PhineasC Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with but as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that I think we say this every single time there is a storm missing us to the south. It will look like it is headed right for us on radar and then hit the brick wall. It isn't even that cold here. This situation is a cruel joke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 0z shafted Richmond though right? No, 0.25 was south of RIC 0z so basically like 10 miles north of 0z with the precip shield though the 0.25 line was a bigger shift. Just need about 10 more runs of that to get flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 59 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: The models have trended a little North at 12z. Now we need a good happy hour to confirm/reinforce the North trend. And then 0z to bring us all the way back into the game. Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 By hour 54 we have seen a slower progression of the low as well as a fairly healthy bump north of precip. eta: Putting central Va back into the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The NAM made an appreciable jump north, still doesn't get precip that far north of Richmond but it is a significant shift. One or two more and we might be in the game for a couple inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Actually seeing a decent response/look from the 500s to the west at 54 as to where we might keep the low tucked in a little closer to the coast as well as maybe a little bump north of the lows northward progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 If you need to distract yourself from the pain (or support last-ditch weenie hopes) -- a fun read (plus interesting to note the level of uncertainty even 2-3 days out before that one): https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/model-live-blog-assessing-late-week-heavy-snow-threat/?utm_term=.443e2154967e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: I did. It’s suppressive up there but 1025 around here is not suppressive WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been??? I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June. Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude. So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic There were a couple of good things seen on this run. Besides the improvements to the west with the 500's and the slower progression which gave more time and room for more strengthening we also saw the confluence relaxing a little quicker. It was a good run and a step in the right direction at least for VA. But we are talking the NAM outside of its comfort zone so I would still probably defer to the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, Jebman said: WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been??? I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June. Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern! You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!! Sorry for the banter. If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormpc said: You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!! Sorry for the banter. If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well. Worried about this ice on 3k CONUS.... Snow totals seem to be going up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 hours ago, Interstate said: You might as well have just posted a picture of big bird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18z RGEM actually gets precip pretty far north. Flurry watch in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special We got 48 hours to pull an NYC in the 2016 Blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: I know it’s the Rgem at range. But man that’s an insignificant statistical error from being a DC special Just move that High pressure NE about 100 miles and weaken it a touch and boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It’s going to be the Wild West in here if it does trend back in our favor. No way we can risk Storm Mode again from superstition perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I could be wrong but from what I see on radar now it already looks a little south to me. I think I saw some models show some pretty good rain totals in Dallas already by 18z but that doesn’t seem to be the case...they’re just getting in on good rain now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS looks like its following suit of bumping the northern extent of precip north. Gets RIC in the 0.1" amounts now. Meaningless for NVA but these small shifts will have larger impacts in the southern part of the forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: GFS looks like its following suit of bumping the northern extent of precip north. Gets a little past RIC. Not near the extent of the ICON/RGEM though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Gets a little past RIC. Not near the extent of the ICON/RGEM though. The fact that the GFS bumped North is a good sign. If 0z shows more improvement then i like our odds at some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, Yeoman said: You might as well have just posted a picture of big bird I read this as "You might as well have just posted a picture of a big turd". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS looks like its following suit of bumping the northern extent of precip north. Gets RIC in the 0.1" amounts now. Meaningless for NVA but these small shifts will have larger impacts in the southern part of the forum. Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast..... lollll. Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast..... lollll. Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip. I guess it matters where you think you live. I read this to mean Central VA is the southern part of the forum: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 While the EPS chance for > 1 inch at BWI is still 0, the chances for DC increased from 2 to 6%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I’ve seen enough of a trend that i believe the 0z could be entertaining. The North trend (weaker confluence) is coming. May not be enough for us but it’s worth a couple more model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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