WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The 3K doesnt even get precip into Richmond I dont think. Hours 42 through 50 it does (on TT) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Once again RGEM is an outlier with precip reaching up to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 0Z RGEM is either a bit north of 18Z with the precip shield, or faster with the precip, or both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: 0Z RGEM is either a bit north of 18Z with the precip shield, or faster with the precip, or both. You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone. Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone. Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield. I agree with your analysis of the 2 main camps, but even the EURO/GFS/UKMET all moved the precip further north in their latest runs compared to their previous. The magnitude of the trend may not be large, but the direction is clear (as of now) and indicates to me that the final solution isn't locked in or written in stone yet. Or perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I agree with your analysis of the 2 main camps, but even the EURO/GFS/UKMET all moved the precip further north in their latest runs compared to their previous. The magnitude of the trend may not be large, but the direction is clear (as of now) and indicates to me that the final solution isn't locked in or written in stone yet. Or perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see? lol Storms like these are always far from it. There is always some last minute trend and a lot of times you need to rely on observations and forecasting based on nowcasting as the storm develops more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Often when the RGEM and 3k NAM differ on where the cutoff is going to be, it's because of how they handle virga. I think that may be the case here. The below images are from the 00z 3k NAM run. They alternate between simulated composite reflectivity (with p-type) and simulated base reflectivity. The virga reaches north of DC. I suspect the RGEM has more of the precip reaching the ground. The RGEM could be wrong (it's made similar mistakes in the past), but it shows that we don't necessarily need a change in track to see some precipitation around DC. Just less dry air near the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 We didn’t step back so we just need to really on good old fashioned luck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Wherever it goes, things are exploding along texas gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Wherever it goes, things are exploding along to gulf coast Whereever it goes. It will not make it to MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Whereever it goes. It will not make it to MD. Nah, it depends on the barometric pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Well, CMC holds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yeah, its too bad CMC is out on its own island, because that would be really nice to see around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yeah, its too bad CMC is out on its own island, because that would be really nice to see around hereIt’s Canada vs the World. RGEM & HDRPS are real close too and are big hits for Central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Did the models have 50dbz off/along Texas gulf coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Nah, it depends on the barometric pressure Baro way too high now. Need it to east’e off to 30.25 by 24 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Did the models have 50dbz off/along Texas gulf coast Juice that bomb up and till the dice with the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 FV3 gets the flurries 15 miles to my south at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Interesting... 00z FV3 gets 0.05" QPF line to S Fairfax and 0.01" QPF line just north of DC EZF into S MD ~0.20-0.25" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Interesting... 00z FV3 gets 0.05" QPF line to S Fairfax and 0.01" QPF line just north of DC EZF into S MD ~0.20-0.25" QPF We just need one of our players to jump in our favor and we could be looking at an advisory level event for DC and south. Be interesting to look at the surface map tomorrow night just to see if we have s punchers chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Could this be a Nowcast event!? Could the CMC be right? Probably not.... but it’s possible. DC still has a shot at 2-4 if things go right and we see a broader / slightly north precipitation shield. Not discounting anything quite yet. It’s been trending ever so slightly north. We are definitely not seeing warning shows, but I won’t discount advisory snowfall until the storm comes and goes. Wouldn’t be the first or last time models were wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Euro gets 0.1” just south of EZF which is about a 25 mile shift north from 12z. Hopefully meaningful for the Central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Flurries get to the southern border of FFX border. ::itshappening:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 UKIE also shifted north. Edge of precip is EZF, 0.2" line through CHO, 0.4" RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I could be wrong but from what I see on radar now it already looks a little south to me. I think I saw some models show some pretty good rain totals in Dallas already by 18z but that doesn’t seem to be the case...they’re just getting in on good rain now Buda TX got at least 4 inches of rain. If that thing shifts north it will be juiced up but good. Edit: Wrong storm lol. Need to read the topic title lol You'll still get a lot of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6z nam with significant North shift... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, peribonca said: 6z nam with significant North shift... Sure does. DC is only a 25-50 mile shift out from somewhat decent measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Low isn't doing us any favors as it doesn't ramp up like the NAM 00Z. Seeing a 1003 mb vs. a 996 mb off OBX. But we are seeing continued weakening of high pressures to the north, especially earlier in the run, which is allowing an expansion northward of the precip field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Woah... 6z nam went pretty far north! DC is pretty damn close to seeing something appreciable. Come on baby... just a few more bumps north and central md is in on the action too Ugh. This is going to be so depressing to watch glide south of us. It’ll even appear as if it’s coming straight toward us and then will hit a giant wall of dry air. 6z nam eases up on the vort so the storm is able to track to a higher latitude. Hopefully 00z nam tonight shows another big shift agree with the observation that models have been weakening this storm for a few runs now. The northern feature never catches up and things remain flat at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 SREF paints 2-4” through dc proper, especially points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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