Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

[NycStormChaser]

On 12/14/2018 at 12:13 AM, Rjay said:

So have we decided yet if we want the sanitation department to be proactive or just let another surprise storm shut down the city?

Most of you guys have been very unreasonable about this topic.  

There were numerous reasons that multiple areas were shutdown during that November snowstorm and a lot of people do not understand that. It was not just NYC. It was happening in Jersey too. People left for work in the morning and saw 0 - 2" of snow in the forecast. So they got into their car and drove to work. If the forecast would have said 3" - 6" of snow, a lot (Maybe thousands) of those people in small cars would have taken public transportation or car pooled. So right off the bat you have more cars on the road than you normally would during a snowstorm. Another issue is MTA buses perform horribly with any accumulating snow. Any more than 2 or 3 inches they need chains on the tires. Not much in Manhattan, but a lot of the other boroughs have a lot of hills and buses became stranded in the road, unable to get up the hills. That also added to the traffic jams of every day rush hour. IMO, those are two of the biggest factors. Could the DSNY have pre-salted roads and have had more plows on standby? Probably. But when you get 1"-2" an hour rates during rush hour in major metropolitan areas, it will be almost impossible to keep up with. 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

That is some story. It produced The 2nd biggest snowstorm in Detroit history. We wound up on the warm side of the storm. I can remember all the sand pushed up onto the streets from the coastal flooding near the beach. 

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/dtwsnowstorm

Wind Records (Peak Gusts in MPH)
Location
 
Central Park (1951-pres.)
ENE 78 mph
December 2, 1974

The Battery
 113+ mph
October 14, 1954

Wow no one ever talks about that storm for some reason.  They always mention the Ash Wed March 1962 storm and the Dec 1992 storm though.  Were the winds stronger on Long Island in those or this one and did this one last for 3 days also?

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Ehh, shut it down   In reality I'm so sick of the extreme amounts of salt and brine that are used and the ensuing damage that I'd rather see them say something to the effect of 'if you go out and have a problem you're on your own.' In January 94 when I lived in Tahoe we got north of 400" in a 35 day stretch. There were times where moving about was nearly impossible, they plowed what they could, cindered and sanded the rest but not a touch of salt anywhere. In all of the years that I lived in CO there was never a hint of salt being used, we would go months without seeing pavement other than in low traffic private parking lots that got plowed down to the ground every time it snowed. We either went out knowing that the proverbial isht could hit the fan or we didn't go out. Enough with all the salt...

A huge part of the traffic problems we see is people have absolutely the wrong tires on their cars for winter travel. Many sporty cars come with tires that are useless when the temp goes below 40*, forget it if there's even a hint of snow. The others come with tires that are essentially LRR so the car company can bump their fleet average 1-2mpg, these are also useless in the winter. Then when it comes time to replace them people go with the same or similar rather than something more appropriate for where they live or more commonly they are driving around on nearly bald tires. 

I wasn't here for either of those two but at least up here in Putnam County we've had numerous ice storms over the last few years. I think it was 97 (98?) where the entirety of upstate NY, most of New England and a fair chunk of Quebec and Ontario were devastated by a massive ice storm.

We've had way more sleet than that here several times in the last 10 years. We had 10" of pure sleet in one of the end of 2010 storms and then the first storm in '11 was also pure sleet. I'll never forget spending almost the whole night outside keeping the driveway passable because it would get so heavy and difficult to move after it accumulated it was better to just keep up with it.

I remember the sand in my grandparents street in Belle Harbor being at least a foot deep at their house which was 10 or 11 up from the beach. We went the day after the storm and because their driveway was slightly dropped below the street level it was more than halfway up the tires on my grandfathers Olds 98 and me and my dad had to dig the car out so he could go to work. When we left we tried to take some of the streets along the beach to see if it was like that further towards Far Rockaway but had to head further inland because the beach streets were impassable.

That Feb 1922 storm was actually around 4.5 inches of liquid equivalent over 3 days and a 17 inch total of a snow/sleet mix lol.

The most amount of sleet we've had down here was the 5-6" sleet storm in March 2007.  In Jan 1994 we had a 1-2" ice storm.

