Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

That was some winter.  In addition to the storms you noted, we did have a few misses as well.  I recall that it seemed as though there was always a storm threat

Yes- I was going to put 2010-11 in the list too but oh wait, that was only a 5 week winter lol.  Maybe we will get something like that again, but in reverse (towards the backend rather than the front end).

We had two historic 20" snowstorms in those 5 weeks plus one major (10") snowstorm plus sustained cold to keep it all from melting!

 

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes- I was going to put 2010-11 in the list too but oh wait, that was only a 5 week winter lol.  Maybe we will get something like that again, but in reverse (towards the backend rather than the front end).

We had two historic 20" snowstorms in those 5 weeks plus one major (10") snowstorm plus sustained cold to keep it all from melting!

 

True—I have this feeling that this winter is going to be snow challenged however.   Some years (especially recently) is just seems to want to snow, other years it’s impossible to get snow on Long Island 

[SnoSki14]

4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

True—I have this feeling that this winter is going to be snow challenged however.   Some years (especially recently) is just seems to want to snow, other years it’s impossible to get snow on Long Island 

The fact that the models keep pushing things back is a concern, but maybe it's because they're rushing any pattern change.

So far the winter pattern has followed the MJO to a tee. If it does get into phase 7/8, then we'll likely see the models respond in jest. 

[dmillz25]

The worry is hiliarious lol

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

The worry is hiliarious lol

Why is it hilarious?  Does the weather always follow our predictions?  Haven’t we been told of incoming storms/heat/calm weather only to have things change seemingly on a dime?  

I am in no way as skilled at meteorology as you are, but I do recognize that nothing is certain.  Patterns and expectations change

[dmillz25]

12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Why is it hilarious?  Does the weather always follow our predictions?  Haven’t we been told of incoming storms/heat/calm weather only to have things change seemingly on a dime?  

I am in no way as skilled at meteorology as you are, but I do recognize that nothing is certain.  Patterns and expectations change

Everything is going according to plan. For about a month now some of the most knowledgeable people have been saying Early to mid January will improve and eventually become great. Just got to be patient. The mid November storm made things worse as well

[495weatherguy]

17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Everything is going according to plan. For about a month now some of the most knowledgeable people have been saying Early to mid January will improve and eventually become great. Just got to be patient. The mid November storm made things worse as well

I hear what you are saying.  I cannot and will not dispute the “plan”.  All I am saying is didn’t we have a winter not too long ago when the popular phrase was “a week away” with respect to a pattern change.

Nothing is certain when it comes to weather  

 

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Here is a discussion from John Homeuk (earthlight) in regards to the upcoming month

 

Wanted to provide some brief discussion here to touch base on my initial thoughts from a few weeks ago. Since that time, we have seen a few key things occur:

 

1) The MJO amplitude continues to adjust and most reliable ensemble guidance is struggling (this includes the ECMWF)

2) There have been a few more "head-fakes" in regards to a snowy/cold pattern in the Eastern US in very late December and very early January

3) The SSW has begun and will continue over the next several days, leading to a major change in the stratosphere

 

All of these things fall in line with initial discussion from a few weeks ago. The gradual process that was discussed is underway, and the seeds are in place for the development of a colder/snowier pattern in the Eastern United States by the middle part of January. In the next 72 hours a large Siberian high will descend southward and the development of a deep Aleutian low will develop as an EAMT event gets underway. This is the first warning shot of the changing pattern, especially in the Northern Pacific Ocean. 

 

Most guidance is in good agreement that by the New Year (time frame beginning 1/1), an elongated ridge will be in place across the Western United States and into parts of British Columbia. This will be the first "attempt" at a more favorable pattern while most  hemispheric forcing is still on the periphery of favorable stages. There is the potential for a transient system impacting the Eastern US with wintry weather during this time frame. The overall progression of the waveguide here is still in the developmental stages. Note: There may very well be a period of moderation near 1/5 across the Central (perhaps Eastern?) USA as the entire pattern "snaps" back to support the development of an even more noteworthy WNHEM ridge. Do not panic.

 

 

The more notable developments come during the time frame after 1/7, as the MJO/AAM (among many other things) begin having a major impact and the pattern can really start to dig its heels in. It is not a coincidence that guidance is suggesting the poleward propagation of a large ridge into British Columbia during this time frame. The potential for colder than normal air and stormy conditions should really begin to crescendo once we approach 1/15 as the subtropical jet begins to extend once again. 

 

All of this will be somewhat modulated by the Atlantic side of things, which looks increasingly likely to feature a UK ridge that builds gradually westward toward the NAO regions as wave breaking events continue. It remains to be seen exactly how well these two features (the poleward Pac ridge and tropospheric blocking in the Atlantic) are able to harmonize, but they eventually will. The window for that begins from 1/15 and continues to the end of the month in my opinion. 

