LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 This is what we need- it can snow all it wants to Friday, Saturday, Monday, etc. But Sunday night we want completely clear skies from 11:41 PM to 12:43 AM Monday morning. Just checked wunderground and they have rain from Friday to Saturday, changing to snow Saturday afternoon and then snow from then right through Monday morning, total of 7-14 inches! For Mt Pocono they have all snow from Friday through Monday morning, total of 11-19 inches! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Post day 10 gfs op run.. Late Feb 2010 part Deux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, Rjay said: Post day 10 gfs op run.. Late Feb 2010 part Deux What could go wrong? Lock it up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 30 degrees and cold here in the north Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Nam shows a bit of snow for nyc Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 3 hours ago, Rjay said: Post day 10 gfs op run.. Late Feb 2010 part Deux Oh goody more rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 Oh goody more rain We need it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This is what we need- it can snow all it wants to Friday, Saturday, Monday, etc. But Sunday night we want completely clear skies from 11:41 PM to 12:43 AM Monday morning. This is basically what transpired during the last total lunar eclipse in this area in September '15. This 4-hour exposure I did shows the progression of cloudcover nicely... you can see the illuminated overcast at the beginning of the eclipse yielding to clear skies at totality, before clouds started building again toward the end of partial eclipse (the missing slivers in the moon trail) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12, 2019 Share Posted January 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: This is basically what transpired during the last total lunar eclipse in this area in September '15. This 4-hour exposure I did shows the progression of cloudcover nicely... you can see the illuminated overcast at the beginning of the eclipse yielding to clear skies at totality, before clouds started building again toward the end of partial eclipse (the missing slivers in the moon trail) I remember that, it cleared just in time for totality and the time of night this one is happening is very similar. You really need to crank up the ISO when imaging total lunar eclipses to make sure there is no motion blur with the moon (unless you use really short focal lengths), if doing a tele shot I keep it at 3200 if doing a wide shot it's at 800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 No recognition of the type of pattern we are entering by many. It might not end up producing but the potential has a high ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: No recognition of the type of pattern we are entering by many. It might not end up producing but the potential has a high ceiling. But we cant trust the models so why discuss it. Or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Anyone have the mean from 21z srefs for Central Park I know you guys hate srefs but I’m hoping for a quick inch at the Park ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, BxEngine said: But we cant trust the models so why discuss it. Or something. Wx-board poison. The whole point is to discuss these things. Yes, take OP runs at this range with a grain of salt but the ensembles all have a solid storm signal that can't be ignored. The pattern supports multiple opportunities for significant winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: might not end up producing but the potential has a high ceiling. Sounds like my college years 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Anyone have the mean from 21z srefs for Central Park I know you guys hate srefs but I’m hoping for a quick inch at the Park ? It's ridiculous. Until something else suppprts it I would keep my expectations extemely low. I think it's around 5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: I would keep my expectations extemely low. This also sounds like my college years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's ridiculous. Until something else suppprts it I would keep my expectations extemely low. I think it's around 5". Yeah now I know why they’re useless lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wx-board poison. The whole point is to discuss these things. Yes, take OP runs at this range with a grain of salt but the ensembles all have a solid storm signal that can't be ignored. The pattern supports multiple opportunities for significant winter weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. More than half the excitement actually comes from discussing the possibilities, whether they work out or not. Things actually get a little less exciting when you know what the outcome will be, even if the outcome is a snowy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I remember that, it cleared just in time for totality and the time of night this one is happening is very similar. You really need to crank up the ISO when imaging total lunar eclipses to make sure there is no motion blur with the moon (unless you use really short focal lengths), if doing a tele shot I keep it at 3200 if doing a wide shot it's at 800. I prioritize closeups of the moon very low on my list of "must-get" shots. If you have a planetary imaging scope with an equivalent focal length of like 3000mm, along with an observatory-grade guided tracking mount, you can do them very well. Failing that, we all just blend in with the torrent of grainy pepperonis on facebook next morning. Wide angles and foreground context ftw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I prioritize closeups of the moon very low on my list of "must-get" shots. If you have a planetary imaging scope with an equivalent focal length of like 3000mm, along with an observatory-grade guided tracking mount, you can do them very well. Failing that, we all just blend in with the torrent of grainy pepperonis on facebook next morning. Wide angles and foreground context ftw. Moon was the only word here above 3 letters i understood. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 13 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Moon was the only word here above 3 letters i understood. Yeah, “mount” can have various meanings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yeah, “mount” can have various meanings. Luckily, Revolutionary history can shed light on most of life's ambiguities. http://boston1775.blogspot.com/2009/07/nailing-down-mount-whoredom.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Nyc is saturated now and those snow showers should reach the ground in like an hr or so west of nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Not sure I'd be comfortable assuming column saturation at 30/11F, but that's why they don't pay me the big bucks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 7 hours ago, North and West said: We need it. . ?? You apparently haven't seen the overflow dams up here still running strongly. When it pops above freezing and the ground surface thaws it will still be muddy. We don't need more rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 15 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Not sure I'd be comfortable assuming column saturation at 30/11F, but that's why they don't pay me the big bucks. Haha, yeah it’s going to be tuff. Not to mention rates look super light. Flurries for hours will not amount to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 22 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Not sure I'd be comfortable assuming column saturation at 30/11F, but that's why they don't pay me the big bucks. The soundings aren’t terribly dry below 8-10,000 feet. Many places might start snowing once they get their cloud decks lowered to 5-6,000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 Hey I just checked out the gfs para and it shows how the next two threats after this particular storm that’s hitting dc great) could both kinda work out for us. It shows snow for the first threat and than snow to ice back to snow and the clown maps are just that but these high pressures are hard to break. Although I do think this storm system happening right now is strong but not as strong as modeled. It’s a bit warmer than what it’s depicting on the models. I’m expecting at least a dusting in New York City tonight into tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 13, 2019 Share Posted January 13, 2019 SREF’s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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