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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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Just now, jackb979 said:

Bit of a bump north for ICON. I'll take that trend 

There is still time for this to change, and I’m not wish casting. Think about it, every year the models show a bullseye over us at 120 hours it leads to high concern it will shift north or south. Some of the players have not made it onshore yet and the southern Plains low/Upper energy is just starting to evolve. 

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Just now, peribonca said:

Max snow totals in jackpot zone look weaksauce on icon

Positive takeaway if there is one is that it showed that bump north with a pretty mundane evolution at the upper levels overall. If it were more amped like a few of the others with the s/w, we could have a more robust and a bit "norther" outcome. 

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Heck of a write up from Mt Holly in their AFD ( in addition to keeping up with the over performing Norlun which produced up to 7" of snow in coastal NJ)-

To be blunt, I am not buying
what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in
precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the
strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble
guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of
the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the
interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the
vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1)
force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models
tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to
develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern-
stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented
from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early
next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough,
suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important
feature.

With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and
large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases
of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often
are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern-
stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending
tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of
noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent
with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in
our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread
PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases
exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so
far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of
medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture.
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:
It is a pretty decent little bump northward. 

It's not compared to 00z yesterday. Were just back in the same place

It's like a wizards game. Start off ok and get false hope, then go down by 20 in the 2nd, mount a comeback in the second half, but fall short then give up and go down in flames to close the game. 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Heck of a write up from Mt Holly in their AFD ( in addition to keeping up with the over performing Norlun which produced up to 7" of snow in coastal NJ)



 

Wow, I like it.  

 

All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode.  I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z.  As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more.  

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Wow, I like it.  

 

All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode.  I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z.  As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more.  

I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point.  I'm all in until Friday at least.   I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's like a wizards game. Start off ok and get false hope, then go down by 20 in the 2nd, mount a comeback in the second half, but fall short then give up and go down in flames to close the game. 

they need a 3rd goto scorer at the 3 or 4 position.

in storm news...i'm very much still in.  gotta think it's all about the northern stream at this point and how much of a road block it will be in early december.  usually we worry about temps at this time of year, so i have some doubts about how suppressed this storm will be.  maybe we can fringe our way to a moderate storm...or in the wizards case, a 6th thru 8th seed.

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point.  I'm all in until Friday at least.   I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z

I never expect the 'off' runs of the GFS op to start a notable trend (hides).

Tonight's 0z run is gonna be YUGE.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point.  I'm all in until Friday at least.   I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z

Except for the souther and easter part, the gfs is identical to 12z. 

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Infinitesimal shift south on the confluence leads to a ~20-50mi south shift on precipitation extent on the GFS.  Southern s/w seems to continue to trend every so slightly stronger each run, but it doesn't seem to make much difference.  That northern s/w that's trying to phase is slower and that doesn't help.  
 

Next. 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I never expect the 'off' runs of the GFS op to start a notable trend (hides).

Tonight's 0z run is gonna be YUGE.

There does seem to be a pattern in the last 5 days where are "best" runs are 0z.  Probably coincidence, but weird.  We need the storm to hit around 6z Monday obvs.  

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