BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: 12z EPS is farther north Now that is a nice look! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Berk had a graphic earlier on Twitter showing the baroclinic leaf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I think we all see snow tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Shovel party!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Berk had a graphic earlier on Twitter showing the baroclinic leaf Except that wasn’t the baroclinic leaf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose. 15z SREFs also bumped north. 0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County. 9z had 0.1” south of DC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose. 15z SREFs also bumped north. 0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County. 9z had 0.1” south of DC. Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol They’re basically useless. Only thing they help with is passing the time until the 18z suite and sometimes they sniff out (or support) overall north/south trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol Do they get retired along with the NAM I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 No sense in trying to play it cool now that the freight train is rolling north. Too late for big snow here but I can see a crunchy leaf or two covered 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: No sense in trying to play it cool now that the freight train is rolling north. Too late for big snow here but I can see a crunchy leaf or two covered Recall the November storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: 12z EPS is farther north Perhaps some consolation flurries for Baltimore?....Please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Srefs are seriously due for a coup lol So uh...since the srefs are so useless, why are they even still a thing? Lol Are they good for something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Sref plumes went up pretty big time. Don't think this north move is finished. Mean is about 2 with several higher members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, nj2va said: Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose. 15z SREFs also bumped north. 0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County. 9z had 0.1” south of DC. FWIW, the JMA model also shifted the heavy precip shield north...looks significant Dusting off these models lol - anyone got the latest Korean model? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I think those that have been here a long time knew this would happen and have stayed quiet about it. It’s because my achy knee and Bunyans are more accurate than the GFSFV3EURO 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Now I have to gas up the new snow blower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Wonderdog said: Now I have to gas up the new snow blower. Wonderdog...don’t do it. If you do I will gas up my Jeep and put it in 4 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Heights are higher so far on the NAM should be coming north again through 12. At 15 nice weaknes forming and confluence is breaking down sooner again. High is another MB lower then 12z and the Hudson bay storm is faster and deeper Should be a good result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 NWS now has 40% chance of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: NWS now has 40% chance of snow tomorrow. Sref is 40 percent chance at dca as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Negnao said: Sref is 40 percent chance at dca as well. Chance of snow? Chance of accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 RGEM ensemble basically tightened up the gradient from yesterday's 12z run, with a bump up in the number of members giving Richmond at least 0.1" qpf as snow. After today's 12z runs, it doesn't look like such an outlier any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 EPS E38 is the best of the bunch so we'll hug this one for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, Beachin said: Heights are higher so far on the NAM should be coming north again through 12. At 15 nice weaknes forming and confluence is breaking down sooner again. High is another MB lower then 12z and the Hudson bay storm is faster and deeper Should be a good result Good obs on that! Confluence does look a little weaker up in Maine. LP is ever so slightly north at 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Good obs on that! Confluence does look a little weaker up in Maine. LP is ever so slightly north at 15. Se Ridge is stronger to along with a deeper ridge in the west. 500mb looks great definitely gonna be north and probably stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just as an FYI for us... AKQ has gone WSWatch for the counties bordering the LWX southern zones (aka around EZF) URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, and Sandston 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below freezing. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond Metro. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Chance of snow? Chance of accumulation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Just as an FYI for us... AKQ has gone WSWatch for the counties bordering the LWX southern zones (aka around EZF) URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Wakefield VA 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400- /O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/ Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa- Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover- Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham, Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills, Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro, Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville, Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams, Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville, Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights, Richmond, and Sandston 250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below freezing. * WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond Metro. * WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night. Saw that, hoping we can get to advisory type stuff around EZF. 18z NAM looking ok so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 EPS now gives BWI (Andrews AFB) a 14% (26%) chance of > 1" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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