SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Hits the wall. It’s a moving wall. We just need it to move a little more than the models are seeing. That’s our angle and its all we got. This still gives me a couple inches in PWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hits the wall. Brutal cutoff... Leesburg flurries and EZF 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Amazing at how the precipitation is being suppressed. Earlier this morning the precip line ran right along the KY/TN border - almost the entire length of it. Was gradually pushed southward over the last several hours. Is starting to gain some latitude, but very slowly... Given how much rain TX and LA received, and the deep greens in the flow, the nrn wall is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Per the ncep site, .1” of precip line on the FV3 ends up a little S of DC. CHO somewhere in between .25-.5”, RIC .5”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: It’s a moving wall. We just need it to move a little more than the models are seeing. That’s our angle and its all we got. This still gives me a couple inches in PWC should we just assume a typical model 50 mile error bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hits the wall. Just brutal. At this point, I'd rather for it to be well south and not even get that close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: should we just assume a typical model 50 mile error bias? No, because that's favorable for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Out to 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Watch us in Richmond will manage to get into that dry air / sleet fest somehow. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Out to 44lol if I’ve left CHO for that I’ll be somewhat despondent tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, eaglesin2011 said: Watch us in Richmond will manage to get into that dry air / sleet fest somehow. Ha you have no idea how bad i want richmond to fail for this storm 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Oh I do.. Being also an Eagles fan... Tomorrow could be a complete win/fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Hits the wall. All we are is just another brick in the wall... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The RGEM used to be a better model...last few winters its been pretty bad. HRDRDSRPS isn’t any better probably. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hmmm. 12Z RGEM even gets an inch into my area. Must hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 BWI chances of >1, 3, 6, and 12" according to EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Are all the Canadian models running with the same data? That’s probably the wrong term but hopefully you know what I mean. 12z CMC holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: Sarcasm? This is the type of storm Richmond would typically cash in on. They often miss out on storms that nail places just north. I hope the GFS is wrong. That would be pretty brutal. I was basically just parroting DT with the the Richmond 'snow hole' comment. I sincerely apologize to all the snow lovers in the Richmond vicinity. I meant no ill will. I am rooting for an over-performer for y'all. Good luck. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Per the ncep site, .1” of precip line on the FV3 ends up a little S of DC. CHO somewhere in between .25-.5”, RIC .5”. Do you have a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'm just going to hug the RGEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 maybe the Canadien model people handle the northern stream better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Do you have a pic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is the type of storm Richmond would typically cash in on. They often miss out on storms that nail places just north. I hope the GFS is wrong. That would be pretty brutal. I was basically just parroting DT with the the Richmond 'snow hole' comment. I sincerely apologize to all the snow lovers in the Richmond vicinity. I meant no ill will. I am rooting for an over-performer for y'all. Good luck. Well that's normaly the case... Avoiding the dry air/mix is always a fight here... The storm really getting going kinda scares me... Because that is what it normally brings along. HOPEFULLY when/if the heavy precipitation moves it will be all snow & we will cash in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Are all the Canadian models running with the same data? That’s probably the wrong term but hopefully you know what I mean. 12z CMC holds. Too bad Canada is third string in the weather model biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Too bad Canada is third string in the weather model biz. Yeah. I dont know what happened to to the RGEM. It used to be a really good model. Last winter it was absolutely pathetic though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: you have no idea how bad i want richmond to fail for this storm I’m going to PM you deck pics all day long tomorrow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is the type of storm Richmond would typically cash in on. They often miss out on storms that nail places just north. I hope the GFS is wrong. That would be pretty brutal. I was basically just parroting DT with the the Richmond 'snow hole' comment. I sincerely apologize to all the snow lovers in the Richmond vicinity. I meant no ill will. I am rooting for an over-performer for y'all. Good luck. Lol!! I was just wondering. GFS against everything else??? I’ll take everything else haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: I’m going to PM you deck pics all day long tomorrow. It's amazing how one letter could totally change the nature of this post. 2 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Are all the Canadian models running with the same data? That’s probably the wrong term but hopefully you know what I mean. 12z CMC holds. I know what you mean - and yes, there's a reason they're all showing similar solutions. The HRDPS doesn't have the RGEM's wet bias, so it's probably more realistic here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's amazing how one letter could totally change the nature of this post. Duck pics? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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