BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 No advantage west or east with this one. It’s all latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Was there an output for the 18z euro? Just a hair north of 12z, not worth mentioning really. Noise rather than a helpful trend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 When are the next big model runs this evening time wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Just now, Hurricanegiants said: When are the next big model runs this evening time wise? 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: When are the next big model runs this evening time wise? NAM to Euro 9-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 So... it's actually happening here in central VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: Did you all see this? DT must think it’s going a bit further north if I’m reading it right. LOL there’s no way I’m getting 2-4” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: LOL there’s no way I’m getting 2-4” We can hope broski. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: So... it's actually happening here in central VA? Perhaps but that doesn’t mean you get to post the Ron Paul “it’s hapoening” meme. Give it another model cycle. Trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ036-508-090715- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0011.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ Nelson-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Nelson County, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. The heaviest snow will be Sunday afternoon and early evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Travel will be difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ025-037-090715- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0007.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0027.181209T1100Z-181210T0500Z/ Augusta-Albemarle- 602 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Snow expected with accumulations around 2 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Augusta and Albemarle Counties. * WHEN...From 6 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 A separate concern for heavy snow in south-central VA would be phase given that the uppers never become better than marginal, and the depth of cold air is not dramatic. I expect places like RIC could see enough precip for 10" snowfalls but how much will lie on the ground at any given time as snow? Maybe 2-4" ... somewhat higher regions further west might do better with their ratios. If the storm does jog north and overspreads DCA to BWI then snow ratios should be better since the storm would have to tackle a colder air mass in place there. So the odds on all snow would be good if there's anything to be had at all. My current view is 30% chance measurable for DCA, 15% for IAD to BWI, 50-50 in southern suburbs. Best snowfall locations likely to be near NC-VA border west of Danville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 From updated LWX AFD as of 720 PM 12z and 18z guidance has unanimously shifted northward. Mean QPF from model output has risen to nearly an inch at the southern most reaches of our CWA (southern Nelson County), and just under a half inch near CHO. The northern edge of accumulating snow remains a challenge, but there is a non- zero/increasing chance for flurries or a light coating of snow to near I-66/US-50, in line with the northern edge of a baroclinic leaf developing upstream on satellite (marking the northern edge of stronger synoptic upward motion). As such, have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for Nelson County and the central Blue Ridge Mountains, with a Winter Weather Advisory for Albemarle and Augusta Counties. Winter Weather Advisories may need to be extended farther north in area into the Virginia Piedmont and portions of the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, and Winter Storm Warnings may need to be extended north in area into portions of the central Shenandoah Valley and perhaps as far north as the Virginia Piedmont. Will re-assess headline decisions with the 00z guidance later tonight. If the northward trend continues (and it has for the last few model runs), then snow amounts will need to be increased and headlines will have to extend farther north. The most likely forecast was tweaked up slightly from the 12z forecast, which leaned about 2/3rds on a straight blend of 12z guidance and 1/3 previous forecast for continuity`s sake, offering respect to the strong confluence zone to the north. However, some outlier ensemble members continue to show even higher significant snowfall amounts (see Winter Weather Page at www.weather.gov/lwx/winter for latest range of possibility graphics). Since this is a dynamic system with a lot of moisture and a tight heavy snowfall gradient, staying tuned to later forecast updates is prudent. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Snow likely now in Western PWC zone forecast. The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I am riding the edge on that. Literally the edge. Need a 10 mile tick north jiist to lock in flurries. Not too much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Its almost 40 degrees in Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 We do better when LWX is playing catchup during the storm. I’d be happy with a dusting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Its almost 40 degrees in Raleigh Too warm there. Too cold here. Both screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Its almost 40 degrees in Raleigh With 29F DP...not great going on set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The baroclinic leaf will save us up here tho. Northern fringe Deathband. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Too warm there. Too cold here. Both screwed. You're so bitter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: You're so bitter lol I really am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 hours ago, AU74 said: Okay, but Google agrees with my memory from when I worked in Chantilly 40 years ago. Right at Cville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Oh noes. SREF bumped south a little from 15z. ::it’snothappening:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Oh noes. SREF bumped south a little from 15z. ::it’snothappening::Often a north trend at the last minute send up trending south at last second 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9:00 NAM soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Oh noes. SREF bumped south a little from 15z. ::it’snothappening:: It's not updated on the mag website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 9:00 NAM soon?It’s running. Time to will it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: It's not updated on the mag website SV has it. 0.25” went from north of DC to just south of the city. It’s not worth analyzing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now