[Rjay]

On 12/15/2018 at 12:50 PM, NycStormChaser said:

There were numerous reasons that multiple areas were shutdown during that November snowstorm and a lot of people do not understand that. It was not just NYC. It was happening in Jersey too. People left for work in the morning and saw 0 - 2" of snow in the forecast. So they got into their car and drove to work. If the forecast would have said 3" - 6" of snow, a lot (Maybe thousands) of those people in small cars would have taken public transportation or car pooled. So right off the bat you have more cars on the road than you normally would during a snowstorm. Another issue is MTA buses perform horribly with any accumulating snow. Any more than 2 or 3 inches they need chains on the tires. Not much in Manhattan, but a lot of the other boroughs have a lot of hills and buses became stranded in the road, unable to get up the hills. That also added to the traffic jams of every day rush hour. IMO, those are two of the biggest factors. Could the DSNY have pre-salted roads and have had more plows on standby? Probably. But when you get 1"-2" an hour rates during rush hour in major metropolitan areas, it will be almost impossible to keep up with. 

Yep.  I said something similar right after the storm.

[CIK62]

CFS breakdown for the next 30 days is now   20AN   10BN.          If Dec. finishes AN,  the last 63 months would have a similar 2:1 ratio,   42AN   21BN.

12/17   Update:    About the same at  22AN    8BN, but we would have lost another winter day or two, if this is right.    Accuweather has pushed the sustained cold into Week 3 iof Jan.

12/18   Update:    20AN    10BN        12/19 Update (liberal interpretation on behalf of BN):    17AN   13BN

[CIK62]

The Worst Weather Events 2018 on a World Wide basis:

https://247wallst.com/special-report/2018/12/10/worst-weather-events-of-2018/?utm_source=247WallStDailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_content=DEC132018a&utm_campaign=DailyNewsletter

Gotta love photo with No. 7 on list.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

I'm going, to be honest. We need a truly promising sign of Winter's Return. Or it could get ugly through January.

[forkyfork]

yay, it's cloudy again

[the_other_guy]

Lot of drama on this site over a warm week or two.

Looks like lots of days in the mid 40s to finish out Dec. So what?

Is this 2015 where flowers are still alive in the pots outside? Or do we have a hefty snow and lots of sub freezing nights in the books already?

Just to frame, the LR forecast didn’t forecast second half October cold, November below normal or cold start to Dec, yet the emotional swings with each swing of the LR du jour is rapid.

Enjoy the holidays.

[North and West]

6 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Lot of drama on this site over a warm week or two.

Looks like lots of days in the mid 40s to finish out Dec. So what?

Is this 2015 where flowers are still alive in the pots outside? Or do we have a hefty snow and lots of sub freezing nights in the books already?

Just to frame, the LR forecast didn’t forecast second half October cold, November below normal or cold start to Dec, yet the emotional swings with each swing of the LR du jour is rapid.

Enjoy the holidays.

Noting that winter is over has become a Christmas tradition amongst us. Getting the tree up, hanging the stockings by the chimney with care, hawking a White Christmas that doesn't materialize, and then duly noting that winter's over. 

[SnoSki14]

38 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

yay, it's cloudy again

It's been brutal, like Seattle with more rain. 

This weekend was particularly dreadful.

[IrishRob17]

In my virtual snow chasing I came across something interesting on the camera at the Redfield Meso...

http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#?stid=REDF

[North and West]

Banter question: I'm thinking of taking the kids up to see some New England highlights in the near future; possibly as soon as this summer. Do you know if there are tours/know anyone who does tours of the Mount Washington weather observatory? (yes, yes... www.lmgtfy.com) My kids are into the weather and baseball, so thinking of doing a big Cooperstown - Mount Washington loop from our home.

[Great Snow 1717]

On ‎12‎/‎13‎/‎2018 at 3:12 PM, IrishRob17 said:

You started listening to Christmas music already?

For a few years there was a Boston radio station that started playing Christmas music on 11/1 ….24/7 until 1/2.  

[IrishRob17]

10 minutes ago, North and West said:

Banter question: I'm thinking of taking the kids up to see some New England highlights in the near future; possibly as soon as this summer. Do you know if there are tours/know anyone who does tours of the Mount Washington weather observatory? (yes, yes... www.lmgtfy.com) My kids are into the weather and baseball, so thinking of doing a big Cooperstown - Mount Washington loop from our home.

I took my kids here in North Conway, its neat little interactive museum, great for kids. https://www.mountwashington.org/visit-us/weather-discovery-center/

[North and West]

Just now, IrishRob17 said:

I took my kids here in North Conway, its neat little interactive museum, great for kids. https://www.mountwashington.org/visit-us/weather-discovery-center/

Thanks!

My kids are into watching the radar now, and would love the extremes of Mount Washington.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

Lot of drama on this site over a warm week or two.

Looks like lots of days in the mid 40s to finish out Dec. So what?

