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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

How often could one be wrong predicting that? It's like a "cold reading" from a psychic....you can't really go wrong....like John Edwards the so called medium...." it was hard at the end, something in the chest area, there was trouble breathing.." yeah, there usually is at the end " I'm seeing an older male..." of course because everyone has lost someone, probably an older male ( grandfather, dad, uncle )  and " there was a dog or cat" yeah somewhere in the family " and the cat is there with him on the other side" of course it is....." I'm seeing a letter, J..." ( because most people know an older male named Joe, Jim, John, whatever, who has died, ( of course if the dead could talk to someone you'd think they'd say hey it's John here....) anyway, predictions of cold and snowy crop up every winter. I'll give you a prediction right now; summer will be hot and muggy. I could be wrong, not every summer is, but you get the idea....

As it applies to the coastal plain or five boroughs, well said. ......  As always

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9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

how come no storm thread for the 17th - 18th event ? There is a chance some areas see more accumulation from this event then the weekends which IMO that thread was started too early ….

namconus_asnow_neus_28.png

Go big or go home lol. I still think we should open a thread for a 1-2 inches why not this way we separate the discussions.

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3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Go big or go home lol. I still think we should open a thread for a 1-2 inches why not this way we separate the discussions.

that 1 or 2 inches will probably cause more problems on a Friday morning then what ever falls over the weekend unless the flash freeze happens Sunday night and causes problems for Monday mornings rush hour although the schools will be closed Monday for the holiday...…..

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

that 1 or 2 inches will probably cause more problems on a Friday morning then what ever falls over the weekend unless the flash freeze happens Sunday night and causes problems for Monday mornings rush hour although the schools will be closed Monday for the holiday...…..

I can’t wait I’m hoping for a big coastal and all snow could happen! Ukmet and thunder are on board!

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10 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That looks like an exact copy of Dec 15 through early Jan. 

Pretty much says this winter will be a dud. Amazing if the only measurable snowfall this season ends up being in November.

 

27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs is frigid in the LR and I buy it. The Pacific will be radically different than what we've seen. 

The polar vortex may enter the lower 48 for a time. 

Sigh...

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I meant it'll be a copy for non-snow events. Cold & snow are two separate things.

The cold will also comes in once the MJO swings past phase 6. 

For at least the first half of February we will have legit high latitude blocking and fresh arctic air to work with.   I'll take my chances. 

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9 hours ago, Rjay said:

For at least the first half of February we will have legit high latitude blocking and fresh arctic air to work with.   I'll take my chances. 

I would be more optimistic if the el nino was stronger and could overcome everything else, thats usually a good signal for a big snowstorm in the late Jan-early Feb time period.

I mean it's still possible, but we could also have an 2006-07 like evolution.  February was -7 that winter and all we got were ice storms lol.

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8 hours ago, snowheavyattimes said:

No problem getting measurable snow in mid-November but we can’t buy a snowstorm in mid-January. This hobby sucks.

I think we should fund geoengineering projects that would freeze both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (at least at our latitudes) and solve both the climate change problem and our snow drought.  I wonder what it would take to cause a human-made induced ice age?

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Storm thread analysis:

Latest (insert model) run shows slightly less ideal solution, proclamations of storm is dead, winter is cancelled:

rwEdw6N.gif 

(Intermittent banter about overreactions/bad analysis of model output)

15 minutes later, latest (insert model) run shows slightly more ideal solution:

FrankShadyErne-size_restricted.gif 

 

Rinse, repeat. 

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My head is hurting. I can't determine from the posts on the storm thread if we're getting the storm Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. I can't determine if we're getting snow, freezing rain, sleet or rain. Are our temps going below freezing or hitting 60? Whatever happened to good old fashioned play by play from one dedicated poster who knew how to analyze the models?

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Storm thread analysis:
Latest (insert model) run shows slightly less ideal solution, proclamations of storm is dead, winter is cancelled:
rwEdw6N.gif&key=d923a0737c99dc75fdc2498ef8b98bffbd31a05d9acf5477560b762bd8e09c24 
(Intermittent banter about overreactions/bad analysis of model output)
15 minutes later, latest (insert model) run shows slightly more ideal solution:
FrankShadyErne-size_restricted.gif&key=6ae98fc28e3de62e818511b86e1bde45b9a6a404f79be9875ded38527e4c2200 
 
Rinse, repeat. 

Every year, same thing.


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