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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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5 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

I prioritize closeups of the moon very low on my list of "must-get" shots. If you have a planetary imaging scope with an equivalent focal length of like 3000mm, along with an observatory-grade guided tracking mount, you can do them very well. Failing that, we all just blend in with the torrent of grainy pepperonis on facebook next morning. Wide angles and foreground context ftw.

Yes I definitely like wide images within the context of a nice background much more.  3000mm will fill the frame with the moon.  Some of the new superzoom cameras do really well on lunar eclipses too (they use a newer type of sensor called BSI that does better with higher ISO).

I have an equatorial mount, but when you live in a place with light pollution, longest single exposures are limited to around 15 seconds or so, anything above that must be achieved through stacking.

 

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4 hours ago, Parsley said:

Happy after the eagles loss. :P

Happy New Year. Hope all is well. We need Snow ASAP. 

Happy new year man.   All is well.  I hope everything is good with you too.  I miss all the fence pics.  

And f the Eagles!

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I have my own scale lol, I do it in increments of 4 inches since that also corresponds well with the metric system since 4 inches = 100mm

SEC 4-8

MECS 8-16

HECS 16-32

BECS 32 +

Feb 1978 and Feb 1983 were both 18" snowstorms at NYC and both are considered historic.

Jan 2016 was borderline BECS since it was 31" at JFK

 

But it's not mutually exlcusive!  A 16" storm can be a MECS or HECS and an 8" storm can be a SECS or MECS.

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6 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

But it's not mutually exlcusive!  A 16" storm can be a MECS or HECS and an 8" storm can be a SECS or MECS.

ha yes! I lopped off the decimals in that scale, it should be more like the lower range ends at 15.9 and the higher range begins at 16.0 (for example)

 

so SECS 4.0-7.9  MECS 8.0-15.9 HECS 16.0-31.9 BECS 32.0+

 

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I find it interesting that Team Torch were the predominant posters throughout the snowless first half of Met Winter, disappear over the weekend when the models trended cold and snowy/icy for next weekend then all of a sudden reappear magically when the models start torching again.  Like clockwork

In any event, nobody should be declaring anything snow or not 5-6 days in advance. As we know all too well, the models will flip flop the next several days (windshield wiper effect) so in other words, lets check back in on Thursday. The signal is there for a big storm, that's all we know at this point.

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41 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I find it interesting that Team Torch were the predominant posters throughout the snowless first half of Met Winter, disappear over the weekend when the models trended cold and snowy/icy for next weekend then all of a sudden reappear magically when the models start torching again.  Like clockwork

In any event, nobody should be declaring anything snow or not 5-6 days in advance. As we know all too well, the models will flip flop the next several days (windshield wiper effect) so in other words, lets check back in on Thursday. The signal is there for a big storm, that's all we know at this point.

Ha! The Adventures of Team Torch™ and The Snow Squad™

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56 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I find it interesting that Team Torch were the predominant posters throughout the snowless first half of Met Winter, disappear over the weekend when the models trended cold and snowy/icy for next weekend then all of a sudden reappear magically when the models start torching again.  Like clockwork

It's probably a grand conspiracy architected specifically to injure the sensibilities of people who enjoy snow. No chance that folks simply spend more time offline during their days off.

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7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

It's probably a grand conspiracy architected specifically to injure the sensibilities of people who enjoy snow. No chance that folks simply spend more time offline during their days off.

The same posters were posting on their "days off" during the warm times.  I've browsed this forum for enough years to know the tendencies of certain posters.  It's no big deal, everybody has their biases, but I just found it interesting is all and am just having some fun with it. No harm no foul

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What I'm seeing moving forward is really bad for the rest of winter. It really looks like the MJO will be a repeat of 2nd half Dec/early Jan and that's terrible news. 

The Nino is also dying out with very little effects on our pattern. If there's no snow by Feb 5 with nothing on the immediate horizon then this winter is a wrap.

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31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What I'm seeing moving forward is really bad for the rest of winter. It really looks like the MJO will be a repeat of 2nd half Dec/early Jan and that's terrible news. 

The Nino is also dying out with very little effects on our pattern. If there's no snow by Feb 5 with nothing on the immediate horizon then this winter is a wrap.

Highly unlikely we get nothing in January and february. An epic winter may be off the table but one good storm's all I want anyway

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15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Highly unlikely we get nothing in January and february. An epic winter may be off the table but one good storm's all I want anyway

It'll probably be like an 80s winter. Trough axis ends up too far west but there's still the polar influence to the north.

This equals wet to cold, rinse & repeat. The only thing to offset that would be -NAO blocking. It's something the GEFS keeps showing 10+ days out only to fall apart as we get closer.

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Hi folks...I am back here again because I just cannot take that "other" board. The overreliance on indexes and phases and long term pattern change talk not to mention the condescending tones and I know it all attitudes there have led me back to here. I just want to get discussion on the two events coming up.....and finally found a place that will discuss them without having to sift through post after post about pattern changes......thank you

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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

What I'm seeing moving forward is really bad for the rest of winter. It really looks like the MJO will be a repeat of 2nd half Dec/early Jan and that's terrible news. 

The Nino is also dying out with very little effects on our pattern. If there's no snow by Feb 5 with nothing on the immediate horizon then this winter is a wrap.

Look more closely

 

5 hours ago, David-LI said:

The storm thread is unbearable. Low is not even formed in the Pacific yet and people are debating if it's cutting or riding the coast. I can't take it.

 

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Par for the course. And I've seen much worse

You guys have no idea how many posts have been hidden.  It's impossible to keep up with when the mods have full time jobs. 

 

1 hour ago, TwcMan said:

This winter has been a disaster for the NYC area so far. Seems like we can’t win no matter what happens. We’ll see how things go for the second half of winter. 2014-15 didn’t get going until Jan 25th that year.

I truly believe it's coming.  

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

2001-02 and 2011-12 were supposed to flip to cold and snowy as well. Sometimes it's just not in the cards.

How often could one be wrong predicting that? It's like a "cold reading" from a psychic....you can't really go wrong....like John Edwards the so called medium...." it was hard at the end, something in the chest area, there was trouble breathing.." yeah, there usually is at the end " I'm seeing an older male..." of course because everyone has lost someone, probably an older male ( grandfather, dad, uncle )  and " there was a dog or cat" yeah somewhere in the family " and the cat is there with him on the other side" of course it is....." I'm seeing a letter, J..." ( because most people know an older male named Joe, Jim, John, whatever, who has died, ( of course if the dead could talk to someone you'd think they'd say hey it's John here....) anyway, predictions of cold and snowy crop up every winter. I'll give you a prediction right now; summer will be hot and muggy. I could be wrong, not every summer is, but you get the idea....

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