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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I guess it matters where you think you live.  I read this to mean Central VA is the southern part of the forum:

image.png.12f7bbca91ffc1cab1d85952f1c735cb.png

Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical. 

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It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’ve seen enough of a trend that i believe the 0z could be entertaining.  The North trend (weaker confluence) is coming. May not be enough for us but it’s worth a couple more model runs.

Flurries would be a win at this point.  You could get in on that.  

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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. 

Yeah this feels pretty similar to the Jan 17 southern slider, except not as cold up here. 

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19 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical. 

Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from!

I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton).  I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow.  We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one.  I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through all the northern members getting snow.  I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south!  I grew up in upstate NY.

IMG_0265.JPG

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2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from!

I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton).  I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow.  We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one.  I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through you all northern members getting snow.  I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south!  I grew up in upstate NY.

IMG_0265.JPG

Nice man! You’re gonna need a real bump haha! The Canadian at 60 looks tasty 18z run I’m referencing. Has a 993 sitting over Hatteras at that juncture. Most of the high res 18z models have trended favorably. I expect it to continue imo as PSU has alluded to the northern trend which normally occurs. 

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7 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Very true. But i want bob chill and the MD crew to see some flakes fly. That will mean I’m getting measurable most likely.  Keep that North Trend going for another 48 hours

Bob deserves the snow.  He really puts out some quality posts.  PSU as well...showme...I have to believe ours will come eventually.  Just hope it’s not March.  

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2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Glad you post here- you are a good poster and one of the many on here I am still learning from!

I am encouraged by the north trend for my location (near Staunton).  I also root for everyone in this subforum to get snow.  We all spend so much time tracking and analyzing and reading about snowstorms that we all deserve one.  I got 2" of sleet on 11/15/18, but lived vicariously through you all northern members getting snow.  I did get 2" from the Wednesday Norlun (pictured below), so I can't complain given that it is only early December and I now live in the south!  I grew up in upstate NY.

IMG_0265.JPG

Wow! That’s impressive for Wednesday do you have some elevation?

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Nice man! You’re gonna need a real bump haha! The Canadian at 60 looks tasty 18z run I’m referencing. Has a 993 sitting over Hatteras at that juncture. Most of the high res 18z models have trended favorably. I expect it to continue imo as PSU has alluded to the northern trend which normally occurs. 

You live in the mid Atlantic.  We don’t say we live in the south.  I didn’t know Mason or Dixon.  

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

You live in the mid Atlantic.  We don’t say we live in the south.  I didn’t know Mason or Dixon.  

What’s your gut telling you on this one man? I think the 0z models are going to continue to trend favorably for me. It may just miss you guys up there but I think there will be a north trend. Canadian has been solid run after run and you are seeing some of the other models now trend slightly toward the more amped solution. CMC maps were precariously close for the DC/BWI guys just now. Never say never!

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. 

Not the same kind of storm or setup, but this reminds me of the one last year that was starting way down in like Miami and we tried to will west. In the end, it did keep trending a little more west and I think it slammed coastal areas but we got nada. This feels similar. Continues small ticks north, but only just enough to bring in the cirrus.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Meteocentre has 18z ggem?

I think it's like the 18z Euro - a short run used to set the boundary conditions for the RGEM. 

Since the GGEM has been consistently on the northern edge of guidance, I'd be cautious about putting too much weight in the RGEM.  With that said, for those of us north of DC the 12z RGEM ensemble is saying there's a chance...

dO2Z4ON.png

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