dallen7908 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro EPS has been useless...even a hindrance. It gave us 6-8 inches at 00z snow mean. Then the 12z euro comes out and gives us nothing Always best to look at the median Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that? Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north? Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not saying it will happen, but wasn't it Jan 2010 that there was a storm that was going to stay south of us in NC and slowly but surely it came north? It can happen. Not always, of course, but to echo what others have said, 100 miles in 5 days isn't the end all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. I agree. I get that models changing output gets frustrating, but if events were fairly well locked in by day 6-8 it would render at least the tracking part of this hobby rather moot. Like tracking the sunrise, baring a catastrophic disaster it will rise and set so what's the use of tracking it. Analyzing panels, discussing what could, should, or might happen are what makes the game. Sure the rare biggies that lock in from longer leads are memorable and that adds to their lore but I think over time that would get boring if it was the status quo. I think folks lose that perspective sometimes, or maybe I'm just an odd ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. Excellent points Mr. Chill. I can think of about 10,000 times (exaggerated slightly) we have been hoping for that kind of shift within 24-48 hrs. Guidance certainly is trending the wrong direction, but there isnt a snowballs chance in hell I throw the towel in on this one 4-5 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 31 minutes ago, Ji said: how good are the GEPS lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018120512&fh=126 NCEP used to post GEFS and GEPS verification scores, but for some reason this year they no longer post scores for the GEPS (or NAEFS). From what I've seen the GEPS are generally better than the GEFS in the long range (more spread) and worse in the short range (more spread). At this range, they should be similar to the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. In all seriousness, we have models advertising a storm 100 hours or so out and it’s within a couple hundred miles of being a big hit. Too soon to throw in the towel in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 12 minutes ago, yoda said: Not saying it will happen, but wasn't it Jan 2010 that there was a storm that was going to stay south of us in NC and slowly but surely it came north? It can happen. Not always, of course, but to echo what others have said, 100 miles in 5 days isn't the end all. Jan 30, 2010 was showing up on the analogs earlier this week I think for this storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I agree...until all the pieces are onshore no need to worry about run to run differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I agree. I get that models changing output gets frustrating, but if events were fairly well locked in by day 6-8 it would render at least the tracking part of this hobby rather moot. Like tracking the sunrise, baring a catastrophic disaster it will rise and set so what's the use of tracking it. Analyzing panels, discussing what could, should, or might happen are what makes the game. Sure the rare biggies that lock in from longer leads are memorable and that adds to their lore but I think over time that would get boring if it was the status quo. I think folks lose that perspective sometimes, or maybe I'm just an odd ball. NWP can nail stable high pressure a week out no problem so it's not like models "can't" get it right at long leads because they can. Synoptic events are exponentially more complicated. This particular one is a bit easier because it's mostly a southern stream storm. Think back to 13-14 or 14-15... lol. We had events that weren't even on the radar until 5 days out and practically every single one shifted around quite a bit even inside of 48 hours. Progressive northern stream events are the absolute hardest for models to figure out. Just being close at 24-48 hours is enough to keep you very interested. This particular event has a northern stream component that could change things. The CMC showed that today. That shortwave is still in the Gulf of Alaska. Is the CMC's solution possible? Absolutely. Not much support for that solution with the 12z suite but who knows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. In all seriousness, we have models advertising a storm 100 hours or so out and it’s within a couple hundred miles of being a big hit. Too soon to throw in the towel in my opinion. Yeah but the EURO just disappointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not sure if it has been posted earlier but GEFS have a cluster of members just off the coast of VA CMC-like while the other cluster is well East. All or nothing event incoming?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 For a guy that enjoys saying "that's not right" cranky seems to be mailing this one in https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1070398620799782912 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 First post (wish it could be more positive): 12z EPS mean snowfall for DCA is 3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS strongly supports the op (shocker). It still has enough coastal runner solutions to stay interested but there's nothing worth discussing in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This eps map doesn't look that bad to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 EPS BWI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: EPS BWI What's not to like with those %?! eta: especially d5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It’s apparent we have a moderate+ précip event moving in from south. Not a phaser but rather The classic approach. How strong and precisely where located the High is will cause the models to jump and it’s gonna be 12-24 hours before onset before that locks in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Where exactly was the snow cutoff from the euro op? Everyone just fled after seeing it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Where exactly was the snow cutoff from the euro op? Everyone just fled after seeing it... Just north of RIC. EZF is 0.02" of QPF for reference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Where exactly was the snow cutoff from the euro op? Everyone just fled after seeing it... Richmond barely in the .1” QPF. Scraps to the north up to EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Busy at work just checking in, I thought the Euro was going move North. Still seems firm in a Southern solution but what got my attention is something I hardly see mentioned , at least in this case as to why the storm is staying South. I mean I heard the about the NS vorts, the confluence, high pressure and the western ridge too but then I came across some sort of involvement with the SPV . HM was mentioning the " The trough down 60W is part of the full vortex and all of its associated cyclones in the troposphere." Seems that when you look at the SPV in 3D you can see this better. This is the first time I read about this and the 3D look at the vortex really adds a nice visual depicting how it can be formed in odd shapes and changes in height, for example it can be whole at the upper levels and split like a pair of pants at the bottom. You can see it better below in the animations or visit the thread as I don't want to post too many of these. There is involvement here with the pattern and the storm and this is acting a untraditional block I think I guess this sums it up here from HM , " Looking at the big picture, this isn't the most ideal way to slow down the "50-50 low" and suppress a coastal storm (North Atlantic blocking is the best recipe for that). However, you can visualize how this full structure would help to slow down the tropospheric-portion somewhat" 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It is only Wednesday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 ! looks like a triple phaser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Icon kicking off the north trend at 18z. You could see heights out in front being less of a hammer pretty early on. Still an epic tease but less of an epic disaster than 12z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: ! looks like a triple phaser Why are you posting the lowest quality maps you can find? And a triple phase is a huge sub 970, 510dm bomb, not a little low over the gulf coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Amped said: Why are you posting the lowest quality maps you can find? And a triple phase is a huge sub 970, 510dm bomb, not a little low over the gulf coast. well.. 3 pieces are phasing. It probably gets into the 970s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: well.. 3 pieces are phasing. It probably gets into the 970s I just see the wall of 1040 Highs depicted.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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