ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 18z ICON gets close, but accumulating snow stays suppressed just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: 18z ICON gets close, but accumulating snow stays suppressed just to the south. It is a pretty decent little bump northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: 18z ICON gets close, but accumulating snow stays suppressed just to the south. Let me guess Roanoke jackpot? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Let me guess Roanoke jackpot? Pretty much hahahahaha. Yea man it does look good on that run down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Let me guess Roanoke jackpot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It is a pretty decent little bump northward. It’s really just noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, jewell2188 said: It’s really just noise at this point. Accumulating snow went north about 75 miles... thats more than just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: My God that is painful snow map. But again it is wht it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: That's been a pretty familiar looking map for several days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Max snow totals in jackpot zone look weaksauce on icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, jackb979 said: Bit of a bump north for ICON. I'll take that trend There is still time for this to change, and I’m not wish casting. Think about it, every year the models show a bullseye over us at 120 hours it leads to high concern it will shift north or south. Some of the players have not made it onshore yet and the southern Plains low/Upper energy is just starting to evolve. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, peribonca said: Max snow totals in jackpot zone look weaksauce on icon Positive takeaway if there is one is that it showed that bump north with a pretty mundane evolution at the upper levels overall. If it were more amped like a few of the others with the s/w, we could have a more robust and a bit "norther" outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I won’t back down until there are no ensemble members left with a full impact to our region. That kind of confidence likely won’t happen until Friday. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It is a pretty decent little bump northward. It's not compared to 00z yesterday. Were just back in the same place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Heck of a write up from Mt Holly in their AFD ( in addition to keeping up with the over performing Norlun which produced up to 7" of snow in coastal NJ)- To be blunt, I am not buying what the models are selling, though I do think the sharp gradient in precipitation on the north side makes physical sense (given the strength of the surface high to its north). A perusal of ensemble guidance suggests the trend has been for a slower exit stage east of the southern-stream system, and there are indications that the interaction with the upstream northern perturbation somewhere in the vicinity of the northern plains late this weekend could act to (1) force the southern-stream system farther north with time (as models tend to struggle mightily with at this time range) and (2) act to develop a secondary low somewhere upstream (west) of the southern- stream low. According to the 12z ECMWF, this second low is prevented from moving northward by a digging shortwave in eastern Canada early next week. However, the GFS is much faster with this trough, suggesting that timing uncertainty is very large with this important feature. With so many perturbations and complex interactions at play and large run-to-run variability, I tend to resort to systematic biases of each model as a starting point. At this time range, models often are too aggressive with the northern-stream kicking the southern- stream system offshore before the inevitable northwest-trending tracks within 48 to 72 hours of the event. The 12z CMC is worthy of noting its farther northwest track and has been fairly consistent with this. Given all of the above, it is premature to trim PoPs in our area Sunday afternoon through Monday night. In fact, I spread PoPs northward to account for what I suspect are model biases exhibiting their usual selves. Given the trend this cool season so far, broad-brushing the timing and expanding PoPs well northward of medium-range consensus seems to me the wise choice at this juncture. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It is a pretty decent little bump northward. It's not compared to 00z yesterday. Were just back in the same place It's like a wizards game. Start off ok and get false hope, then go down by 20 in the 2nd, mount a comeback in the second half, but fall short then give up and go down in flames to close the game. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Heck of a write up from Mt Holly in their AFD ( in addition to keeping up with the over performing Norlun which produced up to 7" of snow in coastal NJ) Wow, I like it. All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode. I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z. As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The positioning of that high is money! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Wow, I like it. All in all, I still feel like we're in just ping-pong mode. I was hoping EPS would keep trending positively, but it put us almost exactly back to yesterday 12z. As much as I wish we'd either by in or out, I think this one is going to string us along for awhile more. I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point. I'm all in until Friday at least. I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It seems the GFS has been trending for less interaction between the NS vort coming out of the Dakotas and our ss vort, if you loop the past four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's like a wizards game. Start off ok and get false hope, then go down by 20 in the 2nd, mount a comeback in the second half, but fall short then give up and go down in flames to close the game. they need a 3rd goto scorer at the 3 or 4 position. in storm news...i'm very much still in. gotta think it's all about the northern stream at this point and how much of a road block it will be in early december. usually we worry about temps at this time of year, so i have some doubts about how suppressed this storm will be. maybe we can fringe our way to a moderate storm...or in the wizards case, a 6th thru 8th seed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The positioning of that high is money! Well I mean...it would be...but ain't the "wall" still there? EDIT: Yep, it's still there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point. I'm all in until Friday at least. I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z I never expect the 'off' runs of the GFS op to start a notable trend (hides). Tonight's 0z run is gonna be YUGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not even close to giving up, I'm just annoyed at this point. I'm all in until Friday at least. I mean, at this point the GFS isn't making sudden moves..continuing with 18z Except for the souther and easter part, the gfs is identical to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Infinitesimal shift south on the confluence leads to a ~20-50mi south shift on precipitation extent on the GFS. Southern s/w seems to continue to trend every so slightly stronger each run, but it doesn't seem to make much difference. That northern s/w that's trying to phase is slower and that doesn't help. Next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 A miss on the 18z GFS. Snow doesn't get further north than Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Except for the souther and easter part, the gfs is identical to 12z. Looks a LOT like the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I never expect the 'off' runs of the GFS op to start a notable trend (hides). Tonight's 0z run is gonna be YUGE. There does seem to be a pattern in the last 5 days where are "best" runs are 0z. Probably coincidence, but weird. We need the storm to hit around 6z Monday obvs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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