BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 39 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Who will be the dolt to quote that Just what I wanted to read At least you know you are mostly out. I’m less out but so close to being almost in. Miles make the difference in 5 mile increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Biggest December screw job in history for my area about to happen. Whatever. Macallan 12 cures all ills. One positive to the cold air is that Snowshoe looks great already. They are making snow like a champ there. https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 ICON gets 0.1” to the border of Spots/Stafford Cty. A tiny nudge north but more importantly for @wawarriors4 bumped the heavier stuff north towards you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 GFS op is being stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: GFS op is being stubborn. We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 And GFS keeps 0.1” south of EZF. Hopefully it’s wrong for our southern friends. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The American models having this much disagreement within 30 hours should be illegal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: If it was 30 degrees in Upstate NY under a suppressive high pressure and I was sitting at 40 here, I would be concerned about the prospects of a snowstorm for my backyard. There isn't a lot of cold air to tap. It's early December...surface temps (when not yet saturated) are not always the best indicator of the depth of a cold air mass or of the flow at the mid and upper levels which have more to say at determining storm track and snowfall. That said your concern for places south of is on the coastal plain is legit. It's close to mixing if things break 1-2 degrees warmer. But I think dewpoints suggest if they will be ok. Inland on the piedmont and the mountains make no mistake this will be historic for them. Keep in mind a 10"+ storm is historic for places south of DC outside high elevations. A 10" storm in Richmond would immediately jump into 16th place all time. 13" would get into the top 10! A pretty large area of northwest NC and southwestern VA west of the fall line is going to get 10-15" with some localized places pushing 20. That's a rare significant event for that area. I wouldn't dismiss it so readily. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: The American models having this much disagreement within 30 hours should be illegal. That will be true in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Jeez that G I see it now. Jeez that is just an amazing gradient. Like nothing I have ever seen with nearly a foot 50 miles to my south. Similar gradient through central PA and NJ with the Feb 5 2010 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The American models having this much disagreement within 30 hours should be illegal. For sure!! With ensuing fines! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1037 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 [snip] Perhaps the most notable and significant feature affecting the upcoming system is a compact shortwave diving southeast from the Hudson Bay vicinity. This shortwave is rotating around a larger cyclonic gyre centered over southeastern Canada near 60 W. This upper pattern has acted to enhance confluence over northern New England southward toward the Mid-Atlantic, which is resulting in the more west to east low track out to sea to our south. However, this shortwave feature to the north has appeared to deepen a bit more than forecast over the last 18-24 hours, resulting in subsequent subtle downstream height rises. It`s not much, but it appears it may be just enough to weaken the confluence near and to our north a touch, allowing a northward shift in the tight northern edge of the snowfall from low pressure passing to our south. 12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. The latest 00z nam has stopped the trend, and still has the gradient between little or now snow vs. more significant snow south of Interstate 66 in Virginia and US 50 in Maryland. Given the majority of the guidance showing the gradient across these areas, headlines have been upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings for portions of central Virginia with Winter Weather Advisories across the Virginia Piedmont and central Shenandoah Valley where confidence is increasing that these areas will be south of the gradient. Farther north and east...closer to the gradient confidence was not high enough to upgrade at this time but this will have to be monitored overnight. Additional Winter Weather Advisories or Winter Storm Warnings may be needed. The most likely forecast was tweaked up slightly from the afternoon forecast, basically bringing up snowfall totals where most guidance shows the gradient being to the north. However, with such a tight gradient nearby this continues to be a forecast with low certainty across northern Virginia and central Maryland. A shift just 30 miles or so either way will have a significant impact on the forecast. See Winter Weather Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter for latest range of possibility graphics). Since this is a dynamic system with a lot of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall gradient, staying tuned to later forecast updates is prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 HRDPS, ever consistent in it's slamming of Central VA and its teasing of areas just south of DC, continues to do so. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 CMC a smidge South... Splitting hairs and just noise but not what I wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 First flakes began here in Jonesville just before 10 and is currently snowing moderately. Ground covering. Temp. 33. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Daniel Boone said: First flakes began here in Jonesville just before 10 and is currently snowing moderately. Ground covering. Temp. 33. How much are your forecast to get? Enjoy the snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 00z HRDPS would suggest St. Mary's/Calvert/Spotsy/Stafford need WSW's lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: How much are your forecast to get? Enjoy the snow! Most guidance has us anywhere from 12 to 20 inches. Of course that's 10.1 ratio. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 FV3 looks almost identical to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: FV3 looks almost identical to the GFS. At this point i am just hoping for some model error. They are locked on to central VA special. Not sure that will change much between now and game time. 50 to 100 miles is a big ask but I’m asking anyway. ‘‘Tis the season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: At this point i am just hoping for some model error. They are locked on to central VA special. Not sure that will change much between now and game time. 50 to 100 miles is a big ask but I’m asking anyway. ‘‘Tis the season We yanked it as far north as we could. There has to be a cutoff and it happens to start at the PWC border. Just what it is. Flush an ice cube and hope for the best. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 We just need a northern edge death band to set up shop over PWC. Stranger things have happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We yanked it as far north as we could. There has to be a cutoff and it happens to start at the PWC border. Just what it is. Flush an ice cube and hope for the best. VAZ052-091100- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Including the cities of Dale City, Manassas, Woodbridge, Lake Ridge, and Montclair 1026 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 .REST OF TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds around 5 mph. .SUNDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation around an inch possible. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 20s. North winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, yoda said: 00z RGEM 0.07" QPF at DCA South trend continues What south trend? Back it up with something...Looking good here, despite what some might say. 30.7/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Fv3 is much colder than the others for RIC. A lot of other models have us flip to rain/sleet right as the good stuff shows up. If we can keep the mixing to a minimum, we might get a lot. I'm glad I live Southwest of RIC proper. Still preparing myself to be disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The NBC4 meteorologist said 4” for Fredericksburg on the 11 o’clock... hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just a disastrous day of modeling for the dc metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 We fringe? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Waiting on the meteogram but seems UKMET holds at least. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Moisture laden but squashed by a high that would have suppressed March Superstorm 93. moistue up to southern KY but like other poster said, central-north central KY is needed for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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