NEG NAO Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 2 hours ago, BxEngine said: You mean we’ll delete more 384 hr maps from the same people complaining about day 9 maps? That seems unfair. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 Europe is the place to be this week if you like winter weather. https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081218727545393155 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081203678357393408 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081313104900837376 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081331985849696256 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081589939006001154 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081586170184765440 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081495560761344000 https://mobile.twitter.com/severeweatherEU/status/1081392382577426438 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 The Sierras look good to me, 3-6 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The Sierras look good to me, 3-6 feet. Theyre much taller than that dude 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 12 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Theyre much taller than that dude Well played, well played indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 At Mountain Creek. shocked but not surprised... handful of people on the slopes today. Chatting it up with the bar tenders. WOW is all I can say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 36 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: The Sierras look good to me, 3-6 feet. 4 ft is a good dump. 6 ft is awsome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 Doesn’t feel like winter. Hasn’t snowed in what, 45 days? I’m already ready for summer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 winter will say hello when it's time to say goodbye...still waiting for the winter's lowest AO...I think it comes in February or March...last year was in early March... season.......ao min.....date...…………...weather around the date... 1949-50......-2.854.....3/15/50......1.4" 3/14...record cold the beginning of the month... 1950-51......-4.353.....12/27/50....3" snow 12/27 and 9 degrees...the biggest snow and coldest temperature of the winter... 1951-52......-3.805.....3/4/1952....4" snow 3/2... 1952-53......-3.766.....12/27/52....12 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season...4" snow 12/31... 1953-54......-3.495.....1/30/54......cold continues...Cold snowy January... 1954-55......-3.064.....1/4/55........ 1955-56......-4.564.....2/15/56......1.4" 2/17 and 2/22...Big March snows..... 1956-57......-4.473.....2/21/57......2.6" snow 3/1... 1957-58......-4.030.....3/11/58......snow storms 3/14 and 3/21... 1958-59......-4.026.....1/7/59....... 1959-60......-4.108.....1/28/60......18 degrees 2/3 is the coldest temp for Feb...Big March cold and snow... 1960-61......-2.719.....1/10/61......greatest snowy and cold period followed 1/15-2/12... 1961-62......-4.417.....3/4/62........record cold 3/2 and the Ash Wednesday storm 3/6... 1962-63......-5.010.....1/21/63......Near record cold 1/23 and 4" snow 1/26...Biggest snow of the season... 1963-64......-4.470.....12/20/63....1.4" 12/18...6.6" 12/23-24...11 degrees 12/20 coldest for that month...January Blizzard... 1964-65......-3.973.....1/26/65......ice storm 1/24 and continued cold... 1965-66......-5.130.....1/28/66......8 degrees is the coldest temp. of the season 1/28...storm 7" on 1/30... 1966-67......-4.147.....12/13/66....wet snow and rain 12/13-14 is the start of two weeks of snow and cold...7" snow 12/24-25... 1967-68......-3.490.....2/7/68........8 degrees 2/11...Cold and dry continues... 1968-69......-5.282.....2/13/69......17 degrees 2/17 is the coldest temp for the month...15" of snow 2/9-10.... 1969-70......-6.365.....3/5/70........20 degrees 3/10 coldest temp for the month...4" of snow 3/29... 1970-71......-2.821.....2/6/71........12 degrees max 2/2... 1972-73......-2.044.....12/17/72...24 degrees max 12/17... 1973-74......-2.792.....12/19/73...big ice storm 12/16-17...17 degrees 12/19 is the coldest temp of the month... 1974-75......-1.695.....12/18/74... 1975-76......-3.262.....1/24/76......-1 degrees 1/23 is the coldest temp of the winter...1" of snow 1/23... 1976-77......-7.433.....1/15/77......-2 degrees on the 17th is the coldest temp of the winter...5" snow 1/14-15... 1977-78......-5.291.....2/5/78........10 degrees 2/5 is the coldest temperature of the season...18" snow 2/6-7... 1978-79......-4.387.....1/25/79......Very cold and snowy February.... 1979-80......-3.705.....1/24/80...... 1980-81......-4.318.....3/4/81........largest snowfall for the winter...8.6" 3/5... 1981-82......-3.804.....12/30/81...January 1982 was very cold and snowy... 1982-83......-3.410.....2/6/83........4" of snow 2/6 and 18" 2/11-12... 1983-84......-3.706.....3/13/84......record cold 3/10...7" snow 3/8-9... 1984-85......-6.226.....1/19/85.....-2 degrees 1/21 is the coldest temperature that winter... 1985-86......-3.894......2/6/86.......4.5" of snow 2/7 and 2/11...Snowiest period of the winter... 1986-87......-3.507.....3/9/87........2" snow 3/12...Near record cold 3/10... 1987-88......-2.314.....2/28/88......0.6" 2/27 is the last measurable snow...Thawing after... 1988-89......-0.318.....3/4/89........2.5" 3/6 and near record cold 3/7... 1989-90......-3.482.....12/10/89...One of the coldest Decembers on record... 1990-91......