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December 9/10 Storm


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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Looks a LOT like the 12z euro.  

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence.  Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

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The phase idea seems less and less likely... it was the Hail Mary for us weenies.. and, like Lucy taking the football away, it is less and less likely!

Here is the deal:

  1. Been great to have a threat! Southern streams are so wet and this will be a doozy of a system
  2. Thank goodness this is even before the start of Meteorological Winter. I will hate looking at % of normal snow for the season and be far less than south
  3. We have time! Hoping long range gives us more hope.

There is probably going to be a north trend, but that wall has to come down.. it may really hurt or be a 30 minute ride to see a lot of snow!

See y'all at 11

ETA - Meant regular Winter! Meteorological winter started December 1st! OOPS!

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence.  Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

And phases are not easy...

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Just now, midatlanticweather said:

The phase idea seems less and less likely... it was the Hail Mary for us weenies.. and, like Lucy taking the football away, it is less and less likely!

Here is the deal:

  1. Been great to have a threat! Southern streams are so wet and this will be a doozy of a system
  2. Thank goodness this is even before the start of Meteorological Winter. I will hate looking at % of normal snow for the season and be far less than south
  3. We have time! Hoping long range gives us more hope.

There is probably going to be a north trend, but that wall has to come down.. it may really hurt or be a 30 minute ride to see a lot of snow!

See y'all at 11

 

I agree. 18z so I'm not throwing in the towel yet. But there does seem to be a growing consensus on how far to the north models will bring this system. Luckily, winter has not even started yet and we will still have plenty of storms to track. Will be useful to compare model performance on this storm for future threats later on (especially FV3). 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence.  Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

Yup the models are pretty much in agreement.  That being said ive seen the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all shift together in one model cycle.  So there is still a slim chance.  However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow.  Still think there is a slim shot we score.

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Just now, kurtstack said:

Yup the models are pretty much in agreement.  That being said ive seem the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all ahift togwther in one model cycle.  So there is still a slim chance.  However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow.  Still think there is a slim shot we score.

This happens often at this range imo.  I'm super optimistic!

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, upper levels aren't moving much anymore. Nothing new showed up at all today except the wacky CMC phase job. No model is even close to that type of solution. That's probably the only thing that can save us. Confluence could relax enough for more than a dusting but a good event requires a phase from what I'm seeing. No other path unless models are totally blowing the northern stream/confluence.  Seeing a tight cluster now isn't very inspiring...

Yup.  At the moment I think hoping that the QPF max is over DC-Balt is pretty big reach.  But I think we're still very much in the game to have that northern edge/cutoff draped somewhere through the region.  

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3 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

Yup the models are pretty much in agreement.  That being said ive seem the models all in agreement at 4 days and then all ahift togwther in one model cycle.  So there is still a slim chance.  However we probably need to see that happen at some point tomorrow.  Still think there is a slim shot we score.

If we take out our yard bias perspective, this storm has been very well modelled from pretty far out in time. Vast majority of op and ens runs have shown western NC nd SWVA as ground zero. That hasn't changed for days and now the focus is lasering in on the same spot that was initially targeted. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we take out our yard bias perspective, this storm has been very well modelled from pretty far out in time. Vast majority of op and ens runs have shown western NC nd SWVA as ground zero. That hasn't changed for days and now the focus is lasering in on the same spot that was initially targeted. 

Agreed. And one interesting thing about that is the big ones for our area are usually modeled pretty well in advance as well. Not saying it is going to go down as modeled. But they have been pretty damn consistent on who is going to get snow out of this.

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The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup.  At the moment I think hoping that the QPF max is over DC-Balt is pretty big reach.  But I think we're still very much in the game to have that northern edge/cutoff draped somewhere through the region.  

What will be interesting to eventually learn is whether the effect of the NS is overdone like many have said during this annoying hobby and we do score something with the move to the north.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The last 48 hours has been frustrating. If you wanted any improvements there were none on the whole. But if we just wanted to get it the 4th quarter close that happened. It's within striking distance from here. But I'll admit it's been frustrating even for me. Even tonight if it stays where it is I think we have a reasonable chance. But I think tomorrow is when I want to see subtle improvements or else I'll start to lose some faith. 

You know if we were bullseye right now there'd be just as much worrying about north shift and all kinds of assertions about modeling not being a sure bet at this range, waiting for the rug to be pulled out sub-72 hrs, etc etc. 

FWIW, LWX still keeping east of Blue Ridge in yellow and west of Blue Ridge orange -- yeah it includes some southern areas but based on AFD as well, clearly they aren't writing this off yet either.

image.png.d86cb76755e7fc8d8a9da6a430b53e7a.png

 

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4 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

You know if we were bullseye right now there'd be just as much worrying about north shift and all kinds of assertions about modeling not being a sure bet at this range, waiting for the rug to be pulled out sub-72 hrs, etc etc.  

FWIW, LWX still keeping east of Blue Ridge in yellow and west of Blue Ridge orange -- yeah it includes some southern areas but based on AFD as well, clearly they aren't writing this off yet either. 

image.png.d86cb76755e7fc8d8a9da6a430b53e7a.png

 

Earlier they removed the yellow shading over us, so something must be trending favorably.

eta: It's odd how their color splits are always the same boundary!  It's never west to east.

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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup.  At the moment I think hoping that the QPF max is over DC-Balt is pretty big reach.  But I think we're still very much in the game to have that northern edge/cutoff draped somewhere through the region.  

Where that cutoff will be is the big question. Feel it will be just South of EZF, but that’s a wag. Wouldn’t shock me to see DC in like a 2-4” range when all said and done with amounts a bit higher as you head toward EZF. But that’s all just a guess...

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3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Earlier they removed the yellow shading over us, so something must be trending favorably.

eta: It's odd how their color splits are always the same boundary!  It's never west to east.

But it should be in this situation...west to east...if it snows in Winchester it’s snowing in DC for this particular north to south set up

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Where that cutoff will be is the big question. Feel it will be just South of EZF, but that’s a wag. Wouldn’t shock me to see DC in like a 2-4” range when all said and done with amounts a bit higher as you head toward EZF. But that’s all just a guess...

I think this is a reasonable target from where we are now.  

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z FV3 is a big swing and a miss, .1" of QPF makes it up to just south of Fredericksburg or so. 

See it here: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov

 

LWX hedging further north than that; keeping us on the northern edge. For a little perspective here -- normally we'd be thrilled at the prospect of getting 2-4" this early in the season, and that would still be a solid outcome even if we have to watch SE jackpot.

 

prbww_sn25_DAY5.gif

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Just now, MountainGeek said:

 

 

LWX hedging further north than that; keeping us on the northern edge. For a little perspective here -- normally we'd be thrilled at the prospect of getting 2-4" this early in the season, and that would still be a solid outcome even if we have to watch SE jackpot.

 

 

SEems reasonable at this point.  10-30% chance depending on where you are.  If things don’t start shifting tomorrow (not just a run here or there), it’ll be a different story.

 

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I like where we stand right now. Currently we are out of the game. But we are close enough to stay interested. We want the bullseye on Friday or Saturday. The models are locked in and that’s all well and good. But i fell a shift coming in the next 24 hours. The confluence to the North is going to weaken just enough for us to score

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CMC is officially on a little lump of sand with a single palm tree on it in the middle of a vast ocean. 

I doubt there will be much spread at 0z but this is the perfect time range to start the north tick if it's going to happen. My bar is currently set at zero so it can only go up from here. 

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