 

The stratospheric "happenings" will likely only serve to exacerbate the potential for blocking and cold, but it remains to be seen exactly how effectively the downwelling process occurs. There is increasing confidence in a major SSW and the downwelling effects should at least begin by 1/7 with some increased support for a secondary W2 event. This lends credence to the idea that high latitude blocking in the Atlantic could begin to crescendo by late January, with ridging making further inroads toward Greenland and the Davis Strait with the development of a -NAM state. 

 

 

To wrap it up...my thoughts remain unchanged overall. The seeds are in place for the development of a colder and snowier pattern in the Eastern US, with the crescendo toward this pattern really building toward 1/15 and the threats continuing thereafter. We are really just beginning to watch the most important parts of the evolution toward a more favorable pattern.

 

The harmony of poleward Pacific ridging and Atlantic blocking may reach a peak in the third week of January, which is when I suspect we may begin to start talking about a very significant winter storm. 

 

Thanks.   I appreciate this.  It still seems as though a lot of pieces have to be working in unison

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

I hear what you are saying.  I cannot and will not dispute the “plan”.  All I am saying is didn’t we have a winter not too long ago when the popular phrase was “a week away” with respect to a pattern change.

Nothing is certain when it comes to weather  

 

Last winter. For 7 weeks, it was a week away. It did eventually come though.

 

patience is a virtue...

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Everything is going according to plan. For about a month now some of the most knowledgeable people have been saying Early to mid January will improve and eventually become great. Just got to be patient. The mid November storm made things worse as well

No lol if it wasnt for that mid November snowstorm we would be shut out for the winter.  Going into January with only a T of snowfall is pretty ominous.  

 

Not really going to plan since no one anywhere that I read predicted we would get shut out in December.  As a matter of fact most forecasts had us with a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy December.  Not a historically one, but along the lines of 2002-03 which was pretty good.

I still think we will have a good winter, but IMO historic is off the table.  I have very high standards for historic and a T in December doesn't make the cut, regardless of what happens later.  IMO NYC can get to 40" seasonal snowfall but I wouldn't bet on anything higher than that.  A very good winter, but not historic.

 

[dmillz25]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No lol if it wasnt for that mid November snowstorm we would be shut out for the winter.  Going into January with only a T of snowfall is pretty ominous.  

 

Not really going to plan since no one anywhere that I read predicted we would get shut out in December.  As a matter of fact most forecasts had us with a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy December.  Not a historically one, but along the lines of 2002-03 which was pretty good.

I still think we will have a good winter, but IMO historic is off the table.  I have very high standards for historic and a T in December doesn't make the cut, regardless of what happens later.  IMO NYC can get to 40" seasonal snowfall but I wouldn't bet on anything higher than that.  A very good winter, but not historic.

 

Im talking about Janurary not for December. If you see what I posted in banter you’ll know what I’m talking about

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

No lol if it wasnt for that mid November snowstorm we would be shut out for the winter.  Going into January with only a T of snowfall is pretty ominous.  

 

Not really going to plan since no one anywhere that I read predicted we would get shut out in December.  As a matter of fact most forecasts had us with a somewhat cold and somewhat snowy December.  Not a historically one, but along the lines of 2002-03 which was pretty good.

I still think we will have a good winter, but IMO historic is off the table.  I have very high standards for historic and a T in December doesn't make the cut, regardless of what happens later.  IMO NYC can get to 40" seasonal snowfall but I wouldn't bet on anything higher than that.  A very good winter, but not historic.

 

A wall to wall winter is near impossible during our current climate. We have periods of warm and boring bookended by cold and stormy. Even 95/96 had meltdowns. Prior to 1930 maybe. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

A wall to wall winter is near impossible during our current climate. We have periods of warm and boring bookended by cold and stormy. Even 95/96 had meltdowns. Prior to 1930 maybe. 

95-96 is still the gold standard for wall to wall winter snowfall. It was the closest that BNL ever came to a 100” season. BNL had  10” or more every month from December to April which was a first. The late January flood cutter was really the only interruption.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

1995

1996

0

4.5

15.5

23.5

20

11.25

16

90.75

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

95-96 is still the gold standard for wall to wall winter snowfall. It was the closest that BNL ever came to a 100” season. BNL had  10” or more every month from December to April which was a first. The late January flood cutter was really the only interruption.

https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm

1995

1996

0

4.5

15.5

23.5

20

11.25

16

90.75

I’m talking NY harbor ice festival type winters. 

95/96 was epic in every possible way. Luckily I was old enough (13) to clearly remember the whole winter. The blizzard of 96 is in my top 10 weather events. And I clearly remember the November snow and April blue bomb. 

I think we have a pretty epic 6 week period coming after the 15th. Luckily this year the peak corresponds with peak climo. Had last March occurred from Jan 15 through feb 15th the coast would have smashed 30 day snowfall records

[SnoSki14]

We'll probably see some sort of coastal around Jan 3rd. Nice NAO dip, AO looks to be neutral and PNA is rising.

