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December 9/10 Storm


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12 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

At 90, the 18Z FV3 has the low in southern GA rather than around Tampa like its last 2 runs.  Precip shield is further north by a few counties as well.

12Z vs 18Z

 

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 6.15.15 PM.png

Screenshot 2018-12-05 at 6.14.51 PM.png

I think it will end up being just noise.  Confluence looks stronger this run.  Further north but a tick weaker.  A wash is my call.

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7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I think it will end up being just noise.  Confluence looks stronger this run.  Further north but a tick weaker.  A wash is my call.

Someone posted it already, measurable precip is south of EZF which is substantial shift south from 12z.  We just have to luck into it on Sunday/Monday as it seems we just bounce back and forth between minor hit and nothing.  Hopefully the last run before the storm is a miss....should bode well.

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Someone posted it already, measurable precip is south of EZF which is substantial shift south from 12z.  We just have to luck into it on Sunday/Monday as it seems we just bounce back and forth between minor hit and nothing.  Hopefully the last run before the storm is a miss....should bode well.

Minor hit would be fine.  This seems like all or nothing.  Virga will be solid I think and then it will just collapse on itself toward the warning area.  

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1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said:

Aren't we still 4 days away from the storm being here?  You guys sound like a bunch of bitter Redskins fans.

The synoptic elements for the storm are not! So we can start looking at items that will impact Day 4 by Day 2/3.. so we are getting close to shutting the window! We can still be wrong, but it will have to be something new the models have been missing consistently for MANY MANY model runs now..

 

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18z Euro similar to 12z.  Confluence is a touch stronger than 12z but sharper ss sw and the northern energy over the Dakotas is just south of the 12z position.  I can’t get the surface map to load because the weathermodels site was apparently created by the Flintstones using Windows 95.

ETA:  Bad news is that it wouldn’t be a better outcome than 12z if I had to extrapolate from there.  

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that. 

Agree, and I think this is the reason why we haven't been seeing good runs for our region.  I know others including you have posted and discussed that point.  I'm hoping that somehow, some way, the northern stream is not as suppressive and we get some snow out of this system.  Not calling for a lot - wish the CMC were right lol - but a decent 1-2 inches would be nice.  That's all I'm asking for now

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that. 

Any positive that goes in our favor seems to get squashed (pun intended) by stronger confluence.  If we could keep that from trending stronger from here on out, I could see how that relaxes/models overdoing it just enough to bring this north inside of 72 hours.  But we can’t be looking at no precip north of VA/NC border and expect that much of a shift.  Just keep RIC in the 0.5”+ QPF and I’ll remain interested up until the bitter end.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@psuhoffman what is your take on the trends down my way? Would you worry about a fringe job or do you think we are solidly locked in? Some of the recent model runs, especially the euro are pushing the best lift and moisture even south of me now or am I completely overreacting? 

You are overreacting.  Of course the recent trends don’t look that good for you.  They look better for update SC.  Go figure in early Dec.  

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

One trend is bothering me. I assumed the stj system would end up stronger and pump heights in front more. But the northern stream is trending even more suppressive to our northeast offsetting that. 

Dang...I thought all our northern stream suppression depression would've left with the la nina--but here we dealing with it again! I guess this is one example of how...even in a nino...you can still fail south if the confluence is strong enough...

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe this has been said but our threat sure has similarities to 2003 PD2 at H5. Pd2 had a stronger high ..but further north . Pd2 surface low tracked through southern Arkansas instead of Louisiana but overall looks close. 

 Ewall is on the fritz but here are a few gefs members

 

It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence.  If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here.  That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Maybe this has been said but our threat sure has similarities to 2003 PD2 at H5. Pd2 had a stronger high ..but further north . Pd2 surface low tracked through southern Arkansas instead of Louisiana but overall looks close. 

 Ewall is on the fritz but here are a few gefs members

 

Screenshot_20181205-205252_Chrome_crop_540x695.jpg

Screenshot_20181205-205439_Gallery_crop_540x433.jpg

Ya tryin' to torture us, dude? Lol But yeah, that goes to show you how just one little feature at the wrong time is screwing us over, smh (our last hope for this one is that it's being overdone on the models!)

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Speaking of the GEFS... the mean (sorry if this was posted already) is godawful. This needs to turn around ASAP

 

 

They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on.  The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence.  If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here.  That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.

Exactly. Especially since the system is still a little over 24 hours from even coming onshore on the west coast. 

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