LibertyBell Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Any idea what LGA, JFK and EWR recorded? Definitely got an inch or slightly more here in SW Nassau County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 JB again warned the next 60 days will see the greatest HDD totals in history for eastern US and western Europe combined. Will repeat this on Neil Cavuto Show at about 12:45pm today, he mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 45 minutes ago, CIK62 said: JB again warned the next 60 days will see the greatest HDD totals in history for eastern US and western Europe combined. Will repeat this on Neil Cavuto Show at about 12:45pm today, he mentioned. HDD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, North and West said: HDD? Heating Degree Days. He means there are going to be way below normal temperatures, almost w/o breaks. 5 minutes ago, North and West said: HDD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, CIK62 said: Gracias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: JB again warned the next 60 days will see the greatest HDD totals in history for eastern US and western Europe combined. Will repeat this on Neil Cavuto Show at about 12:45pm today, he mentioned. Bold call especially with how things have gone. He's going to need to cold to hit and stay (not like Monday's shot which is in and out in a 36 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bold call especially with how things have gone. He's going to need to cold to hit and stay (not like Monday's shot which is in and out in a 36 hrs) The most notable change is that the Pacific will look far more favorable than anything we've seen so far. Thus I buy the cold. Also keep an eye on the 25th, very pretty PNA setup with a low in the SE. It's easily the best setup I've seen all winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 44 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Bold call especially with how things have gone. He's going to need to cold to hit and stay (not like Monday's shot which is in and out in a 36 hrs) He might be right. Everyone is on board with an epic end of January through march. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Any idea what LGA, JFK and EWR recorded? Definitely got an inch or slightly more here in SW Nassau County. Snowfall totals from today: BDR: 0.5" EWR: 0.3" ISP: 0.7" JFK: 0.5" LGA: 0.3" NYC: 0.5" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Adjusted from this morning when I erroneously reported 0.6 inches fell in Central Park. Thank you Don. With the 0.5 inches of snow recorded in Central Park today this now leaves NYC needing 31.3 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will). The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019 October......0.1 November....0.5 December....5.0 January.......8.9 February....10.8 March.........4.9 April...........0.4 Seasonal Avg..30.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Why do people listen to JB? I really don’t get it. His whole MO is all cold all the time. Well so far his winter forecast has been garbage. Even with the extreme cold coming, as others mentioned it is in Andy out in 36 hours. Then much of the week looks to be in he 30s and 40s. We may even approach 50 on Thursday. We will see what happens in February, but that is one out of three meteorological winter months. I surely do not think it will completely erase the positive anomaly we have this meteorological winter season, but I hope to be wrong. Even a frigid February will likely just bring us to ‘normal’. It would almost need to be historically cold to get us below average for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This winter is admittedly starting to get to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 27 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: This winter is admittedly starting to get to me. Ditto. I spent entirely too mich time this week looking at model runs for what amounts to a few inches of slop. We have been spoiled the last five to 10 years (cumulatively). I grew up in Atlanta a snow lover so I have definitely been spoiled up here and became complacent. Hell, I use to videotape TWC local forecasts when they were calling for 2” of snow in Atlanta (circa 1980s and 1990s). All in all what we get starting middle of next week through February will be well appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A couple of very cold days and then Wednesday and Thursday warmer with showers. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, snowheavyattimes said: A couple of very cold days and then Wednesday and Thursday warmer with showers. Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Pattern looks very good a week from today and could last 6-8 weeks. MJO influence collapses and the Pacific jet goes away. Also Jan's temperature departures could drop to 0 or even BN with the cold shots coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I think there is a lot of looking for things that arent there in this forum. If this plays out as forecast, it will be a mostly mix/rain event for city...which was exactly what was forcast on various models on Tuesday and Wed and Thurs and a good chunk of the day today. Everytime there was a good run, guys latched onto it and discarded all the bad runs prior and after. Too much emotion involved looking for something that likely isnt there. I hope tomorrow is a snowy day...but if it is, it is dumb luck with a more southerly track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I think there is a lot of looking for things that arent there in this forum. If this plays out as forecast, it will be a mostly mix/rain event for city...which was exactly what was forcast on various models on Tuesday and Wed and Thurs and a good chunk of the day today. Everytime there was a good run, guys latched onto it and discarded all the bad runs prior and after. Too much emotion involved looking for something that likely isnt there. I hope tomorrow is a snowy day...but if it is, it is dumb luck with a more southerly track. Because it snowed in november when it wasnt supposed to so of course this was going to be a repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The curse of Pammy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks