Wxdavis5784 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Where? 50% chance snow from NWS for MBY in middle Calvert County. 40% tomorrow night. Hoping the percentages go up!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18z RGEM still looks good... waiting on QPF total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3k has the IR deform band in place. Radar will catch up at 0zWow that amazing really. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 18z RGEM still looks good... waiting on QPF total Actually, a bit of a south jog with the QPF field 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We don’t want to be in the bullseye until 12 z tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Agreed. Wonder if that will spread out a bit. Cant help thinking that we’ve watched this time period for 3 weeks or more, tracked this storm for 10-12 days, and it’s going to be a MECS that we miss by a hundred miles or less. I hope we do ok here in RIC, but it will feel bittersweet if folks up north don’t cash in as well. Really appreciate the work y’all do and hoping this one shares the love with y’all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Actually, a bit of a south jog with the QPF field Oh noes. It’s over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, H2O said: Oh noes. It’s over. According to Ji yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18z GFS shifts the precip field north by a hair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 GFS op doesn't have the northern trend and it hasn't shown precip this far north at all today fwiw. There's a reason it's getting replaced! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 FV3 is south, darn http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_020_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: FV3 is south, darn http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_020_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif We toss. SREFs better at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, snjókoma said: The 3K NAM has a whopping 0.0" of precipitation for anywhere north of Woodbridge. I hear you, but not all of us live in the northern part of the forum, so the modeled weather obviously isn't the same . 11/15/18 was snow for you and sleet for me, for example. I was asking about the relative verification scores of the 3k NAM within 24 hours. edit: I thought someone posted a map of snow falling into MD from the 3k. It must have been the virga that was being discussed. My apologies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, Rvarookie said: I hope we do ok here in RIC, but it will feel bittersweet if folks up north don’t cash in as well. Really appreciate the work y’all do and hoping this one shares the love with y’all. Nah, don't feel bad or sweat it. The reality is we all don't give a lick about any yard except our own. I'm not mad that you are cashing in at all. I'm rooting for asteroids and fireballs in your yard and blizzards in mine but I'm not mad or anything. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: FV3 is south, darn http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_020_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif that is at 9:00 am, before any of the models were showing snow in my area, let alone NoVa and DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: See you at 00z I mean, duh. Who said I wasn't going to be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Why have poke chips not been moved all in yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Somehow the precip shield improves on the fv3 after being a good bit south of 12Z http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif qpf http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p24/gfs_namer_036_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Somehow the precip shield improves on the fv3 after being a good bit south of 12Z http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/850_temp_mslp_precip/gfs_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Why have poke chips not been moved all in yet? I'm pretty sure Ji cashed in his chips and bought a couple bars of Xanax and a handful of oxy's. Oh, and a pint of Beam to wash them down. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I am legit excited now. I think I have a real shot at spotting a few stray flakes imy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I’m hearing through good sources that roads are likely going to cave it you’re planning a Friendsgiving in places such as Carbondale or Dover. But ONLY in those areas....straight face emoji... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm pretty sure Ji cashed in his chips and bought a couple bars of Xanax and a handful of oxy's. Oh, and a pint of Beam to wash them down. Reminding me of my year and a half as a social worker on the Allegheny front of West va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Inthepines said: Reminding me of my year and a half as a social worker on the Allegheny front of West va Can't blame you for popping Xanax and oxys like tic tacs when dealing with that stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Lol https://mobile.twitter.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1071515068372840450 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hmmm. I said a couple of days ago that I thought 66 would end up the cutoff. I think i am going to bust. Maybe route 50 instead? Either way that puts me out of the game. Congrats to ya'll down south. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Can't blame you for popping Xanax and oxys like tic tacs when dealing with that stuff. Makes my job as a high school history teacher look like a breeze. A lot of awesome snow (and stories though). Hopefully we can will an inch tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Something doesn't add up right with fv3. 36 hr precip isn't the same as total qpf at hr36... and http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/namer/precip_p24/gfs_namer_036_precip_p24.gif The contour gradients aren't the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hmmm. I said a couple of days ago that I thought 66 would end up the cutoff. I think i am going to bust. Maybe route 50 instead? Either way that puts me out of the game. Congrats to ya'll down south. Enjoy. I thought 50 and 66 crossed each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Can't blame you for popping Xanax and oxys like tic tacs when dealing with that stuff. Klonopin > Xanax 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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