showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north. Even with somewhat weaker/retreating HP to our north, the air is pretty dry. I would question whether any of that light precip on the northern fringe would even make it to the ground- weak lift/sinking air from the High would suggest the ground truth would be far less "impressive" than it appears on (some) guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Even with somewhat weaker/retreating HP to our north, the air is pretty dry. I would question whether any of that light precip on the northern fringe would even make it to the ground- weak lift/sinking air from the High would suggest the ground truth would be far less "impressive" than it appears on (some) guidance. Just hunting for positives here for the DC crew and here you go throwing cold water on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Slight bump north of the precip on the 06Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Just hunting for positives here for the DC crew and here you go throwing cold water on them. I am getting into the Xmas spirit. *Grinch* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just anecdotal, but just about every time we get one of these pure southern sliders, I will have light snow in my forecast for the modeled 'northern edge'. Usually I end up with nothing- more typical with these events that the cutoff for actual precip ends up in lower S MD over towards SBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just anecdotal, but just about every time we get one of these pure southern sliders, I will have light snow in my forecast for the modeled 'northern edge'. Usually I end up with nothing- more typical with these events that the cutoff for actual precip ends up in lower S MD over towards SBY. Think what gets my goat is that piece of energy that screws up the initial system also screws up the secondary low that develops off the coast. Gives us a strong positively tilted trough to the west of our second system that runs it OTS. If that energy to the NE were to maybe exit sooner we would possibly be looking at at least a neutral trough, if not possibly a neg, to the west of the that second low which would help tighten the low to the coast and bring it up somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, showmethesnow said: Think what gets my goat is that piece of energy that screws up the initial system also screws up the secondary low that develops off the coast. Gives us a strong positively tilted trough to the west of our second system that runs it OTS. If that energy to the NE were to maybe exit sooner we would possibly be looking at at least a neutral trough, if not possibly a neg, to the west of the that second low which would help tighten the low to the coast and bring it up somewhat. Lol I am kinda done doing detailed analysis with this one. It is really disappointing overall because we identified this period early on as one with so much potential, we tracked the f out of it, and the end result is a major snowstorm well to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Lol I am kinda done doing detailed analysis with this one. It is really disappointing overall because we identified this period early on as one with so much potential, we tracked the f out of it, and the end result is a major snowstorm well to our south. So you are saying onward and upward and lets start tracking our Christmas Eve/Christmas storm? I'm down with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north.Slight dosent cut it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Late in the game for ensembles but I will note we saw a slight shift north of the precip on the overnight EPS. Slightly under a quarter of the members now place DC in the extreme outer edges of the precip field. Also seeing a slightly quicker relax of the initial confluence to the NE as well as slightly weaker high pressures to our north. Slight dosent cut it Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 35 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc CMC is going Down with the ship. And I’m going down with the CMC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, osfan24 said: I give all of you credit for still analyzing the storm. If it were still Wednesday, I'd have a little hope. I'd just be happy to see some snow falling tomorrow afternoon while I watch my Eagles getting pummeled in their secondary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, Midlo Snow Maker said: Here is some hope for DC 6z cmc 6z CMC and 6z Euro from what I saw are now similar in depiction of LP placement I believe around the 33-36hr time frame. Qpf has gone up considerably down this way now. I was looking at obs down south. Lubbock TX was forecasted barely anything and they have like 6” on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 That one storm idk how many years ago was supposed to bring 4-8 up until onset then went to pa instead and we got rain/sleet. Still holding hope for accumulating snow especially in a nino. 100 mile shift is all it takes and we’ve seen that happen we can get as much as Richmond is supposed to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Pinning this for obs for our lucky southern half of the subforum. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It’s unreal how close this was to a big hit for the majority of our subforum members. Really just a timing issue - just a tick faster or slower here or there and we’re in the goods. I pretty much discount the November snow because it was such an anomaly, so this would have been a great “real” start to the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Still could be a small hit for DC. Models are just models, sir. They are wrong and wrong often. 150 miles too far SE wrong? Not typically but it can certainly happen. Especially with a southern slider in east December. We needed this storm to either speed up or slow down a little bit to allow things to align better. Timing is literally perfect for screwing us over. Come on Canadian vort!!!! Move the **** back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 A lot of times every model can be wrong with the northern extent of the precip shield. Sometimes the radar day of will give you an idea if there's any fighting chance. However, the NW confluent flow is likely going to eat up the northern shield, and if it doesnt, dry air and virga will be an issue with little forcing. I'm pulling for you guys in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 For those still watching, the 12z NAM was a slight shrink south from its 06z position. Perhaps it'll get more in line with the 3k. Heckuva model war going on. Canadians & NAM vs. EURO/FV3/ICON vs. GFS/WRFs. Differences in those camps is going to mean a lot for the southern half of the subforum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 55 minutes ago, mattie g said: It’s unreal how close this was to a big hit for the majority of our subforum members. Really just a timing issue - just a tick faster or slower here or there and we’re in the goods. I pretty much discount the November snow because it was such an anomaly, so this would have been a great “real” start to the season. We won’t soon forget this one. Flush hit that migrated south in December...whoda thought that. On the plus side I think I understand the word confluence now so it’s a wash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3k also shrunk south a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We won’t soon forget this one. Flush hit that migrated south in December...whoda thought that. On the plus side I think I understand the word confluence now so it’s a wash. You’ll forget it as soon as you get a snowstorm. I’m already over it...sometimes it snows here, sometimes it doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: You’ll forget it as soon as you get a snowstorm. I’m already over it...sometimes it snows here, sometimes it doesn’t. Yup. And mostly it doesn't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 You look at the new satellite image from this morning, you wonder how in the hell that storm is gonna miss us to the South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though. Local Mets are saying 3-6 with a raise to 4-8 is possible tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Poor Richmond. Truly is a snow hole. Might see a couple inches though. You are usually a good poster, maybe you should take your bitterness to the LR thread to track another miss for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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