-3.381.....3/9/91.......24 degrees 3/12...benign after that... 1991-92......-2.597.....12/4/91.....0.7" 12/5...benign after that... 1992-93......-2.228.....3/2/93.......Super storm 3/13...Near record cold followed... 1993-94......-3.503.....2/24/94.....2.6" 2/23...12 degrees 2/27.... 1994-95......-3.116.....3/9/95.......20 degrees 3/10 is the coldest temp for the month.... 1995-96......-4.353.....12/19/95...8" of snow during a very cold period...January blizzard. 1996-97......-3.377.....12/30/96...11 degrees New Years Day.... 1997-98......-4.269.....1/10/98.....14 degrees New Years day...Coldest of the winter... 1998-99......-3.856.....3/10/99......5" snow 3/14-15...17 degrees 3/8 is the coldest temp for the month... 1999-00......-2.118.....2/18/00......3" snow and ice 2/22.. 2000-01......-4.854.....2/25/01......6" snow 2/22 and 17 degrees...coldest for the month... 2001-02......-3.293.....12/28/01...Coldest period of the winter followed but benign... 2002-03......-3.575.....1/22/03......7 degrees 1/24 is the coldest for the winter... 2003-04......-4.387.....1/17/04......1 degree 1/16 is the coldest temp of the season...6" of snow 1/15...Dec. 2004-05......-4.337.....2/26/05......6" of snow 2/25 and 8" 2/29... 2005-06......-3.569.....12/5/05......2" snow 12/4...1" 2/6 and 6" 12/9...14 degrees 12/14 is the coldest temp of the season... 2006-07......-2.184.....2/4/07........8 degrees 2/5 is the coldest for the winter... 2007-08......-2.468.....1/2/08........12 degrees 1/3 second coldest of the winter... 2008-09......-3.178.....2/3/09........4.3" 2/5 12 degrees... 2009-10......-5.821.....12/21/09...11" snow 12/19-20....16 degrees 12/18 is the coldest for the month... 2010-11......-5.172.....12/18/10...20" of snow 12/26-27...23 max on 12/14.. 2011-12......-3.451.....01/28/12...4.3" of snow 1/21...Biggest of the season... 2012-13......-5.688.....03/20/13...3.0" of snow 3/18 and continued cold... 2013-14......-2.605.....01/27/14...5 degrees 1/22...11" of snow 1/21...21 max 1/28... 2014-15......-1.462.....03/19/15...4.5" of snow March 20th... 2015-16......-4.898.....01/16/16...first measurable snow 1/17...27" blizzard 1/23...largest ever... 2016-17......-2.228.....02/14/17...9.4" of snow 2/9...largest of the year... 2017-18......-4.426.....03/02/18...noreasters 3/3...trace to 1"windy..3/7...3-8"...3/21...8-12"... 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NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 9 hours ago, psv88 said: Doesn’t feel like winter. Hasn’t snowed in what, 45 days? I’m already ready for summer. today is day 52 since the last snowfall greater then a trace - after many of last nights model runs many weenies will be jumping ship again...………….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: today is day 52 since the last snowfall greater then a trace - after many of last nights model runs many weenies will be jumping ship again...………….. looks like a cold/dry warm/wet pattern that many of us who are familiar with from the 80s and early 90s know all too well before we go el nino crazy recall that none of the el ninos from that time period were snowy outside of the one massive event we had in Feb 1983 which was in a far stronger el nino than this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: looks like a cold/dry warm/wet pattern that many of us who are familiar with from the 80s and early 90s know all too well before we go el nino crazy recall that none of the el ninos from that time period were snowy outside of the one massive event we had in Feb 1983 which was in a far stronger el nino than this one 86-87 was the other snowy El Niño from the 1980’s. Atlantic City had 33”. I believe portions of Monmouth and Northern Ocean had 40”. Maybe some posters from that area can add some details. BNL our out on LI had 35”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: 86-87 was the other snowy El Niño from the 1980’s. Atlantic City had 33”. I believe portions of Monmouth and Northern Ocean had 40”. Maybe some posters from that area can add some details. BNL our out on LI had 35”. I remember we had that one moderate snowstorm in January (it was considered really big back then lol) but the heaviest snows went just to our south. I remember that being a theme in the 80s- storms missed us just to the south or just to the north. I used to listen to different cities' weather forecasts on the radio back then and it amazed me how much more snow DC and Baltimore were getting back then compared to our much smaller snowfalls. Speaking of Monmouth County, they were jackpotting back then too, in that winter I believe they got 55"! We had about half that just 20 miles north of there lol. The following season we had the Vet Day snowstorm that did the same thing, both those south and north of us got clobbered while we got 1-2" lol. Feb 1989 hit the coast south of us hard while we smoked virga all day busting a prediction of 6-8" and in Dec 1989 during our coldest Dec in 70 years we busted a forecast of 6-8 inches of snow again because the secondary formed too close to the coast and snow quickly changed to thunder and rain. DC did well that month too. There's certainly been a role reversal if you look at DCs snowfalls from the 80s and compare it to what they get now and then compare NYCs from the 80s and now. NYC never even had a 30" snowfall season between 1978-79 and 1992-93 and now they have been averaged over 30" for the last two decades- that hasn't happened since the late 1800s or