Is this 2015 where flowers are still alive in the pots outside? Or do we have a hefty snow and lots of sub freezing nights in the books already?

Just to frame, the LR forecast didn’t forecast second half October cold, November below normal or cold start to Dec, yet the emotional swings with each swing of the LR du jour is rapid.

Enjoy the holidays.

Perspective

[IrishRob17]

2 minutes ago, North and West said:

Thanks!

My kids are into watching the radar now, and would love the extremes of Mount Washington.

Well clearly you should take them to the top.  I've taken The Cog train to the top, driven a few times and this year took the guide van tour, that was nice because i could just take in the views and not focus on driving.  

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, North and West said:

Banter question: I'm thinking of taking the kids up to see some New England highlights in the near future; possibly as soon as this summer. Do you know if there are tours/know anyone who does tours of the Mount Washington weather observatory? (yes, yes... www.lmgtfy.com) My kids are into the weather and baseball, so thinking of doing a big Cooperstown - Mount Washington loop from our home.

 

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

Well clearly you should take them to the top.  I've taken The Cog train to the top, driven a few times and this year took the guide van tour, that was nice because i could just take in the views and not focus on driving.  

The Cog train is the way to go.  I've found taking the train to be much more enjoyable than driving.

[North and West]

10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Well clearly you should take them to the top.  I've taken The Cog train to the top, driven a few times and this year took the guide van tour, that was nice because i could just take in the views and not focus on driving.  

I hope to!

[North and West]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

The Cog train is the way to go.  I've found taking the train to be much more enjoyable than driving.

Yea... the driving seems a bit white-knuckled, with the lack of guide rails. 

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

Yea... the driving seems a bit white-knuckled, with the lack of guide rails. 

And the idiot drivers.

[tdp146]

5 minutes ago, North and West said:

Yea... the driving seems a bit white-knuckled, with the lack of guide rails. 

The weather up there truly is as advertised. I hiked up a few years ago, it was in the 60s when we submitted. Like clockwork, a wall of clouds came in like a train and the temp dropped as we started back down. Ended up getting hailed on. I watched a bolt of lightning come out of the clouds at a lower altitude from where I was standing. It was surreal, and scary.  The forecast called for just the slightest chance of T-storms, we kind of knew there was a chance we could get into some trouble. But when you drive up 8 hours and only have one chance to make the trek, you kind of feel like you should just go for it. Still glad we did. 

[North and West]

12 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

The weather up there truly is as advertised. I hiked up a few years ago, it was in the 60s when we submitted. Like clockwork, a wall of clouds came in like a train and the temp dropped as we started back down. Ended up getting hailed on. I watched a bolt of lightning come out of the clouds at a lower altitude from where I was standing. It was surreal, and scary.  The forecast called for just the slightest chance of T-storms, we kind of knew there was a chance we could get into some trouble. But when you drive up 8 hours and only have one chance to make the trek, you kind of feel like you should just go for it. Still glad we did. 

Wow!

 

I want to drive up, do the cog railway, take the kids on the weather tour (for me, too), and then go back down.

[alex]

7 hours ago, North and West said:

Banter question: I'm thinking of taking the kids up to see some New England highlights in the near future; possibly as soon as this summer. Do you know if there are tours/know anyone who does tours of the Mount Washington weather observatory? (yes, yes... www.lmgtfy.com) My kids are into the weather and baseball, so thinking of doing a big Cooperstown - Mount Washington loop from our home.

I own a company that does vacation rentals in Bretton Woods - www.brettonwoodsrentals.com. You can do a tour of the observatory, just make sure you book in advance. The Cog is fun but you only get about an hour at the top (3 hour round trip); driving gives you a bit more time to explore. Of course, you could do both.  

 

PM if you need a place to stay - we have lots of options!

[Rjay]

13 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

I'm going, to be honest. We need a truly promising sign of Winter's Return. Or it could get ugly through January.

It's coming.   Dont look at the models for another week or so.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, Rjay said:

It's coming.   Dont look at the models for another week.

Yeah. I feel better after checking out the upcoming SSW and possible SOI tank near New Year's Day. 

[CIK62]

Just received an E-Mail that AccuWeather 'Weather Forums' is terminating for good as of today.     Might get more crowded here.

Long LIve American Weather!

 

[North and West]

This board this time of year...

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Just received an E-Mail that AccuWeather 'Weather Forums' is terminating for good as of today.     Might get more crowded here.

Long LIve American Weather!

 

Should make it like some of the FB pages where you have to answer a couple of questions. It might weed out some of the riff raff. RJay and BX need the work