-If we hit 60 Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away Snow, children, it's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away Week away, week away... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 What a draaaag... this winters getting old.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Gravity Wave said: "Snow (It's just a week away)" Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones MJO is changing Phase 8 is on the way And now here's the blocking All the models say Snow, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Cold, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Ooh, see hour 240 On the Euro today 970 right at benchmark This pattern's gonna save the day Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's just a week away It's just a week away Snow, cold! It's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's gonna come some day It's gotta come some day Oh, this rain is threat'ning My sanity today I-If we hit 60 Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away Snow, children, it's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away Week away, week away... That’s terrific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: "Snow (It's just a week away)" Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones MJO is changing Phase 8 is on the way And now here's the blocking All the models say Snow, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Cold, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away Ooh, see hour 240 On the Euro today 970 right at benchmark This pattern's gonna save the day Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's just a week away It's just a week away Snow, cold! It's just two weeks away It's just two weeks away Snow, cold! It's gonna come some day It's gotta come some day Oh, this rain is threat'ning My sanity today I-If we hit 60 Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away Snow, children, it's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away It's just a month away I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away It's just a week away Week away, week away... Did you use quotes from Snow88 ? I can hear him singing that right now...……. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: New MJO Doesn’t seem to want to get to phase 8 this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, Brian5671 said: Doesn’t seem to want to get to phase 8 this year I deleted my post that's yesterdays seems when I enlarge it and copy it it shows yesterdays but here is the link to the page where the Jan 24th is: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Doesn’t seem to want to get to phase 8 this year Cod is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Meteorologist commits suicide---but not over bad forecasting: https://www.aol.com/article/entertainment/2018/12/13/fox-2-detroit-meteorologist-jessica-starr-commits-suicide-at-35/23617450/?utm_source=zergnet.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=zergnet_3624899&ncid=txtlnkusaolp00001361 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Doesn’t seem to want to get to phase 8 this year What was Jan 5 - 11 ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 40 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What was Jan 5 - 11 ? It was there but at low amplitude before crossing back over to its favorite position this winter 4-5. Would have been nice to see it run at stronger amplitude through 8-1-2. Today’s storm may not have been a 55 degree cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 hours ago, gravitylover said: Poor and quite premature call. 6 weeks of temps in the 50's last year then 4+ feet of snow in March or have you forgotten. As has been pointed out by others, not everyone had 4 feet of snow in March last year. I believe I had two events that actually produced snow, one was 4 inches when areas to the north had double digits, and the other was 10-11 inches. So around 14 for the month, not bad, but far from epic. We had a 3-5 event in April. In any case, lots of snow and big storms just aren't typical of March in the immediate metro. Checking in daily, still see nothing happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: As has been pointed out by others, not everyone had 4 feet of snow in March last year. I believe I had two events that actually produced snow, one was 4 inches when areas to the north had double digits, and the other was 10-11 inches. So around 14 for the month, not bad, but far from epic. We had a 3-5 event in April. In any case, lots of snow and big storms just aren't typical of March in the immediate metro. Checking in daily, still see nothing happening. Animal did and he is who I was responding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Animal did and he is who I was responding to. Ok, just wanted to put that out there. There's a lot of variability in this subforum. Some of my colleagues had 3 inches of snow Sunday, they live maybe 40 mins from me. We saw nothing but rain the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture! Wait... I thought the urban contingent hated snow retention because it just turns black and ugly after a half hour? That's always been the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Wait... I thought the urban contingent hated snow retention because it just turns black and ugly after a half hour? That's always been the narrative. That’s why we have to refresh it every couple of days ;-). But Central Park is nice covered in snow. But for the most of Manhattan snow just gets gross and turns crosswalks into deep water diving pools. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: That’s why we have to refresh it every couple of days ;-). But Central Park is nice covered in snow. But for the most of Manhattan snow just gets gross and turns crosswalks into deep water diving pools. Agree. NYC gets nasty 2 days post snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Caribou, Maine is the big 2010’s extreme snowfall winter for January. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-24-caribou-maine-all-time-snowiest-month-january-2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Caribou, Maine is the big 2010’s extreme snowfall winter for January. https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-24-caribou-maine-all-time-snowiest-month-january-2019 I love ME, am looking at lake houses there, but seriously, it isn't a place to be in winter, especially up there. That said, even parts of ME have had trouble getting enough snow in the 80's and 90's, according to my BIL, a lifer. He's complaining about snow this year though, again. Dude hates the snow. Hates NYC and NJ more, where he worked for many years. Tried FL, too hot. Can't make the guy happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 27 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I love ME, am looking at lake houses there, but seriously, it isn't a place to be in winter, especially up there. That said, even parts of ME have had trouble getting enough snow in the 80's and 90's, according to my BIL, a lifer. He's complaining about snow this year though, again. Dude hates the snow. Hates NYC and NJ more, where he worked for many years. Tried FL, too hot. Can't make the guy happy. That’s one of the few parts of the country to set an all-time state low temperature in the last 10 years. I can’t even imagine what -50 feels like. 2009 AROOSTOOK COUNTY... BIG BLACK RIVER -50 731 AM 1/16 USGS BBRM1 NINEMILE BRIDGE -48 841 AM 1/16 USGS NINM1 ALLAGASH -47 722 AM 1/16 COOP ALGM1 DICKEY -45 833 AM 1/16 USGS DICM1 LILLE -45 717 AM 1/16 AR034 MASARDIS -45 840 AM 1/16 USGS MASM1 CLAYTON LAKE -44 832 AM 1/16 COOP CLTM1 GRAND ISLE -44 722 AM 1/16 SPOTTER OXBOW -43 842 AM 1/16 COOP OXBM1 FORT KENT MILLS -41 853 AM 1/16 AR054 STOCKHOLM -41 717 AM 1/16 SPOTTER VAN BUREN -41 845 AM 1/16 COOP VANM1 EAGLE LAKE -40 902 AM 1/16 COOP EGLM1 FORT KENT -40 851 AM 1/16 COOP FISM1 FOX BROOK -40 835 AM 1/16 COOP FOXM1 PRESQUE ISLE -39 758 AM 1/16 AWOS KPQI LIMESTONE -38 917 AM 1/16 COOP LIZM1 CARIBOU WFO -37 718 AM 1/16 ASOS KCAR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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