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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

hahaha.  Just awful.  Especially with the poor modeling back then-many forecasts of snow and then you'd wake up to rain or nothing at all.   We did have some impressive arctic shots...

I distinctly remember going to bed one night (circa 1990/1991/1992) after Al Roker telling me we could expect 4-8" of snow... and waking up to see it was lightly drizzling and approximately 38 degrees. These things stay with you.

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In regard to the 70s and 80s, and really until 1994, the only winter that actually delivered a substantial seasonal snowfall was 77-78. To put things further into perspective, that was the only winter in Central Park with a seasonal snowfall greater than even thirty inches from 1970 to 1994. From the perspective of someone born in 1993, this seems almost mind-boggling considering recent trends.  

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the whole northeast over a foot of snow except NYC , surrounding areas and coastal sne.

Smfh

Always hate seeing those maps where the entire NE is snowcovered and we're looking at bare ground.   Usually I shoot to the Adirondacks during this kind of situation, but traveling home from there Sunday will be tough.

Theres still time and good prospects for a fun period this winter, but any chance of this year being remembered favorably is toast for me.

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47 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's fine I've also pointed out numerous times how the HV may be in line for a catastrophic ice event. There is also a N&W thread for this situation. There's been, and always has been unrealistic wishcast posters who can freely post nonsense so long as its snowy and get by. I would also love a crippling blizzard  it that's going to have to wait for a different season or year.

I get it. The only reason tony hasnt been banned yet again is because me and rjay are burned out from having to deal with the same bs over and over again....im sure as rjay is done puking he’ll handle it. Right @Rjay?

 

but that doesnt mean any discussion has to automatically move to the interior thread 3 days before an event. Thats not how it works and that isnt why the thread was created...it was essentially created to help alleviate the whining by certain people when inland was getting snow while the coast was raining (back when that used to happen, seems a rare occurance these days), or when orange county whiffed and the city cashed in (heh weird, dont remember anyone asking for a city specific thread for those types of storms, but i digress). But for the discussion about impending storms, overall pattern, etc, this is a forumwide thread, always has been. Hence the annoyance when those complaining about the wish-casters are literally doing the exact same thing as those they are complaining about. It almost seems as if the more one posts about the exact same thing over and over, people here think theyll win an award or something. The “its gonna be rain, always has been rain, ive said it 8 times” its literally JUST as annoying as “itll create its own cold air! Gfas sucks at 2m temps”. 

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12 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Euro has the whole northeast over a foot of snow except NYC , surrounding areas and coastal sne.

Smfh

it probably wont be right either.  The worst part is we had two suppression events that should have made it up here.  So as of now, it's a better winter in DC than in NYC, which was also true in the 80s.

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12 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think we get our revenge in February. Allot of sold guys going all in. I’ll run with that

our revenge on who though? you mean our own personal blizzard where we get over two feet of snow while those to our south and north both get shafted haha?  

I think we could have something like February 2013 so let me know if this would be enough to salvage winter for you.

There is one historic snowstorm, but it's focused in SNE and perhaps Suffolk County, with NYC and Nassau County changing over to snow after first getting rain.  Suffolk County could get two feet, while NYC and Nassau County get about a foot of snow.

And then one more storm either in late February or early March of about the same magnitude as the storm we had in November.

Enough to get this winter to average snowfall or slightly above average perhaps, but nothing more.

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13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Complete and utter Bs. This is exactly why I have been staying away from this board recently. 

Waaaaa waaaaaa winters over. Get real

its because if people dont get a historic snow season they automatically oscillate towards thinking there wont be any snow lol.  This should at least be an average snow season if we get the type of February we're supposed to have, remember we already have 6 inches of snow in the bank and we need less than 2 feet of snowfall for the rest of the season to make average.

People in coastal areas and the city should be happy if we make 30 inches of snowfall as our seasonal snowfall total, regardless of any predictions, because thats the highest one should expect to get in this area.

 

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13 hours ago, Snow88 said:

The ****ing polar vortex squashed the last 2 storms but it can't help us this weekend ?

 

**** this winter. Might be the worse ever.

The thing that really fascinates me about this winter is it reminds me so much of the 80s and early 90s.  We didnt have internet back then or even weather maps to look at lol, so I always wondered what teleconnections, MJO, etc, happened back then to make those winters better for those who were both south and north of us even though they were several degrees colder than the winters we have now.  So maybe this winter will answer that question.

 

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12 hours ago, North and West said:

So at least you remember the lousy late 1990s winters, They were softened at least by the knowledge that we had two amazing winters in the mid-1990s, and we were paying the bill for them.

lol funny thing is I dont remember the late 90s winters at all, outside of the Fools Day bust because I was so happy with 93-94 and especially 95-96 that my appetite for snow was sated for awhile.  The next time I got really interested in snow was 2000-01 which was a good season that ended badly with March 2001 and then the big 2001-02 bust which was supposed to be a great season.  But 2002-03 happened after that which was second only to 1995-96 so I was happy again and then a long stretch of good to very good winters began with only minor interruptions after that (like 2006-07 and 2007-08 and 2008-09 which was salvaged by the March event and 2011-12).

 

The weather boards have definitely enhanced my interest in a more scientific way rather than just trying to root for big snows (or big heat in the summer).

 

 

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14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

its because if people dont get a historic snow season they automatically oscillate towards thinking there wont be any snow lol.  This should at least be an average snow season if we get the type of February we're supposed to have, remember we already have 6 inches of snow in the bank and we need less than 2 feet of snowfall for the rest of the season to make average.

People in coastal areas and the city should be happy if we make 30 inches of snowfall as our seasonal snowfall total, regardless of any predictions, because thats the highest one should expect to get in this area.

 

My main point is calling winter over in mid January is nuts. Our climatologically snowiest month hasn’t happened. Throw in the fact that it’s an El Niño which are generally back half winters and great weeklies. I’m not saying a big February is a given but I would be shocked if we do not at least see average that month. Even though some think the incoming cold is wasted it’s not for the coast. It knocks down water temps. Good things are coming. And I still think this weekend has more frozen then people are expecting from Nw Nassau on Nw

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My main point is calling winter over in mid January is nuts. Our climatologically snowiest month hasn’t happened. Throw in the fact that it’s an El Niño which are generally back half winters and great weeklies. I’m not saying a big February is a given but I would be shocked if we do not at least see average that month. Even though some think the incoming cold is wasted it’s not for the coast. It knocks down water temps. Good things are coming. And I still think this weekend has more frozen then people are expecting from Nw Nassau on Nw

I wouldn't be surprised if we get 20 inches of snow in February.  I dont think we'll get 30 but 20 is definitely possible.  Also, January isn't over yet, even after the weekend storm and the possible cutter midweek next week, there is still a chance to sneak in a snowstorm before the month ends.  And there's also a decent chance of getting one significant snow storm in March so all in all, we have about 8 weeks to get to average or above snowfall.  We could do it in one snow storm......

 

 

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With the 0.6 inches of snow recorded in Central Park today this now leaves NYC needing 31.2 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will).

The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019

October......0.1
November....0.5
December....5.0
January.......8.9
February....10.8
March.........4.9
April...........0.4

Seasonal Avg..30.7

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