very good a week from today and could last 6-8 weeks. MJO influence collapses and the Pacific jet goes away. Also Jan's temperature departures could drop to 0 or even BN with the cold shots coming through. Hope you’re right. Love snowstorms. I want to get NAMed at least once this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Adjusted from this morning when I erroneously reported 0.6 inches fell in Central Park. Thank you Don. With the 0.5 inches of snow recorded in Central Park today this now leaves NYC needing 31.3 inches of snow between now and December 31 2020 to reach a 30.0 year average for snowfall when the new 30 year averages come out in Jan 2021. The average would now be 29.0 inches if no more snow fell for the next two years (never happened and hopefully never will). The current monthly averages for NYC for Jan 1991-Jan 2019 October......0.1 November....0.5 December....5.0 January.......8.9 February....10.8 March.........4.9 April...........0.4 Seasonal Avg..30.7 Is that how the 30 year averages work? Weird that they do snowfall averages by cutting off snowfall totals after a third of a winter. Honestly, I hate the way our calendar works, they picked January 1st for the beginning of the New Year for no scientific reason. If it was up to me the first day of the year would be the first day of Fall lol. That way both summer and winter would neatly be classified into single years rather than overlapping ones and since it never snows in September here, our snow seasons would be all in one year too. I guess our tropical seasons would still overlap but oh well, you have to give up something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Snowfall totals from today: BDR: 0.5" EWR: 0.3" ISP: 0.7" JFK: 0.5" LGA: 0.3" NYC: 0.5" Thank You Don, it was still snowing here til the sun came out- around 10 AM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Pattern looks very good a week from today and could last 6-8 weeks. MJO influence collapses and the Pacific jet goes away. Also Jan's temperature departures could drop to 0 or even BN with the cold shots coming through. Unfortunately I’m a bit concerned as DT is in his video earlier tonight that we may end up with suppression and or inland track problems continuing. The suppression may happen during the individual outbreaks of arctic air and when they relax the trof axis may largely be too far west and the guidance still has some disagreements on the -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Unfortunately I’m a bit concerned as DT is in his video earlier tonight that we may end up with suppression and or inland track problems continuing. The suppression may happen during the individual outbreaks of arctic air and when they relax the trof axis may largely be too far west and the guidance still has some disagreements on the -NAO. I am too, that happened in the 80s a lot. No one has really answered this question, aside from "luck" what is the real reason that is region is so vulnerable to being caught between suppression/fringed and inland/hugger tracks? Is there something unique about NYC area geography that makes it so? And why did we see that much more in the 80s than we see today, even though the 80s were a lot colder. By the way, my prediction is we will get less frozen precip than the 0.5" we saw last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 We’re getting more than an inch of snow guarantee you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 When should we start a new thread for our next rainstorm for the middle of next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NWS map has the whole northeast getting at least a foot of snow except for NYC and coastal sne and the surrounding areas. What a disaster this winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The NWS map has the whole northeast getting at least a foot of snow except for NYC and coastal sne and the surrounding areas. What a disaster this winter has been. Yeah I just want to know what kind of processes causes the suppression/fringe and hugger/runner scenario, because thats what we've had this winter and that's what we used to have almost every winter until things changed during around 2002 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Is that how the 30 year averages work? Weird that they do snowfall averages by cutting off snowfall totals after a third of a winter. Honestly, I hate the way our calendar works, they picked January 1st for the beginning of the New Year for no scientific reason. If it was up to me the first day of the year would be the first day of Fall lol. That way both summer and winter would neatly be classified into single years rather than overlapping ones and since it never snows in September here, our snow seasons would be all in one year too. I guess our tropical seasons would still overlap but oh well, you have to give up something. It is a little odd for snowfall averages but their thinking is they want all averages closed on a calendar year basis. For 30 year snowfall averages running from July 1 of the first year to June 30 of the last year may have been another way they could have gone, but then for temperature data your splitting up summer in the first and last years of the 30 year averages. It all even out over the decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Unfortunately I’m a bit concerned as DT is in his video earlier tonight that we may end up with suppression and or inland track problems continuing. The suppression may happen during the individual outbreaks of arctic air and when they relax the trof axis may largely be too far west and the guidance still has some disagreements on the -NAO. I think we'll get something from a few Miller Bs, that seems like the pattern depicted on the ensembles. As Bluewave pointed out, the 2010s have been an all or nothing decade with little snow in the first half of the season and heavy snows after Jan 15 especially in Nino seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 If we get no snow the public will deem this another bust by forecasters due to the constant hype all week by the media. Eventually we'll get hit but people won't believe its coming for real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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