DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Through 72, euro looks better than yesterday's 12z at least in all the ways I can see. Confluence better, s/w deeper and northern s/w deeper and closer as well. How did last night's 0z look as a reminder? 0z was a decent tick north with features overall and a sloppy-ish phase with the N/s bowling ball diving in. I'd say so far this 12z looks like its not going to be much improvement if any over 0z, don't think it'll make the phase work (i.e. the GEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I didn't even know we had access to the 6z EPS until I saw PSU's post. A cluster of lows definitely NW of the mean (which is right off OBX) with a few up the Bay. I'd post but we can't do Euro maps unfortunately. Where has access to off hour EPS? Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Where has access to off hour EPS? Just wondering. wxmodels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 96 is better, sharper trough, looks like the confluence is moving out of the way a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 There is a hint of a SE ridge on the 96 euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: wxmodels Unlike weatherbell, they can be shared freely as long as it's not commercial use. wait - no i'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Like I've been saying I just want a hold. Tomorrow is when I want to start seeing better trends. Unfortunately, I'd say 12z today was a step back from 0z, more like yesterday's 12z run which didn't make any friends around the metros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yea, the trailing shortwave at hr102 isn't as good as last night and certainly not as good as the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 any momentum we make is crushed by going backwards again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 12z navgem is also much more suppressed. CMC is on an island by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing. I think its time to raise the white flag. We never trend towards those great ensemble potentials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing. Worse than 0z it seems but it looks better than the 12z GFS through 120 at least (at 500mb). Ugh at 144 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing. Agree 100%. I didn't see a single trend at any level that was in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, attml said: That's the Canadian, I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just looking at the h5 it looks pretty ugly to me. Maybe the worse run at h5 in a while relative to what we need. In every way. In the end the NS was slightly more suppressive (that's been a trend across guidance and it's offsetting improvements in the stj wave) and less phasing. This sounds like a losing battle...If it was gonna work out, surely we'd see evidence of some sort of a trend in our favor (save the Canadian...but how can we evn consider that possibility when nothing else supports it?). Can we just stick a fork in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 how good are the GEPS lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018120512&fh=126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 Well, I was giving it until today to start to improve...and we still have a long way to go. But frustration has finally set in and there's a solid chance we're shut out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: how good are the GEPS lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem-ens&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018120512&fh=126 I saw a verification chart a few years ago. Better than the ggem op and at this range the gfs op. But slightly worse than the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This sounds like a losing battle...If it was gonna work out, surely we'd see evidence of some sort of a trend in our favor (save the Canadian...but how can we evn consider that possibility when nothing else supports it?). Can we just stick a fork in this one? We're still 4-5 days away and there are enough pieces unresolved to leave us hanging. Obviously a southern hit is favored but there is no way you can say with 100% certainty that we are out yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're still 4-5 days away and there are enough pieces unresolved to leave us hanging. Obviously a southern hit is favored but there is no way you can say with 100% certainty that we are out yet. True... hopefully there are some EPS members that show up that look somewhat decent for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I think the worst part about this was when the GFS FV3 backed off a bit. I was really holding high hopes for the model but it was on an island by itself for a while, and quite honestly the last thing we need is another model that just serves to give us some hope to grasp onto. Hopefully they all come back around to a solid hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This sounds like a losing battle...If it was gonna work out, surely we'd see evidence of some sort of a trend in our favor (save the Canadian...but how can we evn consider that possibility when nothing else supports it?). Can we just stick a fork in this one? we are still well outside of the range where we can throw in the towel on this. While the odds dont look good the northern stream is still jumping around with every model run and there is time for that to become better modeled. Bottom line the odds are not great but i wouldnt toss in the towel unless this model run occurred 72 hours out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: We're still 4-5 days away and there are enough pieces unresolved to leave us hanging. Obviously a southern hit is favored but there is no way you can say with 100% certainty that we are out yet. Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that? Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 the euro EPS has been useless...even a hindrance. It gave us 6-8 inches at 00z snow mean. Then the 12z euro comes out and gives us nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that? Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north? we have numerous examples of beinf in the bullseye 4 days out only to see our storm end up too far north by gametime. not saying thats the case but we have been burned many times inside of this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that? Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north? I think the 12”+ idea at this point is ludicrous and off the table but maybe it can trend far enough north to give us 6 hours of mod snow and 3-6” or something of the sort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I think the 12”+ idea at this point is ludicrous and off the table but maybe it can trend far enough north to give us 6 hours of mod snow and 3-6” or something of the sort I think that may even be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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