Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

[David-LI]

GFS gone?

[Juliancolton]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

All I said was I prefer snowstorms over cold & dry as do most weenies. The majority of the public hates both.

The only thing people on here care about is whether or not it'll snow. 

Yeah there are industries that cater to cold & warm weather, what does that have to do with anything.

You said, "The last cold shot [...] had nothing to show for it." I explained why that was false. You may only care about snow, but the vast majority here track and appreciate a variety of weather conditions.

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

To me winters get their good grades through sustained snow cover. I need at least 60 days in the mid November through April 1  period with snow cover or the winter is a bust IMO. The last 2 winters I've gone over that, 67 days last year and 84 days the year before. This winter I'm at 9 days, that's a sh!tty winter, at least so far.

One big storm that melts within the week would not help much, at least from my perspective.

You are in a much colder climate than most people in the metro area.  up in the Newberg area you could have snow on the ground that sticks around even in marginal temperatures . Not so in the 5 boros. Most people think of 2015 and 16 as featuring the largest snowstorm ever… But it was gone Very quickly because it was a ridiculously warm winter.

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, frankdp23 said:

One team that won the toss was victorious, the other lost.  Rule is fine.  Play defense, Rams did.  Chiefs gave up 3 3rd and 10s in OT.  Terrible D.

Then why would a team NEVER decide to kick off in OT if the win the toss?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

Sorry

 

sounds like it’s been a terrible winter for you

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

I hear you.  Local landscapers here who depend on snow removal are hurting.  

[Dan76]

29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

Do you own a business for snow? I work for a big company that does luckily I have other work.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

29 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Do you own a business for snow? I work for a big company that does luckily I have other work.

No, I work as a groundskeeper at a major university on the uws. Snow is big big money for me. And this year the lack there of is killing me

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

I am sorry to read about your injury. I hope you recover quickly. Hopefully, February will wind up being snowy.

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, David-LI said:

GFS gone?

Jan 23: NOAA data downloads are very slow today, resulting in model delays. I'm working to retrieve the data.

[WarrenCtyWx]

The cold hasn't really been anything to write home about either, save for Monday. Locally it's actually been rather warm, generally speaking. I'd be more content with the relatively snowless winter if it were accompanied by less rain and more sunshine.

[Snowshack]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

Sorry to hear about your fall.  Agreed, it will be hard to avoid at least a modest event or two. (hopefully ones you can make some money from).   The 2000's have really been feast or famine.   Only five of the 18 years at BNL had below normal snowfall and four of those five were 11" or less.    We may be tracking toward one of those...

The 70 yr avg at BNL is 33", so when you see half of the 2000's winters featuring 50" or more it really does feel like feast or famine lately.

2000	2001	51.2
2001	2002	5.5
2002	2003	62.1
2003	2004	60.2
2004	2005	78.5
2005	2006	30.5
2006	2007	9.5
2007	2008	11.5
2008	2009	43
2009	2010	67.8
2010	2011	61.5
2011	2012	5.5
2012	2013	51.8
2013	2014	57.5
2014	2015	62.2
2015	2016	35.9
2016	2017	42.1
2017	2018	55.2

[CIK62]

EURO/GFS have multiple consecutive sub-zero Highs!!! for Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Detroit et al.    Gee, I believe we never stayed below zero for an entire day even.  I think +2 does it.   It is only 10 degrees colder in Chicago than it is here, so -8 might be the record lowest high there, though the mid-west has more potential than we do.

Anyone know what the records are for these cities visa-vee all time lows and sub-zero highs.    Gonna listen to a local News Radio Station and see if any historical info is being given along with the forecasts.      I bet these numbers mellow out upon approach.

Thank You Bluewave.    The 1983 Christmas time temperatures seems most like the late Jan. potential shown.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

EURO/GFS have multiple consecutive sub-zero Highs!!! for Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Detroit et al.    Gee, I believe we never stayed below zero for an entire day ever.  I think +2 does it.   It is only 10 degrees colder in Chicago than it is here, so -8 might be the record lowest high there, though the mid-west has more potential than we do.

Anyone know what the records are for these cities visa-vee all time lows and sub-zero highs.    Gonna listen to a local News Radio Station and see if any historical info is being given along with the forecasts.      I bet these numbers mellow out upon approach.

Chicago is one of the few US big cities were all-time cold records were set in the early 80’s to 90’s.

Lowest min.......-27.......1985

Lowest max.......-11........1994....1983

NYC

Lowest min..........-15......1934

Lowest max...........2........1917

 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

My heart attack and subsequent complications are pretty high on the list too. 

[rclab]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

My heart attack and subsequent complications are pretty high on the list too. 

G.L. I loved your reply. It dragged me right out of a self absorbed state. As the old saying goes ( after the slap ) Thank you, I needed that.  As always ......

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think it would take an incredible amount of bad luck to make it through feb without at least one advisory level event for the coast. I would put the chances of that happening at less then 10%.

This winter has really really gotten me down. First I break my collar bone on solid ice (created by the awul pattern). And then I’m being crushed  financially with a lack of snow removal money. So if anyone really has a reason to be down on this winter it’s me. 