early 1900s! Meanwhile DC barely gets any snow anymore. I expect us to be in that pattern by 2050 or 2100 (when most of us will no longer be around.) By the way have you looked at this site, it uses MIT data for where our climate will be in 2050, it does individual cities, I was pleasantly surprised to see Valley Stream was included in the list! They do temps (highs/lows) and avg precip by month for the whole year and average it out for the 30 yr period centered around 2050 and compare it to the 30 yr period that just ended in 2018. https://www.vox.com/a/weather-climate-change-us-cities-global-warming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember we had that one moderate snowstorm in January (it was considered really big back then lol) but the heaviest snows went just to our south. I remember that being a theme in the 80s- storms missed us just to the south or just to the north. I used to listen to different cities' weather forecasts on the radio back then and it amazed me how much more snow DC and Baltimore were getting back then compared to our much smaller snowfalls. There's certainly been a role reversal if you look at DCs snowfalls from the 80s and compare it to what they get now and then compare NYCs from the 80s and now. NYC never even had a 30" snowfall season between 1978-79 and 1992-93 and now they have been averaged over 30" for the last two decades- that hasn't happened since the late 1800s or early 1900s! Meanwhile DC barely gets any snow anymore. I expect us to be in that pattern by 2050 or 2100 (when most of us will no longer be around.) By the way have you looked at this site, it uses MIT data for where our climate will be in 2050, it does individual cities, I was pleasantly surprised to see Valley Stream was included in the list! They do temps (highs/lows) and avg precip by month for the whole year and average it out for the 30 yr period centered around 2050 and compare it to the 30 yr period that just ended in 2018. https://www.vox.com/a/weather-climate-change-us-cities-global-warming The amount of snow we have received in the last 25 years or so is remarkable What happened to all of the optimism for a pattern change yesterday? My desire for a short winter is obvious, yet it is on January 6th. Things can change in either direction quickly. We just have to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: The amount of snow we have received in the last 25 years or so is remarkable What happened to all of the optimism for a pattern change yesterday? My desire for a short winter is obvious, yet it is on January 6th. Things can change in either direction quickly. We just have to wait and see I think there's going to be a lot of short term yoyoing until the pattern actually changes. It probably wont happen consistently until after the big supermoon total eclipse on the night of the 20th. I just hope it's clear that night and it can snow as much as it wants after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I remember we had that one moderate snowstorm in January (it was considered really big back then lol) but the heaviest snows went just to our south. I remember that being a theme in the 80s- storms missed us just to the south or just to the north. I used to listen to different cities' weather forecasts on the radio back then and it amazed me how much more snow DC and Baltimore were getting back then compared to our much smaller snowfalls. There's certainly been a role reversal if you look at DCs snowfalls from the 80s and compare it to what they get now and then compare NYCs from the 80s and now. NYC never even had a 30" snowfall season between 1978-79 and 1992-93 and now they have been averaged over 30" for the last two decades- that hasn't happened since the late 1800s or early 1900s! Meanwhile DC barely gets any snow anymore. I expect us to be in that pattern by 2050 or 2100 (when most of us will no longer be around.) By the way have you looked at this site, it uses MIT data for where our climate will be in 2050, it does individual cities, I was pleasantly surprised to see Valley Stream was included in the list! They do temps (highs/lows) and avg precip by month for the whole year and average it out for the 30 yr period centered around 2050 and compare it to the 30 yr period that just ended in 2018. https://www.vox.com/a/weather-climate-change-us-cities-global-warming Interesting. The only winter month that has been impacted negatively from rising temperatures so far has been December. We just can’t seem to get it to snow when the temperature averages close to 40. We even got that nice snowstorm during February 2017 when it averaged close to 40 degrees. We also don’t have a problem with snowy Marches near 40 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Interesting. The only winter month that has been impacted negatively from rising temperatures so far has been December. We just can’t seem to get it to snow when the temperature averages close to 40. We even got that nice snowstorm during February 2017 when it averaged close to 40 degrees. We also don’t have a problem with snowy Marches near 40 degrees. Because of higher precipitation we do get more snow right now even with the milder winters, but I thought February temps have been rising also? I thought January was the only month not having significantly warmer monthly averages. Have you also noticed that our biggest snowstorms have recently migrated from mid Feb to late Jan lol. Might be just a short term thing but I dont remember us having any HECS in January before 1996 (I dont remember 1978 just that it snowed a lot), and since 2005 or so we have had a ton of HECS in January. Chris, the lack of snow in 40 degree Decembers might be because of the fact that you need early season cold to lower the nearby SST. By February and March the SST are already colder but if you have a December averaging around 40 degrees, the SST may still be around 50 degrees for most of the month. In March UHI matters more for urban areas so that eats into their snowfall totals some compared to let's say Suffolk County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: today is day 52 since the last snowfall greater then a trace - after many of last nights model runs many weenies will be jumping ship again...