Not sure if there's enough cold though for anything wintry. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll probably see some sort of coastal around Jan 3rd. Nice NAO dip, AO looks to be neutral and PNA is rising.

Not sure if there's enough cold though for anything wintry. 

there is enough cold air in place

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m talking NY harbor ice festival type winters. 

95/96 was epic in every possible way. Luckily I was old enough (13) to clearly remember the whole winter. The blizzard of 96 is in my top 10 weather events. And I clearly remember the November snow and April blue bomb. 

I think we have a pretty epic 6 week period coming after the 15th. Luckily this year the peak corresponds with peak climo. Had last March occurred from Jan 15 through feb 15th the coast would have smashed 30 day snowfall records

While we may be getting too warm for a Nov to Apr wall to wall 95-96 repeat, we could get a shorter term burst like Boston a few years back and near the 95-96 seasonal totals.

https://weather.com/news/news/new-england-boston-record-snow-tracker

- Record 30-day snowfall: 94.4 inches from Jan. 24- Feb. 22, 2015, inclusive (previous record: 58.8 inches from Jan. 9 - Feb. 7, 1978). Incredibly, this 30-day total would be the third snowiest season!

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we may be getting too warm for a Nov to Apr wall to wall 95-96 repeat, we could get a shorter term burst like Boston a few years back and near the 95-96 seasonal totals.

You think there is a chance for 75 inches of snow in 6 weeks?

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

You think there is a chance for 75 inches of snow in 6 weeks?

We had over 60” in 35 days during 10-11. So I think 75” during a shorter period of time than 95-96 is possible. Especially somewhere out in Suffolk. But it’s anyone’s guess what year something like that could happen. 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

You think there is a chance for 75 inches of snow in 6 weeks?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

I highly disagree. All it takes is the right gradient pattern and a stream of storms. It’s a long shot but not impossible.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

there is enough cold air in place

I'm guessing that's probably wrong, Euro has it too but of course it's a rainstorm. MJO would be entering phase 6 by then, which is unfavorable for snows. 

[Yanksfan]

Message to the weather gods... If you declare this winter to ultimately be a dud, would you at least stop the relentless onslaught of rain?

[CIK62]

CFS is just 8BN  22AN on the next 30 Days.      Worse, the 8 come all together (1/3-10) then instant replay begins till Jan. 27.

JB used up his bag of excuses in today's video.     If the CFS is right, he will be scraped off the canvas and brought to NWS University Hospital ER and be ready in time to spread rumors about a cool summer or talk about some wayfaring hurricanes.   Lol.

Only a 'suicide jockey', seeking fame would ever call for BN anything nowadays.      The world has seen 408 istraight AN months globally.    The area in red is twice that in blue each month.    It takes hubris to think you can figure out ahead of time where those blue areas will be.

 

[North and West]

I highly disagree. All it takes is the right gradient pattern and a stream of storms. It’s a long shot but not impossible.

Agreed. Highly improbable, but not impossible. I got about 40” in fewer than four weeks last March; could have been even more if it was shifted a month prior. No one knows when that setup may occur again.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[rclab]

7 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Message to the weather gods... If you declare this winter to ultimately be a dud, would you at least stop the relentless onslaught of rain?

Forky, your serve.......

[Juliancolton]

Season totals and the prognostication thereof get way too much airtime. 14-15 was super forgettable imby and I had nearly 70". Get me a moderate daytime event with a couple hours of +SN and no mixing, then I'll worry about the numbers.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’m talking NY harbor ice festival type winters. 

95/96 was epic in every possible way. Luckily I was old enough (13) to clearly remember the whole winter. The blizzard of 96 is in my top 10 weather events. And I clearly remember the November snow and April blue bomb. 

I think we have a pretty epic 6 week period coming after the 15th. Luckily this year the peak corresponds with peak climo. Had last March occurred from Jan 15 through feb 15th the coast would have smashed 30 day snowfall records

I get envious when I read the old weather books that talk about those kinds of winters in the 1800s when NYC and Philly had constant snowcover November thru April and 100 inches of snow each.

1993-94 and 1995-96 were when I started measuring snowfall and I was so glad that I was able to experience winters like that.  Throwbacks to winters of a previous era- even if 1993-94 had so many mixed events and 1995-96 had thaws, we had a major event every winter month!

 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

While we may be getting too warm for a Nov to Apr wall to wall 95-96 repeat, we could get a shorter term burst like Boston a few years back and near the 95-96 seasonal totals.

https://weather.com/news/news/new-england-boston-record-snow-tracker

- Record 30-day snowfall: 94.4 inches from Jan. 24- Feb. 22, 2015, inclusive (previous record: 58.8 inches from Jan. 9 - Feb. 7, 1978). Incredibly, this 30-day total would be the third snowiest season!

I'm not sure that 1995-96 kind of winters are impossible yet, after all 2009-10 was a better winter in the mid atlantic and we missed out on surpassing our 1995-96 totals by about 50 miles or so

 

[Rjay]

The ICON is a trash model