Maybe you could look into driving an oil truck. My dad used to do that in winter when construction slowed,and a lot of deckhands in Atl highlands used to do it in winter. Not as many people have oil heat today, but might something to look at. Good luck.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

 

Thank You Bluewave.    

NYC may have dipped to -10 from the late 70’s to the early 90’s if the winds were more favorable. Seems like most of our major Arctic outbreaks during those years came on westerly winds. That 1934 event was on N to NW winds down the Hudson Valley. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I am sorry to read about your injury. I hope you recover quickly. Hopefully, February will wind up being snowy.

Thanks Don. I tend to agree that feb produces at least normal snow. This winter is nothing like 01/02 or 11/12. It’s been a string of bad luck. When DC is crushing NYC and even BOS. 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

There's always the option to quit whinging and take up one of the many hobbies that avail of cold weather. Off the top of my head, I know ice climbers, ice fishermen, ice yachters, skaters, photographers, ski resort employees, and ski resort patrons who have all benefited wonderfully from the winter weather of the sort that you might expect from the northern states in the middle of January. Together, all those relatively small interest groups amass a formidable collective.

Further to all that, we need cold to snow. You'd never sign off on +10F for the rest of met. winter, as you know it would all but preclude the possibility of a big snowfall.

although extreme cold tends to also be dry and suppress storms, so I think the ideal pattern is for it to be *just* cold enough to snow, a la 2009-10

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, frankdp23 said:

One team that won the toss was victorious, the other lost.  Rule is fine.  Play defense, Rams did.  Chiefs gave up 3 3rd and 10s in OT.  Terrible D.

point is that a coin toss shouldnt decide who gets the ball.  Let that be part of the homefield advantage or give each team one possession and then sudden death.  The Patriots Defense is just as horrible.

 

[LibertyBell]

17 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Anybody else not all gloom and doom about this winter?

Frankly, despite the lack of snow, I am enjoying the consistent cold and almost no extreme warmth that was featured in our last few winters.

Other than the 2 weeks around the Holidays, most of this winter from Nov onward has been surprisingly seasonal or BN...something we haven’t seen in a long time.

If I never save another 60 or 70 during winter months, I would be happy!

well its bad for heating bills lol.... I like seeing the snow fall and it can stick around for a few days but after that it just looks dirty so I dont mind mild weather a few days after it snows and before the next snow fall.

My ideal winters are 1995-96 and 2002-03

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2019 at 8:45 PM, IrishRob17 said:

It’s your bad only if you were responsible for that cutoff. Otherwise, I hope you enjoyed your 34”. 

hey we all get our big snowstorms and they seem to be different for people in different parts of the region.  I'm just glad I got to see at least one 30" snowstorm in my life.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/22/2019 at 8:40 AM, NycStormChaser said:

Have no idea how I missed that. Have to learn to have coffee before Interneting. That's really a shame. I'd imagine them getting rid of wunderground website over the years as well too which would suck. They already got rid of the blog section which I always enjoyed reading. I still think AccuWeather is a worse company though

oh it is, I used to go to Accuweather before I discovered weather forums, what got me away from Accuweather is JB constantly tooting his own horn and spinning his own weather forecasts in 2001-02;  once that winter went into the **** so did my Accuweather subscription lol

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, CIK62 said:

EURO/GFS have multiple consecutive sub-zero Highs!!! for Chicago, Milwaukee, Minneapolis and Detroit et al.    Gee, I believe we never stayed below zero for an entire day even.  I think +2 does it.   It is only 10 degrees colder in Chicago than it is here, so -8 might be the record lowest high there, though the mid-west has more potential than we do.

Anyone know what the records are for these cities visa-vee all time lows and sub-zero highs.    Gonna listen to a local News Radio Station and see if any historical info is being given along with the forecasts.      I bet these numbers mellow out upon approach.

Thank You Bluewave.    The 1983 Christmas time temperatures seems most like the late Jan. potential shown.

Christmas 1980 was colder.

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

Chicago is one of the few US big cities were all-time cold records were set in the early 80’s to 90’s.

Lowest min.......-27.......1985

Lowest max.......-11........1994....1983

NYC

Lowest min..........-15......1934

Lowest max...........2........1917

 

Chicago also had their record highest temp in the 1990s didn't they (106, which happened twice in 1995?)

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks Don. I tend to agree that feb produces at least normal snow. This winter is nothing like 01/02 or 11/12. It’s been a string of bad luck. When DC is crushing NYC and even BOS. 

DC used to get much more snow than they do now- they also had more snow than NY in 1987-88 and 1989-90

It was colder back then and less snowy lol.

 

[ILoveWinter]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks Don. I tend to agree that feb produces at least normal snow. This winter is nothing like 01/02 or 11/12. It’s been a string of bad luck. When DC is crushing NYC and even BOS. 

As anomalous as its been for us it's even more so for Boston considering their annual average, plus they didn't benefit from the November surprise.

[Animal]

Calling this winter a bust.

all the calls for a blockbuster winter were wrong.