Hurricanegiants Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Ok. Dare I ask but at this point—when is the next model to watch by 2:00 am? In other words as the Hail Mary is thrown.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Ok. Dare I ask but at this point—when is the next model to watch by 2:00 am? In other words as the Hail Mary is thrown.... lol 06z NAM is like 2:30 am I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 This isn’t happening. Everything on the northern edge in this airmass will dry up. Suppression is locked in. This is a rare setup where southern VA, NC, northern SC, and the Appalachians get major impacts in early December. Can’t bank on the northern shifts which really are not northern shifts. You are seeing the uncertainty between the southern extent and northern extent of the simulated model precip from run to run. The track and strength of the low itself is locked in. It’s not favorable to our region and will not change. You can will this northern edge all you want, best case scenario in D.C. and the immediate metro to NOVA is flurries. Areas south toward the southern extent of LWX CWA will see accumulating snow and impacts. Areas north will watch their southern neighbors get snow. The meteorology is simply not there for the majority of our area and you cannot force light lifting mechanisms into a suppressed dry airmass and get meaningful snow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 00z UKMET meteogram is 5-6mm of snow at DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 This is happening. Perspective is everything. I am wary of subforum-wide ultimatum posts. I anticipate snow by 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z UKMET meteogram is 5-6mm of snow at DCA Where do you get the meteograms of UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: Where do you get the meteograms of UKMET? http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ukmet Scroll down to where it says meteogram... then click on USA up top of the page since it will send you to Montreal first 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, yoda said: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=ukmet Scroll down to where it says meteogram... then click on USA up top of the page since it will send you to Montreal first Thanks....this storm is frustrating and entertaining all at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Ya. It’s official. The Brick Wall is the worst way to lose. The usual rain/snow line provides a chance, the mountains are just a long-standing-yet reasonable understanding. The Wall-50 miles short is just an open hand slap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1037 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 [snip] Perhaps the most notable and significant feature affecting the upcoming system is a compact shortwave diving southeast from the Hudson Bay vicinity. This shortwave is rotating around a larger cyclonic gyre centered over southeastern Canada near 60 W. This upper pattern has acted to enhance confluence over northern New England southward toward the Mid-Atlantic, which is resulting in the more west to east low track out to sea to our south. However, this shortwave feature to the north has appeared to deepen a bit more than forecast over the last 18-24 hours, resulting in subsequent subtle downstream height rises. It`s not much, but it appears it may be just enough to weaken the confluence near and to our north a touch, allowing a northward shift in the tight northern edge of the snowfall from low pressure passing to our south. 12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. The latest 00z nam has stopped the trend, and still has the gradient between little or now snow vs. more significant snow south of Interstate 66 in Virginia and US 50 in Maryland. Given the majority of the guidance showing the gradient across these areas, headlines have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for portions of central Virginia with Winter Weather Advisories across the Virginia Piedmont and central Shenandoah Valley where confidence is increasing that these areas will be south of the gradient. Farther north and east...closer to the gradient confidence was not high enough to upgrade at this time but this will have to be monitored overnight. Additional Winter Weather Advisories or Winter Storm Warnings may be needed. The most likely forecast was tweaked up slightly from the afternoon forecast, basically bringing up snowfall totals where most guidance shows the gradient being to the north. However, with such a tight gradient nearby this continues to be a forecast with low certainty across northern Virginia and central Maryland. A shift just 30 miles or so either way will have a significant impact on the forecast. See Winter Weather Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter for latest range of possibility graphics). Since this is a dynamic system with a lot of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall gradient, staying tuned to later forecast updates is prudent. 27 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: This isn’t happening. Everything on the northern edge in this airmass will dry up. Suppression is locked in. This is a rare setup where southern VA, NC, northern SC, and the Appalachians get major impacts in early December. Can’t bank on the northern shifts which really are not northern shifts. You are seeing the uncertainty between the southern extent and northern extent of the simulated model precip from run to run. The track and strength of the low itself is locked in. It’s not favorable to our region and will not change. You can will this northern edge all you want, best case scenario in D.C. and the immediate metro to NOVA is flurries. Areas south toward the southern extent of LWX CWA will see accumulating snow and impacts. Areas north will watch their southern neighbors get snow. The meteorology is simply not there for the majority of our area and you cannot force light lifting mechanisms into a suppressed dry airmass and get meaningful snow. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: This is happening. Perspective is everything. I am wary of subforum-wide ultimatum posts. I anticipate snow by 18Z Sure. Where you live it’ll snow, not up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: Could care less what is written there. At all. Guess you dont care then that the zones have snow likely for DCA... 70 percent chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: LOL Could care less what their discussion says. It’s not happening for the immediate D.C. metro to NOVA. You can hook a fire hose up to Ocean City and send it into an imaginary Trowal, still not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Guess you dont care then that the zones have snow likely for DCA... 70 percent chance Standing firm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Could care less what their discussion says. It’s not happening for the immediate D.C. metro to NOVA. You can hook a fire hose up to Ocean City and send it into an imaginary Trowal, still not happening. At least wait for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: At least wait for the euro. Lol the Euro? For what. Writing has been on the wall since Thursday night. This is over. I’ve seen 100 posts on here all day about northward trends it’s not happening! Let it go. Euro will show nothing more than a sharp cutoff south. Simple! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: Lol the Euro? For what. Writing has been on the wall since Thursday night. This is over. I’ve seen 100 posts on here all day about northward trends it’s not happening! Let it go. Euro will show nothing more than a sharp cutoff south. Simple! So where's the line going to be then? EZF? Quantico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 TTB maps look slightly better than 0z last night. h5 isobars nudged north hr24 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: TTB maps look slightly better than 0z last night. h5 isobars nudged north hr24 fwiw. Perhaps better than last night's 0z, but south of 12z. Precip just barely scrapes south of DC as she slides out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: So where's the line going to be then? EZF? Quantico? Line of what? Smoking cirrus, dense cirrus, flurries, or accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Line of what? Smoking cirrus, dense cirrus, flurries, or accumulating snow? accumulating snow of a dusting or greater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: accumulating snow of a dusting or greater That’s broad. Dusting or greater is like saying 0.5 to 4 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: That’s broad. Dusting or greater is like saying 0.5 to 4 feet you asked and gave a list... I said accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Charlottesville gets into advisory level 3-5 locally to 6, EZF 1-2 locally to 3. Then sharp cutoff. Light precip echoes with flurries into DC and to NOVA best case snow setup. North of there...could even see thinning cirrus over the M/D line 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I wish we had a Ron Paul it’s not happening meme. That is sorely needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Temperature IMBY has actually gone up two degrees since evening and has been stuck at 33 since midnight. Forecasted low was 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Radar is f'd up....I'm not watching. Congrats southers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 OK, snow started falling here about 5:30 am, about 90 minutes head of the modeled advance. Hopefully that is a good sign for further north that it is coming in a bit faster and eroding the dry air quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Don’t think I’m going back to Charlottesville. Not confident they verify the WSW. Me not heading back down means they will though. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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