Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I guess it matters where you think you live. I read this to mean Central VA is the southern part of the forum: Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I’ve seen enough of a trend that i believe the 0z could be entertaining. The North trend (weaker confluence) is coming. May not be enough for us but it’s worth a couple more model runs. Flurries would be a win at this point. You could get in on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I’ll set my bar at seeing flakes falling from the sky. Will take a burst of flurries at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Flurries would be a win at this point. You could get in on that. Very true. But i want bob chill and the MD crew to see some flakes fly. That will mean I’m getting measurable most likely. Keep that North Trend going for another 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: I’ll set my bar at seeing flakes falling from the sky. Will take a burst of flurries at this point. Tough call you and I..we will fail just short is my prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Fv3 at 30 hours has confluence in the Atlantic provinces continue the weakening trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. Yeah this feels pretty similar to the Jan 17 southern slider, except not as cold up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical. Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from! I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton). I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow. We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one. I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through all the northern members getting snow. I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south! I grew up in upstate NY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Tough call you and I..we will fail just short is my prediction. I think we get a surprise dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from! I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton). I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow. We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one. I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through you all northern members getting snow. I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south! I grew up in upstate NY. Nice man! You’re gonna need a real bump haha! The Canadian at 60 looks tasty 18z run I’m referencing. Has a 993 sitting over Hatteras at that juncture. Most of the high res 18z models have trended favorably. I expect it to continue imo as PSU has alluded to the northern trend which normally occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Very true. But i want bob chill and the MD crew to see some flakes fly. That will mean I’m getting measurable most likely. Keep that North Trend going for another 48 hours Bob deserves the snow. He really puts out some quality posts. PSU as well...showme...I have to believe ours will come eventually. Just hope it’s not March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from! I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton). I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow. We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one. I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through you all northern members getting snow. I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south! I grew up in upstate NY. Wow! That’s impressive for Wednesday do you have some elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Nice man! You’re gonna need a real bump haha! The Canadian at 60 looks tasty 18z run I’m referencing. Has a 993 sitting over Hatteras at that juncture. Most of the high res 18z models have trended favorably. I expect it to continue imo as PSU has alluded to the northern trend which normally occurs. You live in the mid Atlantic. We don’t say we live in the south. I didn’t know Mason or Dixon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Inthepines said: Wow! That’s impressive for Wednesday do you have some elevation? 1545' - What is weird is that I work 18 miles southeast of my house where we got far less and nothing that stuck to roads nor much on the grass. I drove home to a pleasant surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: You live in the mid Atlantic. We don’t say we live in the south. I didn’t know Mason or Dixon. What’s your gut telling you on this one man? I think the 0z models are going to continue to trend favorably for me. It may just miss you guys up there but I think there will be a north trend. Canadian has been solid run after run and you are seeing some of the other models now trend slightly toward the more amped solution. CMC maps were precariously close for the DC/BWI guys just now. Never say never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Lol 18z GGEM at hours 54 and 60 precip maps... if only they would be correct... too bad they won't be FWIW, meteograms show 7 to 8mm of snow at DCA... which roughly translates to a little over 0.25" QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 FV3 a tick north too. Precip up to extreme SE Fairfax County. 0.5" through RIC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol 18z GGEM at hours 54 and 60 precip maps... if only they would be correct... too bad they won't be FWIW, meteograms show 7 to 8mm of snow at DCA... which roughly translates to a little over 0.25" QPF Meteocentre has 18z ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Meteocentre has 18z ggem? Yes http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=18&mode=latest&map=na&mod=gemglb&lang=en 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. Not the same kind of storm or setup, but this reminds me of the one last year that was starting way down in like Miami and we tried to will west. In the end, it did keep trending a little more west and I think it slammed coastal areas but we got nada. This feels similar. Continues small ticks north, but only just enough to bring in the cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Meteocentre has 18z ggem? I think it's like the 18z Euro - a short run used to set the boundary conditions for the RGEM. Since the GGEM has been consistently on the northern edge of guidance, I'd be cautious about putting too much weight in the RGEM. With that said, for those of us north of DC the 12z RGEM ensemble is saying there's a chance... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Is it just me, or does the precip field at 33 on 00z NAM look a little more north and northeast compared to 39 at 18z? Not that it will matter much up here... but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Richmond is looking better and better on Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Is it just me, or does the precip field at 33 on 00z NAM look a little more north and northeast compared to 39 at 18z? Not that it will matter much up here... but still... Pretend I just imbedded the “It’s Happening” gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It gets into Richmond a tad warmer tho so not sure how that will play out with totals. Looks like a little more spread out to the se to me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I'll be looking at Central Kentucky tomorrow to see if they get anything... That'll be a good indicator of our "prospects" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It's not actually north at all it's just faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's not actually north at all it's just faster. Yeah I just saw that... oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 3K doesnt even get precip into Richmond I dont think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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