………….. everyone was spiking the football 2 days ago based on day 10-15 runs of op models....it's like no one has learned anything during this period...need to see it move up to the 6-10 day range before jumping on board.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: looks like a cold/dry warm/wet pattern that many of us who are familiar with from the 80s and early 90s know all too well before we go el nino crazy recall that none of the el ninos from that time period were snowy outside of the one massive event we had in Feb 1983 which was in a far stronger el nino than this one this year is even worse than most of the 80's winters....I wonder what the record is for latest snowfall during met Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)? most stations are at zero or trace for met winter.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: this year is even worse than most of the 80's winters....I wonder what the record is for latest snowfall during met Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)? most stations are at zero or trace for met winter.... you have to admit that after all of the recent above normal snowfall seasons - we are due for a clunker - BUT it is impossible to predict if it will be this one ………. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 6, 2019 Share Posted January 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: this year is even worse than most of the 80's winters....I wonder what the record is for latest snowfall during met Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)? most stations are at zero or trace for met winter.... 2006-07 had no snow until January 19th in central park 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: this year is even worse than most of the 80's winters....I wonder what the record is for latest snowfall during met Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)? most stations are at zero or trace for met winter.... One thing for sure I remember it being a lot colder during the 80s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 I'm reading about the1913-14 winter...it was an el nino year...it got a very late start...from mid Feb to mid March NYC got almost 40" of snow including two major storms. ..1913 was a wetyear...similar 2018...I'm putting together a recap of that winter with old newspaper stories...I should be finished by next week... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 5 hours ago, uncle W said: I'm reading about the1913-14 winter...it was an el nino year...it got a very late start...from mid Feb to mid March NYC got almost 40" of snow including two major storms. ..1913 was a wetyear...similar 2018...I'm putting together a recap of that winter with old newspaper stories...I should be finished by next week... Didnt that year have some sort of "superstorm" in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 53 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Ugh. ditto - that about sums it up...……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 22 hours ago, Brian5671 said: everyone was spiking the football 2 days ago based on day 10-15 runs of op models....it's like no one has learned anything during this period...need to see it move up to the 6-10 day range before jumping on board.... this weekends threat is for real most models showing it in one form or another - and for several model runs in a row - plus its in the medium range………….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Ugh. A sad day for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: If you leave off the November snowstorm, then the 12/1 to 1/7 meteorological winter snowfall is near the bottom of the list for NYC. 1 2012-01-07 0.0 0 - 2007-01-07 0.0 0 - 1871-01-07 0.0 0 4 2019-01-07 T 1 - 2016-01-07 T 0 - 2000-01-07 T 0 - 1998-01-07 T 0 - 1997-01-07 T 0 - 1995-01-07 T 0 - 1973-01-07 T 0 - 1966-01-07 T 0 - 1889-01-07 T 0 - 1886-01-07 T 0 14 1975-01-07 0.1 0 Yea, though it feels like we've been due for this, right? I know it doesn't make statistical sense and the atmosphere doesn't work like that, but it feels like we've needed something to balance it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted January 7, 2019 Share Posted January 7, 2019 25 minutes ago, North and West said: Yea, though it feels like we've been due for this, right? I know it doesn't make statistical sense and the atmosphere doesn't work like that, but it feels like we've needed something to balance it out. I agree---We have had such blockbuster winters recently it does seem as though there would be a "balancing out" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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